Modelling Ireland’s Exchange Rates - From EMS to EMU

This paper attempts to model the nominal and real exchange rate for Ireland, relative to Germany and the UK from 1975 to 2003. It offers an overview of the theory of purchasing power parity (Ppp), focusing particularly on likely sources of nonlinearity. Potential difficulties in placing the analysis in the standard I(1)/I(0) framework are highlighted and comparisons with previous Irish studies are made. Tests for fractional integration and nonlinearity, including random field regressions, are discussed and applied. The results obtained highlight the likely inadequacies of the standard cointegration and Star approaches to modelling, and point instead to multiple structural changes models. Using this approach, both bilateral nominal exchange rates are effectively modelled, and in the case of Ireland and Germany, Ppp is found to be valid not only in the long run, but also in the medium term.Purchasing power parity; fractional Dickey-Fuller tests; smooth transition autoregression; random field regression; multiple structural changes models

Nonlinearity as an Explanation of the Forward Exchange Rate Anomaly

This paper shows that nonlinearity can provide an explanation for the forward exchange rate anomaly (Fama, 1984). Using sterling-Canadian dollar data, and modelling nonlinearity of unspecified form by means of a random field, we find strong evidence of time-wise nonlinearity and, significantly, obtain parameter estimates that conform with theory to a high degree of precision: the anomaly disappears.Forward exchange rate anomaly; nonlinearity; random field regression

Using nutrient utilization patterns to determine the source of Escherichia coli found in surface water

Identifying the sources of fecal contaminants in surface water bodies such as rivers, lakes and beaches is of importance for environmental safety, public health safety, food safety and regulatory purposes. Nutrient utilization patterns (NUPs) were used as a bacterial source tracking technique to identify the possible sources of fecal coliform bacteria, Escherichia coli in Silver Lake, Delaware County, Iowa. A total of three hundred (300) E. coli isolates collected from different sources (water, birds, geese, cattle, hogs and soil contaminated by feces) were analyzed. A database was built from these isolates by using discriminant analysis to identify the nutrient utilization patterns that best classify all 300 isolates by source. The average rate of correct classification by source was 89.5% when applying the nutrient utilization patterns database. After this verification, the NUP for E. coli isolates from Silver Lake water were measured. Based on the NUPs of the Silver Lake isolates, 73.1% were found to originate from cattle and hogs. Smaller percentages were predicted to be coming from birds and geese. None of the isolates were predicted to be originating from the human source. The results indicate that livestock are the primary contributors to fecal pollution in this hypereutrophic Iowa lake.Keywords: Nutrient utilization patterns, Escherichia coli, bacterial source tracking, Silver Lake, Delaware, Iow

Detection of Coronal Mass Ejections in V471 Tauri with the Hubble Space Telescope

V471 Tauri, an eclipsing system consisting of a hot DA white dwarf (WD) and a dK2 companion in a 12.5-hour orbit, is the prototype of the pre-cataclysmic binaries. The late-type component is magnetically active, due to its being constrained to rotate synchronously with the short orbital period. During a program of UV spectroscopy of V471 Tau, carried out with the Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph (GHRS) onboard the Hubble Space Telescope, we serendipitously detected two episodes in which transient absorptions in the Si III 1206 A resonance line appeared suddenly, on a timescale of <2 min. The observations were taken in a narrow spectral region around Ly-alpha, and were all obtained near the two quadratures of the binary orbit, i.e., at maximum projected separation (~3.3 Rsun) of the WD and K star. We suggest that these transient features arise when coronal mass ejections (CME's) from the K2 dwarf pass across the line of sight to the WD. Estimates of the velocities, densities, and masses of the events in V471 Tau are generally consistent with the properties of solar CME's. Given our detection of 2 events during 6.8 hr of GHRS observing, along with a consideration of the restricted range of latitudes and longitudes on the K star's surface that can give rise to trajectories passing in front of the WD as seen from Earth, we estimate that the active V471 Tau dK star emits some 100-500 CME's per day, as compared to 1-3 per day for the Sun. The K dwarf's mass-loss rate associated with CME's is at least (5-25) x 10^{-14} Msun/yr, but it may well be orders of magnitude higher if most of the silicon is in ionization states other than Si III.Comment: 24 pages AASTeX, 4 figures. Accepted by Astrophysical Journa

