Inventory of Research on the Impacts of Climate Change

Climate change is one of the greatest threats for the global environment today. Global mean temperature has risen by about 0.6 degrees C during the 20th century, greater than during any other century in the last 1000 years. Subsequently, climate change is likely to have detrimental effects on all global natural and anthropogenic systems. Climate change will have consequences for the structure and function of ecosystems and all the major global biomes. Also agricultural production and productivity will alter, and physical effects will take place on the environment affecting those that inhabit it. For example, sea level rise and climatic variations will have implications for human health, land use and coastal infrastructure. This report aims to identify the current and proposed research and assessments being undertaken by international organizations as well as the major national research groups regarding climate change and its effects on ecosystems, on agriculture (including fisheries and forestry) and on the economy and human society. The report also identifies possible gaps in this research. The IPCC, basing its assessment on peer reviewed and published scientific/ technical literature, plays a main role in summarizing climate change research and forming a worldwide consensus on future scenarios. The IPCC published its Third Assessment Report in 2001. Global research on the effects of climate change amongst the world's ecosystems is being undertaken and/or coordinated by organizations such as FAO, UNEP, UNDP, the World Conservation Union (IUCN), the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). They work on several crosscutting projects in climate change and terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity. The World Bank is sponsoring numerous projects worldwide to promote research in the subject. Higher latitudes are covered by bodies such as the British Antarctic Survey, the Canadian Institute for Climate Studies and the Nordic Arctic Research Programme among others. In middle latitudes, many leading research groups in Western countries are working on this topic. Research on ecosystem impacts of climate change in lower tropical latitudes include effects of sea surface temperature warming on coral reefs by Coral Reef Degradation of the Indian Ocean (CORDIO) Programme. Gaps through the relative neglect of research into other tropical ecosystems is, however, noticeable. The impacts of climate change on agriculture are complex and uncertain. The FAO's Global Terrestrial Observation System Programme and START's Global Change program, takes a long-term predictive approach to its research. A large number of national and regional agencies fund or undertake work throughout the world, such as NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the WMO's Agricultural Meteorology Programme. National programs include the Canadian Climate Impact and Adaptation Research Network as well as work in New Zealand through the use of models and data sets to predict climate effects on agriculture and horticulture, by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. In the United Kingdom, the Climate Impact Programme (UKCIP) is one of the active players in the field. In the US, the Department of Agriculture has commissioned a number of studies on climate change impacts on US agriculture. Work on the effects on forestry appears to be split between large international agencies such as IUCN and the projects under the framework of the World Bank, and again extensive national projects by the Canadians and their CIARN Forest Sector programs among others. Global warming could have many impacts on fisheries and other aquatic and marine resources. The UNEP-World Conservation Monitoring Centre is undertaking a Changing Oceans project and the UNESCO Global Oceans Observation System Programme, involving other bodies susch as UNEP WMO and FAO. The US Global Oceans Ecosystems Dynamics project is a multi-disciplinary program to examine the potential impacts of global climate change in marine ecosystems. Research on the impacts of climate change on the economy and human society is reasonably comprehensive. Several academic institutions such as the Centre for Marine and Climate Research in Germany and the Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, and the Climatic Research Unit, both working from the University of East Anglia have regional research projects in various regions of the world such as developing African states and low-lying small island states. In Germany, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) is also focusing on socio-economic issues while Norway has the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO). Finally, the Tyndall Centre and the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), both in the UK are actively involved in the economic and human dimension of climate change impacts. Based on the survey and on IPCC and UNFCCC Reports, several gaps were identified in climate change research regarding the motioned topics: -- Much of the climate change predictions made are gradual, continuous changes. A science that focuses on discontinuities (tipping points, thresholds, etc.) rather than mean changes and gradual response curves is only developing slowly. -- Much climate change research has focused on a one century time scale. Very little attention has been paid to the evolution of climatic risks over the next 20 years. Climate change scenarios are distinct from present risk (control runs are very poor surrogates for present climate experience) and a 3-10 year time scale of climate prediction remains difficult. Yet, this remains the relevant time scale for policy making, vulnerability assessment and the like. -- Climate change impact research in developing countries is hindered by the virtual absence of good long-term data. Monitoring programs are needed in a variety of areas, such as land-use, ecosystem data, socio-economics, etc. -- Most work in agriculture and fisheries focuses on middle latitude issues. However, in developing countries, the issue of food security should not be neglected. -- Most research has been sectoral, yet there is a need to focus on the interactions between different sectors in society; -- Most research has looked at impacts of one specific stressor, yet there is a need to further our understanding on the cumulative effects of multiple stresses and at different spatial scales; -- Relatively little work has been carried out on vulnerability and integrated risk assessment; Enhanced risks from climate change need to be seen in the light of existing risks, e.g. flooding, hurricanes, environmental, health, political, social, etc. Relevant profiles of vulnerability should be provided and integrated risk management tools should be applied to identify and evaluate how best to cope with climate change related risks. This should also include economic risk assessment. -- Economic impact research has often taken an engineering approach, i.e. the economic loss was calculated as the loss in physical terms times the price based on a marginal analysis. Yet, actual losses need to be based on the total economic changes in terms of quantity and price in the various sectors based on induced changes in demand and supply, and trade, etc. -- Much research has focused on the impact of climate change on ecosystems and natural resources. Yet, the impacts on humans in their livelihood systems (e.g. human access to natural resources) and other socio-economic linkages as a result of these changes are largely unknown. The social/cultural complexity, especially in developing countries in the context of climate change needs to be studied in depth, as well as issues of induced possible demographic shifts and land-use changes. -- Vulnerability and impact studies, especially in developing countries, need to focus more on impacts on poverty and on the poorest segments in society, given that so much of the aid flows focus on poverty alleviation. The research should address the question how climate change impacts poverty incidence, both rural and urban. -- Disasters linked to climate change can lead to economic and political instability, e.g. related to water scarcity exacerbated by climate change. Hardly any research has been done in this area thus far. Though not the focus of the survey here, major gaps exist in our understanding of climate change adaptation. In fact, in this area, much more policy relevant research is needed, for instance in preventing mal-adaptation and encouraging no-regret policies and measures. Health impacts of climate change, e.g. malaria outbraeaks have only been studied in some areas in the world thus far

