Monetary policy with model uncertainty: distribution forecast targeting

We examine optimal and other monetary policies in a linear-quadratic setup with a relatively general form of model uncertainty, so-called Markov jump-linear-quadratic systems extended to include forward-looking variables. The form of model uncertainty our framework encompasses includes : simple i.i.d. model deviations; serially correlated model deviations; estimable regimeswitching models; more complex structural uncertainty about very different models, for instance, backward- and forward-looking models; time-varying central-bank judgment about the state of model uncertainty; and so forth. We provide an algorithm for finding the optimal policy as well as solutions for arbitrary policy functions. This allows us to compute and plot consistent distribution forecasts "fan charts" of target variables and instruments. Our methods hence extend certainty equivalence and "mean forecast targeting" to more general certainty non-equivalence and "distribution forecast targeting." --Optimal policy,multiplicative uncertainty

A high-input impedance differential millivolt meter for use with solid ceramic oxygen electrolyte cells

Design factors are given for a high-input impedance differential millivolt meter designed, built, and tested as an inexpensive solid-state electronic system for use in measuring the electromotive force from solid ceramic oxygen electrolyte cells. A schematic diagram is included

Responses of Coccidia-Vaccinated Broilers to Essential Oil Blends Supplementation up to Forty-Nine Days of Age

Coccidiosis control may become a greater problem as the use of growth-promoting antibiotics (GPA) and ionophores declines. Vaccination with live oocysts may turn into a popular alternative to the use of coccidiostats in broilers, although cocci vaccination is frequently linked to temporary lower performance in young flocks. This experiment evaluates the dietary supplementation of 2 specific essential oil (EO) blends (Crina Poultry and Crina Alternate), either as alternatives to GPA and ionophores (BMD + Coban) or as feed additives that help to improve the performance of cocci-vaccinated broilers. Live performance and lesion scores were observed. These 2 specific EO blends differ in their efficacy to promote growth. Chickens that were not cocci vaccinated and were fed Crina Poultry had better feed conversion ratio (FCR) than the unmedicated control treatment in the starter period. The same EO improved FCR in cocci-vaccinated birds in the finisher period in comparison to the negative control group, but those responses were not significantly different from other treatments or significant at 49 d of age. No significant differences were observed in lesion scores at 37 d. Diets supplemented with a GPA-ionophore combination consistently supported the best BW gain and FCR in each period and the entire grow-out period. No significant beneficial or deleterious effects on live performance were observed due to these specific EO blends in cocci-vaccinated broilers

Low temperatures impact species distributions of jumping spiders across a desert elevational cline.

Temperature is known to influence many aspects of organisms and is frequently linked to geographical species distributions. Despite the importance of a broad understanding of an animal's thermal biology, few studies incorporate more than one metric of thermal biology. Here we examined an elevational assemblage of Habronattus jumping spiders to measure different aspects of their thermal biology including thermal limits (CTmin, CTmax), thermal preference, V̇CO2 as proxy for metabolic rate, locomotor behavior and warming tolerance. We used these data to test whether thermal biology helped explain how species were distributed across elevation. Habronattus had high CTmax values, which did not differ among species across the elevational gradient. The highest-elevation species had a lower CTmin than any other species. All species had a strong thermal preference around 37 °C. With respect to performance, one of the middle elevation species was significantly less temperature-sensitive in metabolic rate. Differences between species with respect to locomotion (jump distance) were likely driven by differences in mass, with no differences in thermal performance across elevation. We suggest that Habronattus distributions follow Brett's rule, a rule that predicts more geographical variation in cold tolerance than heat. Additionally, we suggest that physiological tolerances interact with biotic factors, particularly those related to courtship and mate choice to influence species distributions. Habronattus also had very high warming tolerance values (> 20 °C, on average). Taken together, these data suggest that Habronattus are resilient in the face of climate-change related shifts in temperature

Sampling Time Effects for Persistence and Survival in Step Structural Fluctuations

The effects of sampling rate and total measurement time have been determined for single-point measurements of step fluctuations within the context of first-passage properties. Time dependent STM has been used to evaluate step fluctuations on Ag(111) films grown on mica as a function of temperature (300-410 K), on screw dislocations on the facets of Pb crystallites at 320K, and on Al-terminated Si(111) over the temperature range 770K - 970K. Although the fundamental time constant for step fluctuations on Ag and Al/Si varies by orders of magnitude over the temperature ranges of measurement, no dependence of the persistence amplitude on temperature is observed. Instead, the persistence probability is found to scale directly with t/Dt where Dt is the time interval used for sampling. Survival probabilities show a more complex scaling dependence which includes both the sampling interval and the total measurement time tm. Scaling with t/Dt occurs only when Dt/tm is a constant. We show that this observation is equivalent to theoretical predictions that the survival probability will scale as Dt/L^z, where L is the effective length of a step. This implies that the survival probability for large systems, when measured with fixed values of tm or Dt should also show little or no temperature dependence.Comment: 27 pages, 10 figure

The Roles of Flourishing and Spirituality in Millenials’ Leadership Development Activity

Confronted by today’s epidemic of corporate meltdowns, broken institutional paradigms, unethical decision-making, and demand for innovative competencies in order to remain competitive, educators and researchers are challenged to examine how today’s future leaders develop the skill and will to be effective. Whether labeled GenY, Generation Next, Generation Tech or Millennials (i.e. individuals born between 1982 and 2003), this group of change agents differs in attitudes, behaviors, and intrinsic and extrinsic motivations from older generations (e.g. Taylor & Keeter, 2010; Twenge, Campbell & Freeman, 2012). The scholarly debate on the role of meaning making (Park, 2005) describes the Millennial on a continuum from being community-minded and actively seeking meaning (e.g. Drath & Palus, 1994; Gehrke, 2008) to being less interested in meaning making and purpose (Twenge et al., 2012). This study examines the relationships between two meaning making constructs, flourishing and religiosity, and proactive leadership development in college students (N=282). Both flourishing and religiosity were significantly related to leadership development, and the relationship between flourishing and leadership development was partially accounted for by perceived climate for leadership development. Our study has implications for both researchers and educators as we seek to understand how Millennials develop into values-based leaders