Analysis of uncertainty in health care cost-effectiveness studies: an introduction to statistical issues and methods

Cost-effectiveness analysis is now an integral part of health technology assessment and addresses the question of whether a new treatment or other health care program offers good value for money. In this paper we introduce the basic framework for decision making with cost-effectiveness data and then review recent developments in statistical methods for analysis of uncertainty when cost-effectiveness estimates are based on observed data from a clinical trial. Although much research has focused on methods for calculating confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios using bootstrapping or Fieller’s method, these calculations can be problematic with a ratio-based statistic where numerator and=or denominator can be zero. We advocate plotting the joint density of cost and effect differences, together with cumulative density plots known as cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) to summarize the overall value-for-money of interventions. We also outline the net-benefit formulation of the cost-effectiveness problem and show that it has particular advantages over the standard incremental cost-effectiveness ratio formulation

A knowledge-based framework for service management

peer-reviewedThe purpose of this paper is to investigate how information and communication technologies are used for service standardisation, customisation, and modularisation by knowledge-intensive service firms through the development and empirical validation of a knowledge-based framework. This paper uses 59 in-depth interviews, observational data, and document analysis from case studies of three service-related departments in high-technology, multinational knowledge-intensive business services (KIBSs). Prior research does not conceptualise the relationships between service customisation, standardisation and modularisation. This paper seeks to overcome this gap by integrating insights from research on the role played by both knowledge and information and communication technologies (ICTs) to construct and validate a framework to deal with this gap. It outlines the implications for service firms' use of ICT to deal with increasing knowledge intensity as well as indicating the circumstances under which service knowledge is best customised, standardised and modularised. Further testing in other industries would prove useful in extending the usefulness and applicability of the findings. The originality of the paper lies in developing and validating the first framework to outline the relationship between how service knowledge is customised, standardised or modularised and indicating the associated issues and challenges. It emphasises the role of knowledge and technology. The value of this framework increases as more firms deal with increasing knowledge intensity in the services they provide and in their use of ICTs to reap the benefits of appropriate knowledge reuse.ACCEPTEDpeer-reviewe

Experimental Quantum Hamiltonian Learning

Efficiently characterising quantum systems, verifying operations of quantum devices and validating underpinning physical models, are central challenges for the development of quantum technologies and for our continued understanding of foundational physics. Machine-learning enhanced by quantum simulators has been proposed as a route to improve the computational cost of performing these studies. Here we interface two different quantum systems through a classical channel - a silicon-photonics quantum simulator and an electron spin in a diamond nitrogen-vacancy centre - and use the former to learn the latter's Hamiltonian via Bayesian inference. We learn the salient Hamiltonian parameter with an uncertainty of approximately $10^{-5}$. Furthermore, an observed saturation in the learning algorithm suggests deficiencies in the underlying Hamiltonian model, which we exploit to further improve the model itself. We go on to implement an interactive version of the protocol and experimentally show its ability to characterise the operation of the quantum photonic device. This work demonstrates powerful new quantum-enhanced techniques for investigating foundational physical models and characterising quantum technologies

Pharmacokinetics and tissue distribution of PGG–paclitaxel, a novel macromolecular formulation of paclitaxel, in nu/nu mice bearing NCI-460 lung cancer xenografts

PGG–PTX is a water-soluble formulation of paclitaxel (PTX), made by conjugating PTX to poly(l-γ-glutamylglutamine) acid (PGG) via ester bonds, that spontaneously forms a nanoparticle in aqueous environments. The purpose of this study was to compare the pharmacokinetics and tissue distribution of PTX following injection of either free PTX or PGG–PTX in mice. Both [3H]PTX and PGG–[3H]PTX were administered as an IV bolus injection to mice bearing SC NCI-H460 lung cancer xenografts at a dose of 40-mg PTX equivalents/kg. Plasma, tumor, major organs, urine, and feces were collected at intervals out to 340 h. Total taxanes, taxane extractable into ethyl acetate, and native PTX were quantified by liquid scintillation counting and HPLC. Conjugation of PTX to the PGG polymer increased plasma and tumor C max, prolonged plasma half-life and the period of accumulation in tumor, and reduced washout from tumor. In plasma injection of PGG–PTX increased total taxane AUC0–340 by 23-fold above that attained with PTX. In tumors, it increased the total taxane by a factor of 7.7, extractable taxane by 5.7, and native PTX by a factor of 3.5-fold. Conjugation delayed and reduced total urinary and fecal excretion of total taxanes. Incorporation of PTX into the PGG–PTX polymer significantly prolonged the half-life of total taxanes, extractable taxane, and native PTX in both the plasma and tumor compartments. This resulted in a large increase in the amount of active PTX delivered to the tumor. PGG–PTX is an attractive candidate for further development

Quantitative trait loci conferring grain mineral nutrient concentrations in durum wheat 3 wild emmer wheat RIL population

