Managing Risk in Projects Large and Small

Risk management—identifying, managing, and mitigat- ing—is built into the project development process for major projects, but it needs to be integrated into every project. This session will discuss how to manage and scale the process using techniques from the I-69 Ohio River Crossing Project

Pauli Error Estimation via Population Recovery

Motivated by estimation of quantum noise models, we study the problem of learning a Pauli channel, or more generally the Pauli error rates of an arbitrary channel. By employing a novel reduction to the "Population Recovery" problem, we give an extremely simple algorithm that learns the Pauli error rates of an $n$-qubit channel to precision $\epsilon$ in $\ell_\infty$ using just $O(1/\epsilon^2) \log(n/\epsilon)$ applications of the channel. This is optimal up to the logarithmic factors. Our algorithm uses only unentangled state preparation and measurements, and the post-measurement classical runtime is just an $O(1/\epsilon)$ factor larger than the measurement data size. It is also impervious to a limited model of measurement noise where heralded measurement failures occur independently with probability $\le 1/4$. We then consider the case where the noise channel is close to the identity, meaning that the no-error outcome occurs with probability $1-\eta$. In the regime of small $\eta$ we extend our algorithm to achieve multiplicative precision $1 \pm \epsilon$ (i.e., additive precision $\epsilon \eta$) using just $O\bigl(\frac{1}{\epsilon^2 \eta}\bigr) \log(n/\epsilon)$ applications of the channel

Brain Activity in Self- and Value-Related Regions in Response to Online Antismoking Messages Predicts Behavior Change

In this study, we combined approaches from media psychology and neuroscience to ask whether brain activity in response to online antismoking messages can predict smoking behavior change. In particular, we examined activity in subregions of the medial prefrontal cortex linked to self- and value-related processing, to test whether these neurocognitive processes play a role in message-consistent behavior change. We observed significant relationships between activity in both brain regions of interest and behavior change (such that higher activity predicted a larger reduction in smoking). Furthermore, activity in these brain regions predicted variance independent of traditional, theory-driven self-report metrics such as intention, self-efficacy, and risk perceptions. We propose that valuation is an additional cognitive process that should be investigated further as we search for a mechanistic explanation of the relationship between brain activity and media effects relevant to health behavior change

Effectiveness of hydrotherapy as an adjunct treatment for the management of breast cancer related lymphoedema in women following breast cancer surgery: a systematic review

Cancer is a leading cause of death and disability around the world. Of all cancers, breast cancer commonly ranks amongst the top three. Surgical intervention for breast cancer is common and a possible side effect of this is breast cancer related lymphoedema (BCRL). Women with breast cancer related lymphoedema commonly have regional limb swelling and pain, which can negatively impact mental and social well-being as well as upper limb function. Hydrotherapy is therapeutic modality which may be used as an adjunct to self-management strategies after the intensive phase of lymphoedema management. Yet despite its popularity, recent research has questioned its effectiveness in clinical practice. Purpose: To determine the effectiveness of hydrotherapy as an adjunct treatment to usual care on arm volume and pain when compared with usual care alone for women with breast cancer related lymphoedema. Method: A comprehensive search of eight electronic databases, including Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Scopus, Web of Science, AMED, The Cochrane Library and PEDro was completed. Studies of adult women with secondary upper limb lymphoedema following breast cancer surgery, which measured lymphoedema volume, pain, upper limb and QOL outcomes were included. Methodological quality was assessed using a modified CASP tool for randomised controlled trials. The NHMRC FORM methodology was utilised to synthesise the evidence and provide an overall grade of recommendation. Results: Four randomised controlled trials and one controlled clinical trial were included in this systematic review. Critical appraisal of the included studies revealed overall methodological quality to be moderate. Hydrotherapy interventions duration varied between 8 to 12 weeks with some similarities between outcome measures assessed. Collectively, there is mixed evidence to support the positive impact of hydrotherapy as an adjunct treatment on reducing lymphoedema volume in the short-term and emerging evidence for upper limb function, pain and QOL. Conclusion: A small number of studies have investigated the effect of hydrotherapy as an adjunct treatment in the breast cancer related lymphoedema population. Hydrotherapy could be considered as an adjunct treatment for women with breast cancer related lymphoedema, although the evidence base is mixed. Hydrotherapy may have positive physiological as well psychosocial impacts, as it is delivered in a group setting. However, the current literature base is limited by small sample size, lack of standardised exercise parameters, inadequate baseline characteristic assessment and limited long-term follow-up

Time-Evolving Dynamics in Brain Networks Forecast Responses to Health Messaging

Neuroimaging measures have been used to forecast complex behaviors, including how individuals change decisions about their health in response to persuasive communications, but have rarely incorporated metrics of brain network dynamics. How do functional dynamics within and between brain networks relate to the processes of persuasion and behavior change? To address this question, we scanned forty-five adult smokers using functional magnetic resonance imaging while they viewed antismoking images. Participants reported their smoking behavior and intentions to quit smoking before the scan and one month later. We focused on regions within four atlas-defined networks and examined whether they formed consistent network communities during this task (measured as allegiance). Smokers who showed reduced allegiance among regions within the default mode and frontoparietal networks also demonstrated larger increases in their intentions to quit smoking one month later. We further examined dynamics of the VMPFC, as activation in this region has been frequently related to behavior change. The degree to which VMPFC changed its community assignment over time (measured as flexibility) was positively associated with smoking reduction. These data highlight the value in considering brain network dynamics for understanding message effectiveness and social processes more broadly