The Environmental Impacts of the Gulf War 1991

The environmental consequences of the Gulf War in 1991 affected the air, the marine environment, and the terrestrial ecosystem. Various scenarios and forecasts had been made before the war about the possible and probable impacts under different conditions. The follow-up studies have showed a rather different picture than what had been forecasted. When considering the various aspects of air and atmospheric pollution, in brief summary, the following observations have been made: In early 1991 more than 800 oil wells were blown up, of these more than 600 caught fire and burned with flames and about 50 wells gushed oil onto the ground. During the period up to October 1991 all the wells were capped. The maximum amount of oil and gas in the oil fires was about 355,000 tons and 35 million m3 respectively per day. The soot emissions for the burning oil and gas has been estimated to about 20,000 tons per day and the total SO2 emission about 24,000 tons per day. The CO2 emission from the burning oil and gas in Kuwait has been estimated to about 130 to 140 million tons corresponding to 2-3% of the global annual anthropogenic contribution from the use of fossil and recent fuels and only 0.1% of the total global CO2 emission. Levels of particles in the air a few kilometers from the burning oil fields was in the order of about 10 5 per cm3. this corresponds to 10% of the global contribution from anthropogenic burning of recent and fossil fuels. Most of the soot particles accumulated at altitudes between 1000 and 3000 meters and very little contamination reached higher than 5000 meters. As a result the soot did not spread over large areas but fell out with rain and dew mostly over the Arabian Peninsula. The high volume of particles in the air had a very pronounced effect on the climate in Kuwait and in the neighboring countries. Temperatures were up to 10 degrees C lower than under normal years. Soot and oil covered extensive areas in Kuwait, Northern Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. the vegetation as well as wildlife was exposed to this fallout but no or very scattered information is available about environmental aspects. The oil from the oil wells formed networks of rivers and lakes on land. The total volume of oil din these lakes and rivers has been estimated to between 10 and 20 million tons. During 1991, up to 200 km2 of ground was covered with oil forming about 250 lakes. In 1992 the figure had decresaed to about 50 km2, partly due to weathering, penetrating of oil into the ground, coverage of oil by dust and sand, and physical removal. The oil has subsequently the ground to varying depth, depending on the nature of underlying soil. The total area of oil lakes calculated based on satellite image in 1998 was about 24 km2. However, at that stage much of the surface area of the oil lakes were covered by sand and could hardly be observed from the sky. The "marine environment" was exposed to large quantities of petroleum hydrocarbons, the volume of the spills has been estimated to between 1 and 1.7 million tons. the oil was released from tank farms on land (Al Ahmadi North), oil loading terminals (Sea Island and Mina Al-Bakr (Iraq)) and from oil carriers anchored along the Kuwait coast. the spill was broken up from several smaller spills which contaminated most of the Saudi Arabian coastline. About 700 km of Saudi Arabian shoreline consisting of sand, gravel, wetlands, lagoons, and muddy tidal flats and a total of the surfacve area of about 34 km2 was contaminated. Some oil ended up on the beaches of Kuwait, Iran, Bahrain, and Qatar but generally these countries were less affected. The oil on the SAudi Arabian coastline ende up in shallow lagoons, wetlands and flats covered with vegetation. Here the oil caused considerable damage and caused primarily by the physical characteristics of the oil on the vegetation and on animals in the intertidal zone. Hence most of the mangroves and marshes in the wetlands along the affected coast was destroyed by the oil. Fifty to 90% of the fauna of these areas, mainly crabs, amphipoda and molluscs, were also killed by the oil. Already within a year natural cleanup process had removed most of the oil from hard surfaces and decresed the quantities considerably in areas with sand and mud. About three years after the spill most of the fauna had re-colonized the lower sections