Multi-site calibration and validation of SWAT with satellite-based evapotranspiration in a data-sparse catchment in southwestern Nigeria

The main objective of this study was to calibrate and validate the eco-hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with satellite-based actual evapotranspiration (AET) data from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM_v3.0a) and from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Global Evaporation (MOD16) for the Ogun River Basin (20&thinsp;292&thinsp;km2) located in southwestern Nigeria. Three potential evapotranspiration (PET) equations (Hargreaves, Priestley–Taylor and Penman–Monteith) were used for the SWAT simulation of AET. The reference simulations were the three AET variables simulated with SWAT before model calibration took place. The sequential uncertainty fitting technique (SUFI-2) was used for the SWAT model sensitivity analysis, calibration, validation and uncertainty analysis. The GLEAM_v3.0a and MOD16 products were subsequently used to calibrate the three SWAT-simulated AET variables, thereby obtaining six calibrations–validations at a monthly timescale. The model performance for the three SWAT model runs was evaluated for each of the 53 subbasins against the GLEAM_v3.0a and MOD16 products, which enabled the best model run with the highest-performing satellite-based AET product to be chosen. A verification of the simulated AET variable was carried out by (i) comparing the simulated AET of the calibrated model to GLEAM_v3.0b AET, which is a product that has different forcing data than the version of GLEAM used for the calibration, and (ii) assessing the long-term average annual and average monthly water balances at the outlet of the watershed. Overall, the SWAT model, composed of the Hargreaves PET equation and calibrated using the GLEAM_v3.0a data (GS1), performed well for the simulation of AET and provided a good level of confidence for using the SWAT model as a decision support tool. The 95&thinsp;% uncertainty of the SWAT-simulated variable bracketed most of the satellite-based AET data in each subbasin. A validation of the simulated soil moisture dynamics for GS1 was carried out using satellite-retrieved soil moisture data, which revealed good agreement. The SWAT model (GS1) also captured the seasonal variability of the water balance components at the outlet of the watershed. This study demonstrated the potential to use remotely sensed evapotranspiration data for hydrological model calibration and validation in a sparsely gauged large river basin with reasonable accuracy. The novelty of the study is the use of these freely available satellite-derived AET datasets to effectively calibrate and validate an eco-hydrological model for a data-scarce catchment.</p

Knowledge of risk factors, beliefs and practices of female healthcare professionals towards breast cancer in a tertiary institution in Lagos, Nigeria

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Breast cancer is the leading female malignancy in Nigeria. Screening for early detection has led to reduction in mortality from the disease. It is known that attitudes of physicians and motivation by community nurses influence uptake of screening methods by women. This study aims to investigate knowledge of breast cancer risk factors, beliefs about treatment and practice of screening methods among a cohort of female healthcare professionals in Lagos, Nigeria.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional study was conducted using a self-administered questionnaire to assess the knowledge of breast cancer risk factors, beliefs about treatment and practice of screening methods among 207 female doctors, nurses and other healthcare professionals working in a university teaching hospital in Lagos, Nigeria. Stratified random sampling method was employed. Chi square test, analysis of variance and Mantel-Haenszel test were performed in data analysis using SPSS v10.0 and Epi Info version 6 statistical packages.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Female doctors obtained a mean knowledge score of 74% and were the only professional group that had satisfactory knowledge of risk factors. Majority (86%) believed that early breast cancer is curable while half of participants believed that prayer can make breast cancer disappear from the affected breast. Eighty three percent practice breast self-examination (BSE) once a month and only 8% have ever had a mammogram. Age, knowledge of risk factors, profession and beliefs were not significantly associated with rate of BSE in this study.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Results from this study suggest the need for continuing medical education programmes aimed at improving knowledge of breast cancer among female healthcare providers other than doctors.</p

Pattern and determinants of BCG immunisation delays in a sub-Saharan African community