It is theoretically possible to avoid misfolding into non-covalent lasso entanglements using small molecule drugs

A novel class of protein misfolding characterized by either the formation of non-native noncovalent lasso entanglements in the misfolded structure or loss of native entanglements has been predicted to exist and found circumstantial support through biochemical assays and limited-proteolysis mass spectrometry data. Here, we examine whether it is possible to design small molecule compounds that can bind to specific folding intermediates and thereby avoid these misfolded states in computer simulations under idealized conditions (perfect drug-binding specificity, zero promiscuity, and a smooth energy landscape). Studying two proteins, type III chloramphenicol acetyltransferase (CAT-III) and D-alanyl-D-alanine ligase B (DDLB), that were previously suggested to form soluble misfolded states through a mechanism involving a failure-to-form of native entanglements, we explore two different drug design strategies using coarse-grained structure-based models. The first strategy, in which the native entanglement is stabilized by drug binding, failed to decrease misfolding because it formed an alternative entanglement at a nearby region. The second strategy, in which a small molecule was designed to bind to a non-native tertiary structure and thereby destabilize the native entanglement, succeeded in decreasing misfolding and increasing the native state population. This strategy worked because destabilizing the entanglement loop provided more time for the threading segment to position itself correctly to be wrapped by the loop to form the native entanglement. Further, we computationally identified several FDA-approved drugs with the potential to bind these intermediate states and rescue misfolding in these proteins. This study suggests it is possible for small molecule drugs to prevent protein misfolding of this type

How accurate are polymer models in the analysis of Forster resonance energy transfer experiments on proteins?

Single molecule Forster resonance energy transfer (FRET) experiments are used to infer the properties of the denatured state ensemble (DSE) of proteins. From the measured average FRET efficiency, , the distance distribution P(R) is inferred by assuming that the DSE can be described as a polymer. The single parameter in the appropriate polymer model (Gaussian chain, Wormlike chain, or Self-avoiding walk) for P(R) is determined by equating the calculated and measured . In order to assess the accuracy of this "standard procedure," we consider the generalized Rouse model (GRM), whose properties [ and P(R)] can be analytically computed, and the Molecular Transfer Model for protein L for which accurate simulations can be carried out as a function of guanadinium hydrochloride (GdmCl) concentration. Using the precisely computed for the GRM and protein L, we infer P(R) using the standard procedure. We find that the mean end-to-end distance can be accurately inferred (less than 10% relative error) using and polymer models for P(R). However, the value extracted for the radius of gyration (Rg) and the persistence length (lp) are less accurate. The relative error in the inferred R-g and lp, with respect to the exact values, can be as large as 25% at the highest GdmCl concentration. We propose a self-consistency test, requiring measurements of by attaching dyes to different residues in the protein, to assess the validity of describing DSE using the Gaussian model. Application of the self-consistency test to the GRM shows that even for this simple model the Gaussian P(R) is inadequate. Analysis of experimental data of FRET efficiencies for the cold shock protein shows that at there are significant deviations in the DSE P(R) from the Gaussian model.Comment: 31 pages, 9 figure

Reconstruction and modeling protein translocation and compartmentalization in Escherichia coli at the genome-scale

