After the epidemic: Zika virus projections for Latin America and the Caribbean

Background: Zika is one of the most challenging emergent vector-borne diseases, yet its future public health impact remains unclear. Zika was of little public health concern until recent reports of its association with congenital syndromes. By 3 August 2017 ~217,000 Zika cases and ~3,400 cases of associated congenital syndrome were reported in Latin America and the Caribbean. Some modelling exercises suggest that Zika virus infection could become endemic in agreement with recent declarations from the The World Health Organisation. Methodology/Principal findings: We produced high-resolution spatially-explicit projections of Zika cases, associated congenital syndromes and monetary costs for Latin America and the Caribbean now that the epidemic phase of the disease appears to be over. In contrast to previous studies which have adopted a modelling approach to map Zika potential, we project case numbers using a statistical approach based upon reported dengue case data as a Zika surrogate. Our results indicate that ~12.3 (0.7–162.3) million Zika cases could be expected across Latin America and the Caribbean every year, leading to ~64.4 (0.2–5159.3) thousand cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome and ~4.7 (0.0–116.3) thousand cases of microcephaly. The economic burden of these neurological sequelae are estimated to be USD ~2.3 (USD 0–159.3) billion per annum. Conclusions/Significance: Zika is likely to have significant public health consequences across Latin America and the Caribbean in years to come. Our projections inform regional and federal health authorities, offering an opportunity to adapt to this public health challenge

Dengue virus sero-cross-reactivity drives antibody-dependent enhancement of infection with zika virus

Zika virus (ZIKV) was discovered in 1947 and was thought to lead to relatively mild disease. The recent explosive outbreak of ZIKV in South America has led to widespread concern, with reports of neurological sequelae ranging from Guillain Barré syndrome to microcephaly. ZIKV infection has occurred in areas previously exposed to dengue virus (DENV), a flavivirus closely related to ZIKV. Here we investigated the serological cross-reaction between the two viruses. Plasma immune to DENV showed substantial cross-reaction to ZIKV and was able to drive antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) of ZIKV infection. Using a panel of human monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) to DENV, we showed that most antibodies that reacted to DENV envelope protein also reacted to ZIKV. Antibodies to linear epitopes, including the immunodominant fusion-loop epitope, were able to bind ZIKV but were unable to neutralize the virus and instead promoted ADE. Our data indicate that immunity to DENV might drive greater ZIKV replication and have clear implications for disease pathogenesis and future vaccine programs for ZIKV and DENV