Predicting approximate seismic responses in multistory buildings from real-time earthquake source information, for earthquake early warning applications

Regional earthquake early warning (EEW) alerts and related risk-mitigation actions are often triggered when the expected value of a ground-motion intensity measure (IM), computed from real-time magnitude and source location estimates, exceeds a predefined critical IM threshold. However, the shaking experienced in mid- to high-rise buildings may be significantly different from that on the ground, which could lead to sub-optimal decision-making (i.e., increased occurrences of false and missed EEW alarms) with the aforementioned strategy. This study facilitates an important advancement in EEW decision-support, by developing empirical models that directly relate earthquake source parameters to resulting approximate responses in multistory buildings. The proposed models can leverage real-time earthquake information provided by a regional EEW system, to provide rapid predictions of structure-specific engineering demand parameters that can be used to more accurately determine whether or not an alert is triggered. We use a simplified continuum building model consisting of a flexural/shear beam combination and vary its parameters to capture a wide range of deformation modes in different building types. We analyse the approximate responses for the building model variations, using Italian accelerometric data and corresponding source parameter information from 54 earthquakes. The resulting empirical prediction equations are incorporated in a real-time Bayesian framework that can be used for building-specific EEW applications, such as (1) early warning of floor-shaking sensed by occupants; and (2) elevator control. Finally, we demonstrate the improvement in EEW alert accuracy that can be achieved using the proposed models

A Review of the Technical and Socio-Organizational Components of Earthquake Early Warning Systems

Every year, natural hazards affect millions of people around the world, causing significant economic and life losses. The rapid progress of technology and advances in understanding of the highly complex physical phenomena related to various natural hazards have promoted the development of new disaster-mitigation tools, such as earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. However, there is a general lack of integration between the multi- and cross-disciplinary elements of EEW, limiting its effectiveness and applications for end users. This paper reviews the current state-of-the-art in EEW, exploring both the technical components (i.e., seismological and engineering) as well as the socio-organizational components (i.e., social science, policy, and management) of EEW systems. This includes a discussion of specific evidence from case studies of Italy, United States’ West Coast, Japan, and Mexico, where EEW systems have reached varying levels of maturity. Our aim is to highlight necessary improvements for increasing the effectiveness of the technical aspects of EEW in terms of their implications on operational, political/legal, social, behavioral, and organizational drivers. Our analysis suggests open areas for research, associated with: 1) the information that needs to be included in EEW alerts to implement successful mitigation actions at both individual and organizational levels; 2) the need for response training to the community by official bodies, such as civil protection; 3) existing gaps in the attribution of accountability and development of liability policies involving EEW implementation; 4) the potential for EEW to increase seismic resilience of critical infrastructure and lifelines; 5) the need for strong organizational links with first responders and official EEW bodies; and 6) the lack of engineering-related (i.e., risk and resilience) metrics currently used to support decision making related to the triggering of alerts by various end users

Typification and taxonomic remarks on five species names in Cytisus (Fabaceae)

This paper deals with the typification and taxonomy of five Mediterranean Cytisus species. Cytisus affinis, C. candidus, and C. spinescens nom. illeg., non Sieber ex Spreng. were described from Sicily by Karel Borivoj Presl, Cytisus spinescens was described from Apulia (southern Italy) by Curt Polycarp Joachim Sprengel, and C. villosus was described from southern France by Pierre Andre Pourret (1788). Lectotypes are here designated for Presl and Sprengel's names. A neotype is designated for C. villosus. The taxonomic revision of these five names confirmed that C. villosus Pourr. (= Cytisus affinis C. Presl) is the name to be used for the species occurring in the large part of the Mediterranean countries. Cytisus spinescens Sieber ex Spreng. (≡ C. candidus C. Presl = C. spinescens C. Presl, nom. illeg.) is the correct name for the amphi-adriatic species occurring in peninsular Italy, and along the NE coast of the Adriatic Sea. This species does not occur in Sicily and reference to this latter region in the protologues of both C. spinescens C. Presl and C. candidus C. Presl is a misinterpretation due, possibly, to exchange of labels

Bulk-sensitive photoemission spectroscopy of A_2FeMoO_6 double perovskites (A=Sr, Ba)

Electronic structures of Sr_2FeMoO_6 (SFMO) and Ba_2FeMoO_6 (BFMO) double perovskites have been investigated using the Fe 2p->3d resonant photoemission spectroscopy (PES) and the Cooper minimum in the Mo 4d photoionization cross section. The states close to the Fermi level are found to have strongly mixed Mo-Fe t_{2g} character, suggesting that the Fe valence is far from pure 3+. The Fe 2p_{3/2} XAS spectra indicate the mixed-valent Fe^{3+}-Fe^{2+} configurations, and the larger Fe^{2+} component for BFMO than for SFMO, suggesting a kind of double exchange interaction. The valence-band PES spectra reveal good agreement with the LSDA+U calculation.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Rational Pension Reform