of the beach, and the recovery on the upper sections were underway. About 10 years after the spill, weathered and underground oil were still present on some beaches. The large-scale clean-up that was carried out after the spill in many areas did contribute to incresing the damage and spreading the oil into previously unaffected areas. Studies from different subtidal areas along the Saudi Arabian coast on sand, mud and rock bottoms and in sea-grass beds showed minor or no effects at all among the fauna and flora at 1 to 6 meters depth and deeper areas. Several investigations were carried out to study the impacts on soral reefs along the coast but these studies did not reveal any significant effects, particularly in the reefs off the Saudi coast. Also the fish fauna appeared to have survived intact. About 75 to 80% of the sun's radiation was absorbed and the remainder was scatttered by the smoke in the super composite plume and this resulted in a drop in the temperature by up to 10 degrees C in Kuwait and in the Northern Saudi Arabia. Also as far away as 250 km from the burning Kuwait oil fileds a reduction in mid day temperature of 5-8 degrees C was recorded. Also seawater temperatures in the Gulf were considerably lower during 1991 as conpared to previous years. This drop of seawater temperature during spring-summer period of 1991 was considered more damaging to fish and prawns than the oil spills. Seabirds and waders were affected by direct oiling of feathers and due to intake of oil primarily through preening. It has been estimated that between 22 and 50% of the populations of several species of cormorants and grebes died as a result of the spill. Investigations of the presence of waders on the shores made during the acute phase of the war a reduction by almost 100% and most of the birds found were contaminated by oil. It was estimated that about 100,000 waders were killed directly or indirectly by the oil spill in 1991. Investigations of the marine turtles showed that green turtles nested at normal rates and with a hatching success similar to the figures for the figures for the years previous to the spill. For hawksbills the number of nests were normal but the hatching rate was much lower than normal. Approximately 50 dugongs and several times as many dolphins were found dead on the beaches of Saudi Arabia after that spill. In total over 84,000 tons of bombs were dropped over an area of about 4,000 square miles during 43 days of war. The military casualties and the allied side was 149 dead and another 513 wounded. In the years after the war between 50 and 100 allied soldiers were killed in connection with mine clearance. The total loses of Iraqi soldiers were much higher, probably more than 100,000 during 43 days of war. Nearly 25,000 died during the mass retreat. In addition at least another 100,000 Iraqi military were wounded, the majority of whom later died due to lack of medical facilities and medicine. Between 400 and 600 Kuwaiti civilians were killed directly during the war. In addition an astimated 2,000 died due to consequences of the war. Between 15,000 and 16,000 civilians spent time in prison during and after the war. In additio there have been more than 1,500 civilian mine and ammunition victims in Kuwait since August 1990. Furthermore a large portion of the Kuwaiti population suffered various psychosomatic disorders, so called Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PSTD) several years after the war. Another consequence of the war is that crime and violence has become more common in Kuwait. Between 2,500 to 3,000 Iraqi civilians died directly as a result of the allied bombardment. However, Iraqi civilians suffered much larger casualties as indirect consequences of the war dring the period 1991-2001. Figures are not known but several hundred thousand civilian, including infants and children, have probably died due to the lack of medicine, hospital supplies, and medical services. Other studies indicate that more than 46,900 children under five years age died between January and August 1991 due to the war and its aftermath. In addition about 100,000 Kurds in the north and Shiites in the south of Iraq died and many more suffered from heavy repression in the civil unrest immediately after the war. Other reports indicate increseased child mortality among children in Iraq, in excess of 40,000 per year during the period 1992-1998