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Childhood immunisation is recognised worldwide as an essential component of health systems and an indispensable indicator of quality of care for vaccine-preventable diseases. While performance of immunisation programmes is more commonly measured by coverage, ensuring that every child is immunised at the earliest/appropriate age is an important public health goal. This study therefore set out to determine the pattern and predictors of Bacille de Calmette-Guérin (BCG) immunisation delays in the first three months of life in a Sub-Saharan African community where BCG is scheduled at birth in order to facilitate necessary changes in current policy and practices for improved services.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional study in which immunisation delays among infants aged 0-3 months attending community-based BCG clinics in Lagos, Nigeria over a 2-year period from July 2005 to June 2007 were assessed by survival analysis and associated factors determined by multivariable logistic regression. Population attributable risk (PAR) was computed for the predictors of delays.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>BCG was delayed beyond three months in 31.6% of all eligible infants. Of 5171 infants enrolled, 3380 (65.4%) were immunised within two weeks and a further 1265 (24.5%) by six weeks. A significantly higher proportion of infants born in hospitals were vaccinated in the first six weeks compared to those born outside hospitals. Undernourishment was predictive of delays beyond 2 and 6 weeks while treated hyperbilirubinaemia was associated with decreased odds for any delays. Lack of antenatal care and multiple gestations were also predictive of delays beyond 6 weeks. Undernourishment was associated with the highest PAR for delays beyond 2 weeks (18.7%) and 6 weeks (20.8%).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>BCG immunisation is associated with significant delays in this setting and infants at increased risk of delays can be identified and supported early possibly through improved maternal uptake of antenatal care. Combining BCG with subsequent immunisation(s) at 6 weeks for infants who missed the BCG may be considered.</p

Increase in EPI vaccines coverage after implementation of intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in infant with Sulfadoxine -pyrimethamine in the district of Kolokani, Mali: Results from a cluster randomized control trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Even though the efficacy of Intermittent Preventive Treatment in infants (IPTi) with Sulfadoxine-Pyrimethamine (SP) against clinical disease and the absence of its interaction with routine vaccines of the Expanded Immunization Programme (EPI) have been established, there are still some concerns regarding the addition of IPTi, which may increase the work burden and disrupt the routine EPI services especially in Africa where the target immunization coverage remains to be met. However IPTi may also increase the adherence of the community to EPI services and improve EPI coverage, once the benefice of strategy is perceived.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To assess the impact of IPTi implementation on the coverage of EPI vaccines, 22 health areas of the district of Kolokani were randomized at a 1:1 ratio to either receive IPTi-SP or to serve as a control. The EPI vaccines coverage was assessed using cross-sectional surveys at baseline in November 2006 and after one year of IPTi pilot-implementation in December 2007.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At baseline, the proportion of children of 9-23 months who were completely vaccinated (defined as children who received BGG, 3 doses of DTP/Polio, measles and yellow fever vaccines) was 36.7% (95% CI 25.3% -48.0%). After one year of implementation of IPTi-SP using routine health services, the proportion of children completely vaccinated rose to 53.8% in the non intervention zone and 69.5% in the IPTi intervention zone (P <0.001).</p> <p>The proportion of children in the target age groups who received IPTi with each of the 3 vaccinations DTP2, DTP3 and Measles, were 89.2% (95% CI 85.9%-92.0%), 91.0% (95% CI 87.6% -93.7%) and 77.4% (95% CI 70.7%-83.2%) respectively. The corresponding figures in non intervention zone were 2.3% (95% CI 0.9% -4.7%), 2.6% (95% CI 1.0% -5.6%) and 1.7% (95% CI 0.4% - 4.9%).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study shows that high coverage of the IPTi can be obtained when the strategy is implemented using routine health services and implementation results in a significant increase in coverage of EPI vaccines in the district of Kolokani, Mali.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00766662">NCT00766662</a></p

Who attends antenatal care and expanded programme on immunization services in Chad, Mali and Niger? the implications for insecticide-treated net delivery

