The surprising implications of familial association in disease risk

Background: A wide range of diseases show some degree of clustering in families; family history is therefore an important aspect for clinicians when making risk predictions. Familial aggregation is often quantified in terms of a familial relative risk (FRR), and although at first glance this measure may seem simple and intuitive as an average risk prediction, its implications are not straightforward. Methods: We use two statistical models for the distribution of disease risk in a population: a dichotomous risk model that gives an intuitive understanding of the implication of a given FRR, and a continuous risk model that facilitates a more detailed computation of the inequalities in disease risk. Published estimates of FRRs are used to produce Lorenz curves and Gini indices that quantifies the inequalities in risk for a range of diseases. Results: We demonstrate that even a moderate familial association in disease risk implies a very large difference in risk between individuals in the population. We give examples of diseases for which this is likely to be true, and we further demonstrate the relationship between the point estimates of FRRs and the distribution of risk in the population. Conclusions: The variation in risk for several severe diseases may be larger than the variation in income in many countries. The implications of familial risk estimates should be recognized by epidemiologists and clinicians.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figure

Crystal Structure of PrgI-SipD: Insight into a Secretion Competent State of the Type Three Secretion System Needle Tip and its Interaction with Host Ligands

Many infectious Gram-negative bacteria, including Salmonella typhimurium, require a Type Three Secretion System (T3SS) to translocate virulence factors into host cells. The T3SS consists of a membrane protein complex and an extracellular needle together that form a continuous channel. Regulated secretion of virulence factors requires the presence of SipD at the T3SS needle tip in S. typhimurium. Here we report three-dimensional structures of individual SipD, SipD in fusion with the needle subunit PrgI, and of SipD:PrgI in complex with the bile salt, deoxycholate. Assembly of the complex involves major conformational changes in both SipD and PrgI. This rearrangement is mediated via a π bulge in the central SipD helix and is stabilized by conserved amino acids that may allow for specificity in the assembly and composition of the tip proteins. Five copies each of the needle subunit PrgI and SipD form the T3SS needle tip complex. Using surface plasmon resonance spectroscopy and crystal structure analysis we found that the T3SS needle tip complex binds deoxycholate with micromolar affinity via a cleft formed at the SipD:PrgI interface. In the structure-based three-dimensional model of the T3SS needle tip, the bound deoxycholate faces the host membrane. Recently, binding of SipD with bile salts present in the gut was shown to impede bacterial infection. Binding of bile salts to the SipD:PrgI interface in this particular arrangement may thus inhibit the T3SS function. The structures presented in this study provide insight into the open state of the T3SS needle tip. Our findings present the atomic details of the T3SS arrangement occurring at the pathogen-host interface

Improved representation of the diurnal variation of warm season precipitation by an atmospheric general circulation model at a 10 km horizontal resolution

This study investigates the diurnal variation of the warm season precipitation simulated by the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 atmospheric general circulation model for 2??years (2005???2006) at a horizontal resolution of 10??km. The simulation was validated with the satellite-derived Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 precipitation data and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications atmospheric reanalysis for atmospheric winds and moisture. The simulation is compared with the coarse-resolution run in 50??km to examine the impacts driven by resolution change. Overall, the 10??km model tends to reproduce the important features of the observed diurnal variation, such as the amplitude and phase at which precipitation peaks in the evening on land and in the morning over the ocean, despite an excessive amplitude bias over land. The model also reproduces the realistic propagation patterns of precipitation in the vicinity of ocean coasts and major mountains. The regional characteristics of the diurnal precipitation over two regions, the Bay of Bengal and the Great Plains in North America, are examined in detail, where the observed diurnal cycle exhibits a systematic transition in the peak phase due to the development and propagation of regional-scale convective systems. The model is able to reproduce this pattern as well as the diurnal variation of low-level wind and moisture convergence; however, it is less effective at representing the nocturnal peak of precipitation over the Great Plains. The model results suggest that increasing the horizontal resolution of the model to 10??km substantially improves the representation of the diurnal precipitation cycle. However, intrinsic model deficiencies in topographical precipitation and the accurate representation of mesoscale convective systems remain a challenge

Difficult tracheal intubation in neonates and infants. NEonate and Children audiT of Anaesthesia pRactice IN Europe (NECTARINE): a prospective European multicentre observational study

Background: Neonates and infants are susceptible to hypoxaemia in the perioperative period. The aim of this study was to analyse interventions related to anaesthesia tracheal intubations in this European cohort and identify their clinical consequences. Methods: We performed a secondary analysis of tracheal intubations of the European multicentre observational trial (NEonate and Children audiT of Anaesthesia pRactice IN Europe [NECTARINE]) in neonates and small infants with difficult tracheal intubation. The primary endpoint was the incidence of difficult intubation and the related complications. The secondary endpoints were the risk factors for severe hypoxaemia attributed to difficult airway management, and 30 and 90 day outcomes. Results: Tracheal intubation was planned in 4683 procedures. Difficult tracheal intubation, defined as two failed attempts of direct laryngoscopy, occurred in 266 children (271 procedures) with an incidence (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 5.8% (95% CI, 5.1e6.5). Bradycardia occurred in 8% of the cases with difficult intubation, whereas a significant decrease in oxygen saturation (SpO2<90% for 60 s) was reported in 40%. No associated risk factors could be identified among comorbidities, surgical, or anaesthesia management. Using propensity scoring to adjust for confounders, difficult anaesthesia tracheal intubation did not lead to an increase in 30 and 90 day morbidity or mortality. Conclusions: The results of the present study demonstrate a high incidence of difficult tracheal intubation in children less than 60 weeks post-conceptual age commonly resulting in severe hypoxaemia. Reassuringly, the morbidity and mortality at 30 and 90 days was not increased by the occurrence of a difficult intubation event. Clinical trial registration: NCT02350348