Measuring Polynomial Invariants of Multi-Party Quantum States

We present networks for directly estimating the polynomial invariants of multi-party quantum states under local transformations. The structure of these networks is closely related to the structure of the invariants themselves and this lends a physical interpretation to these otherwise abstract mathematical quantities. Specifically, our networks estimate the invariants under local unitary (LU) transformations and under stochastic local operations and classical communication (SLOCC). Our networks can estimate the LU invariants for multi-party states, where each party can have a Hilbert space of arbitrary dimension and the SLOCC invariants for multi-qubit states. We analyze the statistical efficiency of our networks compared to methods based on estimating the state coefficients and calculating the invariants.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, RevTex4, v2 references update

NGC 7331: the Galaxy with the Multicomponent Central Region

We present the results of the spectral investigation of the regular Sb galaxy NGC 7331 with the Multi-Pupil Field Spectrograph of the 6m telescope. The absorption-line indices H-beta, Mgb, and are mapped to analyse the properties of the stellar populations in the circumnuclear region of the galaxy. The central part of the disk inside ~3" (200 pc) -- or a separate circumnuclear stellar-gaseous disk as it is distinguished by decoupled fast rotation of the ionized gas -- is very metal-rich, rather young, ~ 2 billion years old, and its solar magnesium-to-iron ratio evidences for a very long duration of the last episode of star formation there. However the gas excitation mechanism now in this disk is shock-like. The star-like nucleus had probably experienced a secondary star formation burst too: its age is 5 billion years, much younger than the age of the circumnuclear bulge. But [Mg/Fe]=+0.3 and only solar global metallicity imply that the nuclear star formation burst has been much shorter than that in the circumnuclear disk. The surrounding bulge is rather old, 9--14 billion years old, and moderately metal-poor. The rotation of the stars and gas within the circumnuclear disk is axisymmetric though its rotation plane may be slightly inclined to the global plane of the galaxy. Outside the circumnuclear disk the gas may experience non-circular motions, and we argue that the low-contrast extended bulge of NGC 7331 is triaxial.Comment: LATEX, 27 pages, + 15 Postscript figures. Accepted to Astronomical Journal, July issu

Inhibition of platelet mediated arterial thrombosis and platelet granule exocytosis by 3'4'-dihydroxyflavonol and quercetin