UNLABELLED: ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Malaria remains one of the largest public health problems facing the developing world. Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are an effective intervention against malaria. ITN delivery through routine health services, such as antenatal care (ANC) and childhood vaccination (EPI), is a promising channel of delivery to reach individuals with the highest risk (pregnant women and children under five years old). Decisions on whether to deliver ITNs through both channels depends upon the reach of each of these systems, whether these are independent and the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of each. Predictors of women attending ANC and EPI separately have been studied, but the predictors of those who attend neither service have not been identified. METHODS: Data from Chad, Mali and Niger demographic and health surveys (DHS) were analyzed to determine risk factors for attending neither service. A conceptual framework for preventative health care-seeking behaviour was created to illustrate the hierarchical relationships between the potential risk factors. The independence of attending both ANC and EPI was investigated. A multivariate model of predictors for non-attendance was developed using logistic regression. RESULTS: ANC and EPI attendance were found to be strongly associated in all three countries. However, 47% of mothers in Chad, 12% in Mali and 36% in Niger did not attend either ANC or EPI. Region, mother's education and partner's education were predictors of non-attendance in all three countries. Wealth index, ethnicity, and occupation were associated with non-attendance in Mali and Niger. Other predictors included religion, healthcare autonomy, household size and number of children under five. CONCLUSIONS: Attendance of ANC and EPI are not independent and therefore the majority of pregnant women in these countries will have the opportunity to receive ITNs through both services. Although attendance at ANC and EPI are not independent, delivery through both systems may still add incrementally to delivery through one alone. Therefore, there is potential to increase the proportion of women and children receiving ITNs by delivering through both of these channels. However, modelling is required to determine the level of attendance and incremental potential at which it's cost effective to deliver through both services

Prescribing indicators at primary health care centers within the WHO African region: a systematic analysis (1995-2015)

Abstract Background Rational medicine use is essential to optimize quality of healthcare delivery and resource utilization. We aim to conduct a systematic review of changes in prescribing patterns in the WHO African region and comparison with WHO indicators in two time periods 1995–2005 and 2006–2015. Methods Systematic searches were conducted in PubMed, Scopus, Web of science, Africa-Wide Nipad, Africa Journals Online (AJOL), Google scholar and International Network for Rational Use of Drugs (INRUD) Bibliography databases to identify primary studies reporting prescribing indicators at primary healthcare centres (PHCs) in Africa. This was supplemented by a manual search of retrieved references. We assessed the quality of studies using a 14-point scoring system modified from the Downs and Black checklist with inclusions of recommendations in the WHO guidelines. Results Forty-three studies conducted in 11 African countries were included in the overall analysis. These studies presented prescribing indicators based on a total 141,323 patient encounters across 572 primary care facilities. The results of prescribing indicators were determined as follows; average number of medicines prescribed per patient encounter = 3.1 (IQR 2.3–4.8), percentage of medicines prescribed by generic name =68.0 % (IQR 55.4–80.3), Percentage of encounters with antibiotic prescribed =46.8 % (IQR 33.7–62.8), percentage of encounters with injection prescribed =25.0 % (IQR 18.7–39.5) and the percentage of medicines prescribed from essential medicines list =88.0 % (IQR 76.3–94.1). Prescribing indicators were generally worse in private compared with public facilities. Analysis of prescribing across two time points 1995–2005 and 2006–2015 showed no consistent trends. Conclusions Prescribing indicators for the African region deviate significantly from the WHO reference targets. Increased collaborative efforts are urgently needed to improve medicine prescribing practices in Africa with the aim of enhancing the optimal utilization of scarce resources and averting negative health consequences

Panel 6 : Vaccines

Objective. To review the literature on progress regarding (1) effectiveness of vaccines for prevention of otitis media (OM) and (2) development of vaccine antigens for OM bacterial and viral pathogens. Data Sources. PubMed database of the National Library of Science. Review Methods. We performed literature searches in PubMed for OM pathogens and candidate vaccine antigens, and we restricted the searches to articles in English that were published between July 2011 and June 2015. Panel members reviewed literature in their area of expertise. Conclusions. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are somewhat effective for the prevention of pneumococcal OM, recurrent OM, OM visits, and tympanostomy tube insertions. Widespread use of PCVs has been associated with shifts in pneumococcal serotypes and bacterial pathogens associated with OM, diminishing PCV effectiveness against AOM. The 10-valent pneumococcal vaccine containing Haemophilus influenzae protein D (PHiD-CV) is effective for pneumococcal OM, but results from studies describing the potential impact on OM due to H influenzae have been inconsistent. Progress in vaccine development for H influenzae, Moraxella catarrhalis, and OM-associated respiratory viruses has been limited. Additional research is needed to extend vaccine protection to additional pneumococcal serotypes and other otopathogens. There are likely to be licensure challenges for protein-based vaccines, and data on correlates of protection for OM vaccine antigens are urgently needed. Implications for Practice. OM continues to be a significant health care burden globally. Prevention is preferable to treatment, and vaccine development remains an important goal. As a polymicrobial disease, OM poses significant but not insurmountable challenges for vaccine development.Peer reviewe