Long-term cereal price changes: how important is the speculative element

The objective of this article is to provide an analysis of the relationship existing between cereal prices and several variables such as population, income, exports, the exchange rate, and speculation, by using a linear regression analysis. Specific emphasis is placed on the speculative dimension. The methodology used helps us explore the forms of relationships between the different variables, and, more specifically, it gives an insight into the extent of speculation during the recent critical time period. Our results show that speculation (defined by the long position of traders) has played a crucial role during the period June 2001 – December 2009. According to our analysis, speculation it is the most relevant independent variable that affects cereal prices. Exports, in some ways connected to the former variable, occupy second place, in term of significance. However, their impact on cereal prices is less relevant than that of biofuel production. Population growth does not have impact in a positive way on cereal prices; it acts in the opposite direction due to the change in diets, implying that population increases would tend to affect primarily other agricultural markets. Excessive volatility in food prices, as that observed in the last years is a dramatic question. From a demand point of view, consumers in developing countries and vulnerable income groups in other countries (farmers) have to be protected. More than one policy on both international markets and domestic markets have to be introduced so as to lessen food/cereal lower price volatility.cereal prices, future markets and speculation, renewable energy, agricultural demand and supply.

Rice price volatility: a dilemma for public policies in Asia and Europe?

In 2008 the world’s attention was focused on the global food crisis and, as consequence, on the global food security. By mid-2009, commodity prices have dropped sensitively, nevertheless most of them still remain at or above past trend levels. Fluctuations in prices are not rare in agricultural markets where volatility is a common characteristic. Among cereals rice has a strategic importance. It is source of nutrition for more than a half of the world population and of income for about two million of farmers. Even if it is produced and consumed everywhere, production and consumption are concentrated in Asia. Because of its strategic importance, rice is and has been subject to a host of policy interventions that have made it feature among the most distorted of all agricultural commodities. Export policies have typically been applied by net exporting countries and one of the most commonly applied policy measures, adopted by net importing countries, is the removal or reduction of import duties and taxes on food commodities. Various forms of producer support measures were introduced, including input subsidies, output price support and an easing of cropland set-aside requirements. Policies to support consumers and vulnerable groups have included: direct consumer subsidies, tax reductions, distribution from public stocks, price subsidies, public-sector salary increases and social safety net programmes. Self-targeting food-for-work programmes have been put in place by some countries. Although the EU rice trade represents only 0.4 per cent of world trade a common organisation market (COM) for rice was set-up. It is a complex system aiming at maintaining European rice production destined for domestic and external markets. This paper aims to expand the above statements. The objective is to review and compare the policies adopted in Asia and in the EU and assess their impact form the point of sustainability (in a broad sense) with the ultimate aim to advance some interpretations and suggestions in the short and long run, having in mind the variables that affect the supply, the demand and the trade. As a background, the paper first outlines the characteristics of the rice market. Through a regression analysis that could help to understand how the rice price changes. It also considers the policies adopted in Asia and in the EU, highlighting their results on prices from an economic and social point of view. This paper concludes with a number of issues to be borne in mind when interpreting the volatility or rice prices (according to the regression analysis results), the expected policy impact and distortions, and, finally, the “relatively” new strategy: move from food security to self-sufficient food security, one of the long terms goals of the Treaty of Rome (to secure availability of supplies).food security, rice market, public policies, regression analysis

Paying attention to water relations: Poetic inquiry and pedagogical documentation as curious practices