Mineral nutrient malnutrition, and particularly deficiency in zinc and iron, afflicts over 3 billion people worldwide. Wild emmer wheat, Triticum turgidum ssp. dicoccoides, genepool harbors a rich allelic repertoire for mineral nutrients in the grain. The genetic and physiological basis of grain protein, micronutrients (zinc, iron, copper and manganese) and macronutrients (calcium, magnesium, potassium, phosphorus and sulfur) concentration was studied in tetraploid wheat population of 152 recombinant inbred lines (RILs), derived from a cross between durum wheat (cv. Langdon) and wild emmer (accession G18-16). Wide genetic variation was found among the RILs for all grain minerals, with considerable transgressive effect. A total of 82 QTLs were mapped for 10 minerals with LOD score range of 3.2–16.7. Most QTLs were in favor of the wild allele (50 QTLs). Fourteen pairs of QTLs for the same trait were mapped to seemingly homoeologous positions, reflecting synteny between the A and B genomes. Significant positive correlation was found between grain protein concentration (GPC), Zn, Fe and Cu, which was supported by significant overlap between the respective QTLs, suggesting common physiological and/or genetic factors controlling the concentrations of these mineral nutrients. Few genomic regions (chromosomes 2A, 5A, 6B and 7A) were found to harbor clusters of QTLs for GPC and other nutrients. These identified QTLs may facilitate the use of wild alleles for improving grain nutritional quality of elite wheat cultivars, especially in terms of protein, Zn and Fe

Ecotoxicity Thresholds for Ametryn, Diuron, Hexazinone and Simazine in Fresh and Marine Waters

Triazine and urea herbicides are two groups of photosystem II inhibiting herbicides frequently detected in surface, ground and marine waters. Yet, there are few water quality guidelines for herbicides. Ecotoxicity thresholds (ETs) for ametryn, hexazinone and simazine (triazine herbicides) and diuron (a urea herbicide) were calculated using the Australian and New Zealand method for deriving guideline values to protect fresh and marine ecosystems. Four ETs were derived for each chemical and ecosystem that should theoretically protect 99, 95, 90 and 80% of species (i.e. PC99, PC95, PC90 and PC80, respectively). For all four herbicides, the phototrophic species were significantly more sensitive than non-phototrophic species, and therefore, only the former data were used to calculate the ETs. Comparison of the ET values to measured concentrations in 2606 samples from 15 waterways that discharge to the Great Barrier Reef (2011–2015) found three exceedances of the simazine PC99, regular exceedances (up to 30%) of the PC99 in a limited number of rivers for ametryn and hexazinone and frequent (> 40%) exceedances of the PC99 and PC95 ETs in at least four waterways for diuron. There were no exceedances of the marine ETs in inshore reef areas. Further, ecotoxicity data are required for ametryn and hexazinone to fresh and marine phototrophic species, for simazine to marine phototrophic species, for tropical phototrophic species, repeated pulse exposures and long-term (2 to 12 months) exposures to environmentally relevant concentrations.Griffith Sciences, Griffith Institute for Drug DiscoveryNo Full Tex

Preclinical efficacy studies of a novel nanoparticle-based formulation of paclitaxel that out-performs Abraxane

Poly-(γ-l-glutamylglutamine)–paclitaxel (PGG–PTX) is a novel polymer-based formulation of paclitaxel (PTX) in which the PTX is linked to the polymer via ester bonds. PGG–PTX is of interest because it spontaneously forms very small nanoparticles in plasma. In mouse models, PGG–PTX increased tumor exposure to PTX by 7.7-fold relative to that produced by PTX formulated in Cremophor. In this study, the efficacy of PGG–PTX was compared to that of Abraxane, an established nanoparticular formulation of PTX, in three different tumor models. Efficacy was quantified by delay in tumor growth of NCI H460 human lung cancer, 2008 human ovarian cancer and B16 melanoma xenografts growing in athymic mice following administration of equitoxic doses of PGG–PTX and Abraxane administered on either a single dose or every 7 day schedule. Toxicity was assessed by change in total body weight. The efficacy and toxicity of PGG–PTX was shown to increase with dose in the H460 model. PGG–PTX was ~1.5-fold less potent than Abraxane. PGG–PTX produced statistically significantly greater inhibition of tumor growth than Abraxane in all three tumor models when mice were given single equitoxic doses of drug. When given every 7 days for 3 doses, PGG–PTX produced greater inhibition of tumor growth while generating much less weight loss in mice bearing H460 tumors. PGG–PTX has activity that is superior to that of Abraxane in multiple tumor models. PGG–PTX has the potential to out-perform Abraxane in enhancing the delivery of PTX tumors while at the same time further reducing the toxicity of both single dose and weekly treatment regimens

False Heart Rate Feedback and the Perception of Heart Symptoms in Patients with Congenital Heart Disease and Anxiety

Background Little is known about the mechanisms explaining an increased perception of heart symptoms in congenital heart disease (ConHD). In the present study, it was suggested that a combination of high trait anxiety and disease history increases the perception of heart symptoms. Purpose It was tested whether false heart cues will result in an increased perception of heart symptoms in patients with ConHD and anxiety. Method Thirty-six patients with ConHD and 44 healthy controls performed two exercise tasks. During one of the exercise tasks, participants were exposed to a false heart cue consisting of false heart rate feedback (regular or irregular). Perceived heart symptoms were assessed and heart rate, arterial partial pressure of CO2, and respirator rate were monitored continuously. Results In line with the predictions, false heart rate feedback resulted in an increased perception of heart symptoms in high trait anxious patients with ConHD that could not be explained by acute heart dysfunction. However, unexpectedly, this effect was not observed immediately after the false heart rate feedback task but after a second exercise task without false feedback. Conclusion The results suggest that not the sole presence of ConHD but ConHD in combination with high trait anxiety results in a vulnerability to overperceive heart symptom