Difficult tracheal intubation in neonates and infants. NEonate and Children audiT of Anaesthesia pRactice IN Europe (NECTARINE): a prospective European multicentre observational study

BACKGROUND: Neonates and infants are susceptible to hypoxaemia in the perioperative period. The aim of this study was to analyse interventions related to anaesthesia tracheal intubations in this European cohort and identify their clinical consequences. METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis of tracheal intubations of the European multicentre observational trial (NEonate and Children audiT of Anaesthesia pRactice IN Europe [NECTARINE]) in neonates and small infants with difficult tracheal intubation. The primary endpoint was the incidence of difficult intubation and the related complications. The secondary endpoints were the risk factors for severe hypoxaemia attributed to difficult airway management, and 30 and 90 day outcomes. RESULTS: Tracheal intubation was planned in 4683 procedures. Difficult tracheal intubation, defined as two failed attempts of direct laryngoscopy, occurred in 266 children (271 procedures) with an incidence (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 5.8% (95% CI, 5.1–6.5). Bradycardia occurred in 8% of the cases with difficult intubation, whereas a significant decrease in oxygen saturation (SpO2<90% for 60 s) was reported in 40%. No associated risk factors could be identified among co-morbidities, surgical, or anaesthesia management. Using propensity scoring to adjust for confounders, difficult anaesthesia tracheal intubation did not lead to an increase in 30 and 90 day morbidity or mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the present study demonstrate a high incidence of difficult tracheal intubation in children less than 60 weeks post-conceptual age commonly resulting in severe hypoxaemia. Reassuringly, the morbidity and mortality at 30 and 90 days was not increased by the occurrence of a difficult intubation event

Morbidity and mortality after anaesthesia in early life: results of the European prospective multicentre observational study, neonate and children audit of anaesthesia practice in Europe (NECTARINE)

Background: Neonates and infants requiring anaesthesia are at risk of physiological instability and complications, but triggers for peri-anaesthetic interventions and associations with subsequent outcome are unknown. Methods: This prospective, observational study recruited patients up to 60 weeks' postmenstrual age undergoing anaesthesia for surgical or diagnostic procedures from 165 centres in 31 European countries between March 2016 and January 2017. The primary aim was to identify thresholds of pre-determined physiological variables that triggered a medical intervention. The secondary aims were to evaluate morbidities, mortality at 30 and 90 days, or both, and associations with critical events. Results: Infants (n=5609) born at mean (standard deviation [SD]) 36.2 (4.4) weeks postmenstrual age (35.7% preterm) underwent 6542 procedures within 63 (48) days of birth. Critical event(s) requiring intervention occurred in 35.2% of cases, mainly hypotension (&gt;30% decrease in blood pressure) or reduced oxygenation (SpO2 &lt;85%). Postmenstrual age influenced the incidence and thresholds for intervention. Risk of critical events was increased by prior neonatal medical conditions, congenital anomalies, or both (relative risk [RR]=1.16; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04–1.28) and in those requiring preoperative intensive support (RR=1.27; 95% CI, 1.15–1.41). Additional complications occurred in 16.3% of patients by 30 days, and overall 90-day mortality was 3.2% (95% CI, 2.7–3.7%). Co-occurrence of intraoperative hypotension, hypoxaemia, and anaemia was associated with increased risk of morbidity (RR=3.56; 95% CI, 1.64–7.71) and mortality (RR=19.80; 95% CI, 5.87–66.7). Conclusions: Variability in physiological thresholds that triggered an intervention, and the impact of poor tissue oxygenation on patient's outcome, highlight the need for more standardised perioperative management guidelines for neonates and infants. Clinical trial registration: NCT02350348

Morbidity and mortality after anaesthesia in early life: results of the European prospective multicentre observational study, neonate and children audit of anaesthesia practice in Europe (NECTARINE)

BACKGROUND: Neonates and infants requiring anaesthesia are at risk of physiological instability and complications, but triggers for peri-anaesthetic interventions and associations with subsequent outcome are unknown. METHODS: This prospective, observational study recruited patients up to 60 weeks' postmenstrual age undergoing anaesthesia for surgical or diagnostic procedures from 165 centres in 31 European countries between March 2016 and January 2017. The primary aim was to identify thresholds of pre-determined physiological variables that triggered a medical intervention. The secondary aims were to evaluate morbidities, mortality at 30 and 90 days, or both, and associations with critical events. RESULTS: Infants (n=5609) born at mean (standard deviation [sd]) 36.2 (4.4) weeks postmenstrual age (35.7% preterm) underwent 6542 procedures within 63 (48) days of birth. Critical event(s) requiring intervention occurred in 35.2% of cases, mainly hypotension (>30% decrease in blood pressure) or reduced oxygenation (SpO2 <85%). Postmenstrual age influenced the incidence and thresholds for intervention. Risk of critical events was increased by prior neonatal medical conditions, congenital anomalies, or both (relative risk [RR]=1.16; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04–1.28) and in those requiring preoperative intensive support (RR=1.27; 95% CI, 1.15–1.41). Additional complications occurred in 16.3% of patients by 30 days, and overall 90-day mortality was 3.2% (95% CI, 2.7–3.7%). Co-occurrence of intraoperative hypotension, hypoxaemia, and anaemia was associated with increased risk of morbidity (RR=3.56; 95% CI, 1.64–7.71) and mortality (RR=19.80; 95% CI, 5.87–66.7). CONCLUSIONS: Variability in physiological thresholds that triggered an intervention, and the impact of poor tissue oxygenation on patient's outcome, highlight the need for more standardised perioperative management guidelines for neonates and infants