This paper is motivated by the idea to create, wherever possible, rational mechanisms that adapt pension systems automatically to a changed economic and demographic environment, rather than to leave such adaptations to discretionary high-profile pension reforms which all too often stir political opposition. The paper delineates the theory behind such rational mechanisms, shows the advantages and limits of „self-stabilizing“ pension systems, and compares the Swedish and the German approaches to rule-bound pension policy

Identification of the chromosome complement and the spontaneous 1R/1V translocations in allotetraploid Secale cereale × Dasypyrum villosum hybrids through cytogenetic approaches

Genome modifications that occur at the initial interspecific hybridization event are dynamic and can be consolidated during the process of stabilization in successive generations of allopolyploids. This study identifies the number and chromosomal location of ribosomal DNA (rDNA) sites between Secale cereale, Dasypyrum villosum, and their allotetraploid S. cereale × D. villosum hybrids. For the first time, we show the advantages of FISH to reveal chromosome rearrangements in the tetraploid Secale × Dasypyrum hybrids. Based on the specific hybridization patterns of ribosomal 5S, 35S DNA and rye species-specific pSc200 DNA probes, a set of genotypes with numerous Secale/Dasypyrum translocations of 1R/1V chromosomes were identified in successive generations of allotetraploid S. cereale × D. villosum hybrids. In addition we analyse rye chromosome pairs using FISH with chromosome-specific DNA sequences on S. cereale × D. villosum hybrids

The Farm, the city, and the emergence of social security

We study the social, demographic and economic origins of social security. The data for the U.S. and for a cross section of countries suggest that urbanization and industrialization are associated with the rise of social insurance. We describe an OLG model in which demographics, technology, and social security are linked together in a political economy equilibrium. In the model economy, there are two locations (sectors), the farm (agricultural) and the city (industrial) and the decision to migrate from rural to urban locations is endogenous and linked to productivity differences between the two locations and survival probabilities. Farmers rely on land inheritance for their old age and do not support a pay-as-you-go social security system. With structural change, people migrate to the city, the land loses its importance and support for social security arises. We show that a calibrated version of this economy, where social security taxes are determined by majority voting, is consistent with the historical transformation in the United States

How do risk attitudes affect measured confidence?

We examine the relationship between confidence in own absolute performance and risk attitudes using two confidence elicitation procedures: self-reported (non-incentivised) confidence and an incentivised procedure that elicits the certainty equivalent of a bet based on performance. The former procedure reproduces the “hard-easy effect” (underconfidence in easy tasks and overconfidence in hard tasks) found in a large number of studies using non-incentivised self-reports. The latter procedure produces general underconfidence, which is significantly reduced, but not eliminated when we filter out the effects of risk attitudes. Finally, we find that self-reported confidence correlates significantly with features of individual risk attitudes including parameters of individual probability weighting

The Negative Feedback-Loop between the Oncomir Mir-24-1 and Menin Modulates the Men1 Tumorigenesis by Mimicking the “Knudson’s Second Hit”

Multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1 (MEN1) syndrome is a rare hereditary cancer disorder characterized by tumors of the parathyroids, of the neuroendocrine cells, of the gastro-entero-pancreatic tract, of the anterior pituitary, and by non-endocrine neoplasms and lesions. MEN1 gene, a tumor suppressor gene, encodes menin protein. Loss of heterozygosity at 11q13 is typical of MEN1 tumors, in agreement with the Knudson’s two-hit hypothesis. In silico analysis with Target Scan, Miranda and Pictar-Vert softwares for the prediction of miRNA targets indicated miR-24-1 as capable to bind to the 3′UTR of MEN1 mRNA. We investigated this possibility by analysis of miR-24-1 expression profiles in parathyroid adenomatous tissues from MEN1 gene mutation carriers, in their sporadic non-MEN1 counterparts, and in normal parathyroid tissue. Interestingly, the MEN1 tumorigenesis seems to be under the control of a “negative feedback loop” between miR-24-1 and menin protein, that mimics the second hit of Knudson’s hypothesis and that could buffer the effect of the stochastic factors that contribute to the onset and progression of this disease. Our data show an alternative way to MEN1 tumorigenesis and, probably, to the “two-hit dogma”. The functional significance of this regulatory mechanism in MEN1 tumorigenesis is also the basis for opening future developments of RNA antagomir(s)-based strategies in the in vivo control of tumorigenesis in MEN1 carriers