Flavonols are polyphenolic compounds with broad-spectrum kinase inhibitory, as well as potent anti-oxidant and anti-inflammatory properties. Anti-platelet potential of quercetin (Que) and several related flavonoids have been reported; however, few studies have assessed the ability of flavonols to inhibit exocytosis of different platelet granules or to inhibit thrombus formation in vivo. 3′,4′-Dihydroxyflavonol (DiOHF) is a flavonol which is structurally related to Que and has been shown to have greater anti-oxidant capacity and to improve the endothelial function in the context of diabetes and ischaemia/reperfusion injury. While the structural similarity to Que suggests DiOHF may have a potential to inhibit platelet function, no studies have assessed the anti-platelet potential of DiOHF. We therefore investigated platelet granule inhibition and potential to delay arterial thrombosis by Que and DiOHF. Both Que and DiOHF showed inhibition of collagen, adenosine diphosphate and arachidonic acid stimulated platelet aggregation, agonist-induced GPIIb/IIIa activation as demonstrated by PAC-1 and fibrinogen binding. While both flavonols inhibited agonist-induced granule exocytosis, greater inhibition of dense granule exocytosis occurred with DiOHF as measured by both ATP release and flow cytometry. In contrast, while Que inhibited agonist-induced P-selectin expression, as measured by both platelet surface P-selectin expression and upregulation of surface GPIIIa expression, inhibition by DiOHF was not significant for either parameter. C57BL/6 mice treated with 6 mg kg-1 IV Que or DiOHF maintained greater blood flow following FeCl3-induced carotid artery injury when compared to the vehicle control. We provide evidence that Que and DiOHF improve blood flow following arterial injury in part by attenuating platelet granule exocytosis

Clostridium perfringens epsilon toxin induces blood brain barrier permeability via caveolae-dependent transcytosis and requires expression of MAL.

Clostridium perfringens epsilon toxin (ETX) is responsible for causing the economically devastating disease, enterotoxaemia, in livestock. It is well accepted that ETX causes blood brain barrier (BBB) permeability, however the mechanisms involved in this process are not well understood. Using in vivo and in vitro methods, we determined that ETX causes BBB permeability in mice by increasing caveolae-dependent transcytosis in brain endothelial cells. When mice are intravenously injected with ETX, robust ETX binding is observed in the microvasculature of the central nervous system (CNS) with limited to no binding observed in the vasculature of peripheral organs, indicating that ETX specifically targets CNS endothelial cells. ETX binding to CNS microvasculature is dependent on MAL expression, as ETX binding to CNS microvasculature of MAL-deficient mice was not detected. ETX treatment also induces extravasation of molecular tracers including 376Da fluorescein salt, 60kDA serum albumin, 70kDa dextran, and 155kDA IgG. Importantly, ETX-induced BBB permeability requires expression of both MAL and caveolin-1, as mice deficient in MAL or caveolin-1 did not exhibit ETX-induced BBB permeability. Examination of primary murine brain endothelial cells revealed an increase in caveolae in ETX-treated cells, resulting in dynamin and lipid raft-dependent vacuolation without cell death. ETX-treatment also results in a rapid loss of EEA1 positive early endosomes and accumulation of large, RAB7-positive late endosomes and multivesicular bodies. Based on these results, we hypothesize that ETX binds to MAL on the apical surface of brain endothelial cells, causing recruitment of caveolin-1, triggering caveolae formation and internalization. Internalized caveolae fuse with early endosomes which traffic to late endosomes and multivesicular bodies. We believe that these multivesicular bodies fuse basally, releasing their contents into the brain parenchyma

The flavonols quercetin and 3', 4'-dihydroxyflavonol reduce platelet function and delay thrombus formation in a model of type 1 diabetes.