Associations between Coherent Neural Activity

Objective: Worldwide, tobacco use is the leading cause of preventable death and illness. One common strategy for reducing the prevalence of cigarette smoking and other health risk behaviors is the use of graphic warning labels (GWLs). This has led to widespread interest from the perspective of health psychology in understanding the mechanisms of GWL effectiveness. Here we investigated differences in how the brain responds to negative, graphic warning label-inspired antismoking ads and neutral control ads, and we probed how this response related to future behavior. Method: A group of smokers (N = 45) viewed GWL-inspired and control antismoking ads while undergoing fMRI, and their smoking behavior was assessed before and one month after the scan. We examined neural coherence between two regions in the brain’s valuation network, the medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) and ventralstriatum (VS). Results: We found that greater neural coherence in the brain’s valuation network during GWL ads (relative to control ads) preceded later smoking reduction. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the integration of information about message value may be key for message influence. Understanding how the brain responds to health messaging and relates to future behavior could ultimately contribute to the design of effective messaging campaigns, as well as more broadly to theories of message effects and persuasion across domains

Functional Brain Imaging Predicts Public Health Campaign Success

Mass media can powerfully affect health decision-making. Pre-testing through focus groups or surveys is a standard, though inconsistent, predictor of effectiveness. Converging evidence demonstrates that activity within brain systems associated with self-related processing can predict individual behavior in response to health messages. Preliminary evidence also suggests that neural activity in small groups can forecast population-level campaign outcomes. Less is known about the psychological processes that link neural activity and population-level outcomes, or how these predictions are affected by message content. We exposed 50 smokers to antismoking messages and used their aggregated neural activity within a ‘self-localizer’ defined region of medial prefrontal cortex to predict the success of the same campaign messages at the population level (n = 400 000 emails). Results demonstrate that: (i) independently localized neural activity during health message exposure complements existing self-report data in predicting population-level campaign responses (model combined R2 up to 0.65) and (ii) this relationship depends on message content—self-related neural processing predicts outcomes in response to strong negative arguments against smoking and not in response to compositionally similar neutral images. These data advance understanding of the psychological link between brain and large-scale behavior and may aid the construction of more effective media health campaigns

Phosphodiesterase-4D Knock-down in the Prefrontal Cortex Alleviates Chronic Unpredictable Stress-Induced Depressive-Like Behaviors and Memory Deficits in Mice

Phosphodiesterase 4 (PDE4) has four isoforms (PDE4A-D) with at least 25 splice variants. PDE4 subtype nonselective inhibitors produce potent antidepressant-like and cognition-enhancing effects via increased intracellular cyclic AMP (cAMP) signaling in the brain. Our previous data have demonstrated that long-form PDE4Ds appear to be involved in these pharmacological properties of PDE4 inhibitors in the normal animals. However, it is not clear whether long-form PDE4Ds are critical for the behaviors and related cellular signaling/neuronal plasticity/neuroendocrine alterations in the depressed animals. In the present study, animals exposed to the chronic unpredictable stress (CUS), a rodent model of depression, exhibited elevated corticosterone, depressive-like behavior, memory deficits, accompanied with decreased cAMP-PKA-CREB and cAMP-ERK1/2-CREB signaling and neuroplasticity. These alterations induced by CUS were reversed by RNA interference (RNAi)-mediated prefrontal cortex long-form PDE4Ds (especially PDE4D4 and PDE4D5) knock-down, similar to the effects of the PDE4 subtype nonselective inhibitor rolipram. Furthermore, these effects of RNAi were not enhanced by rolipram. These data indicate a predominant role of long-form PDE4Ds in the pharmacotherapies of PDE4 inhibitors for depression and concomitant memory deficits. Long-form PDE4Ds, especially PDE4D4 and PDE4D5, appear to be the promising targets for the development of antidepressants with high therapeutic indices

Taxonomic revision of true morels (Morchella) in Canada and the United States

Recent molecular phylogenetic studies have revealed the existence of at least 50 species of Morchella worldwide and demonstrated a high degree of continental endemism within the genus. Here we describe 19 phylogenetic species of Morchella from North America, 14 of which are new (M. diminutiva, M. virginiana, M. esculentoides, M. prava, M. cryptica, M. frustrata, M. populiphila, M. sextelata, M. septimelata, M. capitata, M. importuna, M. snyderi, M. brunnea and M. septentrionalis). Existing species names (M. rufobrunnea, M. tomentosa, M. punctipes and M. angusticeps) are applied to four phylogenetic species, and formal description of one species (M. sp. Mel-8 ) is deferred pending study of additional material. Methods for assessing morphological features in Morchella are delineated, and a key to the known phylogenetic species of Morchella in North America is provided. Type studies of M. crassistipa, M. hotsonii, M. angusticeps and M. punctipes are provided. Morchella crassistipa is designated nomen dubium

Taxonomic revision of true morels (Morchella) in Canada and the United States

Recent molecular phylogenetic studies have revealed the existence of at least 50 species of Morchella worldwide and demonstrated a high degree of continental endemism within the genus. Here we describe 19 phylogenetic species of Morchella from North America, 14 of which are new (M. diminutiva, M. virginiana, M. esculentoides, M. prava, M. cryptica, M. frustrata, M. populiphila, M. sextelata, M. septimelata, M. capitata, M. importuna, M. snyderi, M. brunnea and M. septentrionalis). Existing species names (M. rufobrunnea, M. tomentosa, M. punctipes and M. angusticeps) are applied to four phylogenetic species, and formal description of one species (M. sp. Mel-8 ) is deferred pending study of additional material. Methods for assessing morphological features in Morchella are delineated, and a key to the known phylogenetic species of Morchella in North America is provided. Type studies of M. crassistipa, M. hotsonii, M. angusticeps and M. punctipes are provided. Morchella crassistipa is designated nomen dubium