BackgroundMembranes play a crucial role in cellular functions. Membranes provide a physical barrier, control the trafficking of substances entering and leaving the cell, and are a major determinant of cellular ultra-structure. In addition, components embedded within the membrane participate in cell signaling, energy transduction, and other critical cellular functions. All these processes must share the limited space in the membrane; thus it represents a notable constraint on cellular functions. Membrane- and location-based processes have not yet been reconstructed and explicitly integrated into genome-scale models.ResultsThe recent genome-scale model of metabolism and protein expression in Escherichia coli (called a ME-model) computes the complete composition of the proteome required to perform whole cell functions. Here we expand the ME-model to include (1) a reconstruction of protein translocation pathways, (2) assignment of all cellular proteins to one of four compartments (cytoplasm, inner membrane, periplasm, and outer membrane) and a translocation pathway, (3) experimentally determined translocase catalytic and porin diffusion rates, and (4) a novel membrane constraint that reflects cell morphology. Comparison of computations performed with this expanded ME-model, named iJL1678-ME, against available experimental data reveals that the model accurately describes translocation pathway expression and the functional proteome by compartmentalized mass.ConclusioniJL1678-ME enables the computation of cellular phenotypes through an integrated computation of proteome composition, abundance, and activity in four cellular compartments (cytoplasm, periplasm, inner and outer membrane). Reconstruction and validation of the model has demonstrated that the iJL1678-ME is capable of capturing the functional content of membranes, cellular compartment-specific composition, and that it can be utilized to examine the effect of perturbing an expanded set of network components. iJL1678-ME takes a notable step towards the inclusion of cellular ultra-structure in genome-scale models

Using Genome-scale Models to Predict Biological Capabilities

Constraint-based reconstruction and analysis (COBRA) methods at the genome scale have been under development since the first whole-genome sequences appeared in the mid-1990s. A few years ago, this approach began to demonstrate the ability to predict a range of cellular functions, including cellular growth capabilities on various substrates and the effect of gene knockouts at the genome scale. Thus, much interest has developed in understanding and applying these methods to areas such as metabolic engineering, antibiotic design, and organismal and enzyme evolution. This Primer will get you started

Perinatal outcomes after admission with COVID-19 in pregnancy:a UK national cohort study

There are few population-based studies of sufficient size and follow-up duration to have reliably assessed perinatal outcomes for pregnant women hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 infection. The United Kingdom Obstetric Surveillance System (UKOSS) covers all 194 consultant-led UK maternity units and included all pregnant women admitted to hospital with an ongoing SARS-CoV-2 infection. Here we show that in this large national cohort comprising two years’ active surveillance over four SARS-CoV-2 variant periods and with near complete follow-up of pregnancy outcomes for 16,627 included women, severe perinatal outcomes were more common in women with moderate to severe COVID-19, during the delta dominant period and among unvaccinated women. We provide strong evidence to recommend continuous surveillance of pregnancy outcomes in future pandemics and to continue to recommend SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in pregnancy to protect both mothers and babies

Physiotherapists demonstrate weight stigma: a cross-sectional survey of Australian physiotherapists

Question: Do physiotherapists demonstrate explicit and implicit weight stigma? Design: Cross-sectional survey with partial blinding of participants. Participants responded to the Anti-Fat Attitudes questionnaire and physiotherapy case studies with body mass index (BMI) manipulated (normal or overweight/obese). The Anti-Fat Attitudes questionnaire included 13 items scored on a Likert-type scale from 0 to 8. Any score greater than zero indicated explicit weight stigma. Implicit weight stigma was determined by comparing responses to case studies with people of different BMI categories (where responses were quantitative) and by thematic and count analysis for free-text responses. Participants: Australian physiotherapists (n = 265) recruited via industry networks. Results: The mean item score for the Anti-Fat Attitudes questionnaire was 3.2 (SD 1.1), which indicated explicit weight stigma. The Dislike (2.1, SD 1.2) subscale had a lower mean item score than the Fear (3.9, SD 1.8) and Willpower (4.9, SD 1.5) subscales. There was minimal indication from the case studies that people who are overweight receive different treatment from physiotherapists in clinical parameters such as length of treatment time (p = 0.73) or amount of hands-on treatment (p = 0.88). However, there were indications of implicit weight stigma in the way participants discussed weight in free-text responses about patient management. Conclusion: Physiotherapists demonstrate weight stigma. This finding is likely to affect the way they communicate with patients about their weight, which may negatively impact their patients. It is recommended that physiotherapists reflect on their own attitudes towards people who are overweight and whether weight stigma influences treatment focus