Diabetes is associated with increased cardiovascular risk. We have recently shown that the naturally occurring flavonol quercetin (Que) or the synthetic flavonol 3,4-dihydroxyflavonol (DiOHF) inhibits platelet function and delays thrombus formation in healthy mice. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the effect of Que or DiOHF treatment on platelet function and ferric chloride-induced carotid artery thrombosis in a mouse model of type 1 diabetes. Diabetic mice treated with Que or DiOHF maintained blood flow at a significantly higher level than untreated diabetic mice at the end of the recording period. In addition, treatment with Que or DiOHF significantly reduced diabetes-induced platelet hyper-aggregability in response to platelet agonist stimulation. Furthermore, treatment with Que or DiOHF significantly inhibited dense, but not alpha, granule exocytosis in diabetic and control mice. Our demonstration that flavonols delay thrombus formation in diabetes suggests a potential clinical role for these compounds in anti-platelet therapy

Specific mapping of disease resistance genes in tetraploid cut roses

Control of fungal diseases is a major constraint of cut-rose cultivation in greenhouses and in transportation around the world. Therefore, development of resistant cultivars is a promising way to reduce the use of chemicals required for controlling the diseases. Genetic analyses and breeding for resistance, however, are hampered by the high degree of heterozygosity and the polyploid nature of cultivated roses. Nucleotide-binding site (NBS) profiling of Van der Linden et al. (2004) was used as a tool enabling a more directed way of studying the genetics of resistance to pathogens responsible for diseases such as powdery mildew. NBS profiling is a multiplex screening technique, producing amplified resistance gene (R-gene) and resistance gene analogue (RGA) fragments by using degenerated primers based on the conserved motifs present in the NBS domain of resistance genes. Since RGAs are abundantly distributed and highly polymorphic within the plant genome, NBS profiling generates multiple markers of putative resistance genes. Twelve NBS degenerated primer/ restriction enzyme combinations were used to genotype the whole rose tetraploid K5 population (Yan, 2005) and its parents. To generate RGA profiles, the restriction enzymes: AluI, HaeIII, Mse and RsaI were used in combination with degenerated primers NBS1, NBS3, and NBS5a6. The profiles were dominantly scored resulting in 106 polymorphic RGA markers which segregated in a 1:1 or 3:1 ratio. Uni-and bi-parental simplex markers will be mapped on the two available AFLP/SSR K5 maps (Yan, 2005) with Joinmap 4.0. The resulting parental tetraploid maps will be used to dissect the genetic variation for resistance to powdery mildew resistance. Additional Rosaceae SSRs mentioned in the literature are currently tested on the K5 population to obtain allelic bridges between the tetraploid and diploid genetic maps in rose and related species in order to align them. These bridges will improve cross-ploidy comparisons in roses in order to strengthen cut rose breedin

NMR quantum computation with indirectly coupled gates

An NMR realization of a two-qubit quantum gate which processes quantum information indirectly via couplings to a spectator qubit is presented in the context of the Deutsch-Jozsa algorithm. This enables a successful comprehensive NMR implementation of the Deutsch-Jozsa algorithm for functions with three argument bits and demonstrates a technique essential for multi-qubit quantum computation.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figures. 10 additional figures illustrating output spectr

Role of Visual Dysfunction in Postural Control in Children With Cerebral Palsy

Introduction: Deficient postural control is one of the key problems in cerebral palsy (CP). Little, however, is known about the specific nature of postural problems of children with CP, nor of the relation between abnormal posture and dysfunction of the visual system. Aim of the study: To provide additional information on the association of abnormalities in postural control and visual dysfunction of the anterior or posterior part of the visual system. Methods: Data resulting from ophthalmologic, orthoptic, neurological, neuro-radiological, and ethological investigations of more than 313 neurologically impaired children were retrospectively analyzed. Results: Abnormal postural control related to ocular and ocular motor disorders consisted of anomalous head control and subsequent abnormal head posture and torticollis. The abnormal postural control related to retrochiasmatical damage of the visual system consisted of a torticollis combined with adjustment of the upper part of the body, as if at the same time adapting to a combination of defects and optimizing residual visual functions. Conclusion: Visual dysfunctions play a distinct role in the postural control of children with CP