This project explores climate pedagogies with particular interest in Western Australia’s current water crisis. Human and more-than-human relations are explored with young children and educators from an early learning centre in Perth, Western Australia, with a view to reimagining education in the context of rapid environmental change. The project is grounded in feminist new materialist knowledge and is framed by an attentive focus to amplify the non-binary nature of both human and more-than-human counterparts. The research focuses on challenging colonial ways of knowing water, by decentring the child, unsettling norms, and reinstating reciprocity between human and more-than-human others (Nxumalo & Villanueva, 2019). Poetic inquiry as curious practice is explored, and how it highlights the present absences of the mutual becomings of water and child by conducting experimental, creative, and inventive arts-informed explorations with a lens of keeping water in sight and in mind. Videography and photography as tools of pedagogical documentation are a primary data-creation method and are both experimental and creative outputs. The following questions guide the research: 1. How does poetic inquiry as curious practice help me to address children’s relations with water beyond the child/water binary? 2. How does poetic inquiry as curious practice help me to understand poetic characteristics of water such as movement, sound, duration, speed, timing, etc.? 3. How does pedagogical documentation inform poetic data creation and analysis? The project lends itself to radical ways of thinking. It engages with poetic inquiry as curious practice, paying attention to present absences, and examining the poetics of pedagogical documentation to create meaningful data as poetry (Faulkner, 2009; Leavy,2009). Poetic outputs include responses that take the form of video-poems, creative texts, and images with decisions about research direction being made in the moment and in response to grounded experiences. This study contributes to a shift and expansion of pedagogical practices and educators’ understanding of the gaps in current sustainability and environmental education

Reflecting on discovering John Banville as a young reader

Esta seção traz diferentes vozes de escritores que narram sua experiência como leitores do trabalho de John Banville para homenagear seus 50 anos de escrita inspiradora.This section brings different voices from writers who narrate their experience as readers of John Banville’s work to pay tribute to his 50 years of an inspiring writing

The Journey Through Rehabilitation: A Study of People with Acquired Brain Injury in Western Australia

Acquired brain injury is a complex, individualised condition causing lifelong disability and affecting thousands of Australians and their families. Listening and learning from the perspectives of people with Acquired Brain Injuries and their families is essential to improving their experiences as they journey through rehabilitation. A qualitative study hearing the voices of people with ABI, their families and health professionals identified gaps in long-term service provision and the benefits of a 24/7 interprofessional rehabilitation model

Effects of past and current crop management on leaching losses, soil microbial community composition and activity

A lysimeter experiment was conducted to investigate the effect of past and current management practices on soil microbial biomass, activity and community composition. Intact monolith lysimeters were taken from sites of the same soil type that had been under long-term organic and conventional crop management. They were subjected to the same crop rotation and managed according to best organic and conventional practices. Mineral N loss was determined in leachates and soil samples taken before the experiment and after 30 months were analysed for biological soil properties, including microbial diversity. Results indicated that leaching losses were similar for all treatments and that crop was the main influence on microbial biomass composition and size, while microbial activity was determined by management history

Context and Decision: Utility on a Union of Mixture Spaces

Suppose a decision-maker is willing to make statements of the form : I prefer to choose alternative a when in context p, than to choose alternative b when in context q”. Contexts p and q may refer to given probability distributions over a set of states, and b and c to alternatives such as: “turn left” or “turn right” at a junction. In such decision problems, the set of alternatives is discrete and there is a continuum of possible contexts. I assume there is a is a mixture operation on the space of contexts (eg. convex combinations of lotteries), and propose a model that defines preferences over a collection of mixture spaces indexed by a discrete set. The model yields a spectrum of possibilities: some decision-makers are well represented by a standard von Neumann–Morgenstern type of utility function; whilst for others, utility across some or all the mixture spaces is only ordinally comparable. An application to the decision problem of Karni and Safra (2000) leads to a generalization, and shows that state-dependence and comparability are distinct concepts. A final application provides a novel way modeling incomplete preferences and explaining the Allais paradox.

Bayesian Optimisation for Safe Navigation under Localisation Uncertainty

In outdoor environments, mobile robots are required to navigate through terrain with varying characteristics, some of which might significantly affect the integrity of the platform. Ideally, the robot should be able to identify areas that are safe for navigation based on its own percepts about the environment while avoiding damage to itself. Bayesian optimisation (BO) has been successfully applied to the task of learning a model of terrain traversability while guiding the robot through more traversable areas. An issue, however, is that localisation uncertainty can end up guiding the robot to unsafe areas and distort the model being learnt. In this paper, we address this problem and present a novel method that allows BO to consider localisation uncertainty by applying a Gaussian process model for uncertain inputs as a prior. We evaluate the proposed method in simulation and in experiments with a real robot navigating over rough terrain and compare it against standard BO methods.Comment: To appear in the proceedings of the 18th International Symposium on Robotics Research (ISRR 2017