Developing composite indices of geographical access and need for nursing home care in Ireland using multiple criteria decision analysis.

Background: Spatial accessibility has consistently been shown to influence utilisation of care and health outcomes, compared against local population needs. We sought to identify how appropriately nursing homes (NHs) are distributed in Ireland, as its NH market lacks central planning. Methods: We used multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approaches to develop composite indices of both access (incorporating measures of availability, choice, quality and affordability) and local NH need for over 65s (relating to the proportion living alone, with cognitive disabilities or with low self-rated health, estimated scores for activities of daily living and instrumental activities of daily living, the average number of disabilities per person and the average age of this group). Data for need were derived from census data. Results were mapped to better understand underlying geographical patterns. Results: By comparing local accessibility and need, underserved areas could be identified, which were clustered particularly in the country's northwest. Suburbs, particularly around Dublin, were by this measure relatively overserved. Conclusions: We have developed multi-dimensional indices of both accessibility to, and need for, nursing home care. This was carried out by combining granular, open data sources and elicited expert/stakeholder opinion from practitioners. Mapping these data helped to highlight clear evidence of inequitable variation in nursing home distribution

Duplex ultrasound in aneurysm surveillance following endovascular aneurysm repair: a comparison with computed tomography aortography

ObjectivesCumulative radiation dose, cost, and increased demand for computed tomography aortography (CTA) suggest that duplex ultrasonography (DU) may be an alternative to CTA-based surveillance. We compared CTA with DU during endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) follow-up.MethodsPatients undergoing EVAR had clinical and radiological follow-up data entered in a prospectively maintained database. For the purpose of this study, the gold standard test for endoleak detection was CTA, and an endoleak detected on DU alone was assumed to be a false positive result. DU interpretation was performed independently of CTA and vice versa.ResultsOne hundred thirty-two patients underwent EVAR, of whom 117 attended for follow-up ranging from six months to nine years (mean, 32 months). Adequate aneurysm sac visualisation on DU was not possible in 1.7% of patients, predominantly due to obesity. Twenty-eight endoleaks were detected in 28 patients during follow-up. Of these, 24 were initially identified on DU (four false negative DU examinations), and eight had at least one negative CTA with a positive DU prior to diagnosis. Twenty-three endoleaks were type II in nature and three of these patients had increased sac size. There was one type I and four type III endoleaks. Two of these (both type III) had an increased sac size. Of 12 patients with increased aneurysm size of 5 mm or more at follow-up, five had an endoleak visible on DU, yet negative CTA and a further five had endoleak visualisation on both DU and CTA. Of six endoleaks which underwent re-intervention, all were initially picked up on DU. One of these endoleaks was never demonstrated on CTA and a further two had at least one negative CTA prior to endoleak confirmation. Positive predictive value for DU was 45% and negative predictive value 94%. Specificity of DU for endoleak detection was 67% when compared with CTA, because of the large number of false positive DU results. Sensitivity for DU was 86%, with all clinically significant endoleaks demonstrated on CTA also detected on DU.ConclusionDespite its low positive predictive value, we found DU to be a sensitive test for the detection of clinically significant endoleaks. Given concerns about cumulative radiation exposure and cost, and the surprisingly low sensitivity of CTA for endoleak detection in this series, selective CTA based on DU surveillance may be a more appropriate long-term strategy

Metrics for Aggregating the Climate Effect of Different Emissions: A Unifying Framework. ESRI WP257, September 2008

Multi-gas approaches to climate change policies require a metric establishing “equivalences” among emissions of various species. Climate scientists and economists have proposed four classes of such metrics and debated their relative merits. We present a unifying framework that clarifies the relationships among them. We show that the Global Warming Potential, used in international law to compare greenhouse gases, is a special case of the Global Damage Potential, assuming (1) a finite time horizon, (2) a zero discount rate, (3) constant atmospheric concentrations, and (4) impacts that are proportional to radiactive forcing. We show that the Global Temperature change Potential is a special case of the Global Cost Potential, assuming (1) no induced technological change, and (2) a short-lived capital stock. We also show that the Global Cost Potential is a special case of the Global Damage Potential, assuming (1) zero damages below a threshold and (2) infinite damage after a threshold. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change uses the Global Warming Potential, a simplified cost-benefit concept, even though the UNFCCC frames climate policy as a cost-effectiveness problem and should therefore use the Global Cost Potential or its simplification, the Global Temperature Potential

PARALLEL ALGORITHM FOR CALCULATING GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM IN MULTIREGION ECONOMIC GROWTH MODELS

We develop and analyze a parallel algorithm for computing a solution in a multiregion dynamic general equilibrium model. The algorithm is based on an iterative method of the Gauss–Seidel type and exploits a special block structure of the model. Calculation of prices and input-output ratios in production for different time steps is carried out in parallel. We implement the parallel algorithm using the OpenMP interface for systems with shared memory. The efficiency of the algorithm is studied with the numbers of cores varying in the full range from one to the number of time steps of the model

Comparison of a New bioprosthetic Mitral Valve to Other Commercially Available Devices Under Controlled Conditions in a Porcine Mode

BACKGROUND/AIM: To evaluate three mitral bioprostheses (of comparable measured internal diameters) under controlled, stable, hemodynamic and surgical conditions by bench, echocardiographic, computerized tomography and autopsy comparisons pre‐ and postvalve implantation. METHODS: Fifteen similar‐sized Yorkshire pigs underwent preprocedural computerized tomography anatomic screening. Of these, 12 had consistent anatomic features and underwent implantation of a mitral bioprosthesis via thoracotomy on cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). Four valves from each of three manufacturers were implanted in randomized fashion: 27‐mm Epic, 27‐mm Mosaic, and 25‐mm Mitris bioprostheses. After CPB, epicardial echocardiographic studies were performed to assess hemodynamic function and define any paravalvular leaks, followed by postoperative gated contrast computerized tomography. After euthanasia, animals underwent necropsy for anatomic evaluation. RESULTS: All 12 animals had successful valve implantation with no study deaths. Postoperative echocardiographic trans‐valve gradients varied among bioprosthesis manufacturers. The 25‐mm Mitris (5.1 ± 2.7)/(2.6 ± 1.3 torr) had the lowest peak/mean gradient and the 27‐mm Epic bioprosthesis had the highest (9.2 ± 3.7)/(4.6 ± 1.9 torr). Surgical valve opening area (SOA) varied with the 25‐mm Mitris having the largest SOA (2.4 ± 0.15 cm(2)) followed by the 27‐mm Mosaic (2.04 ± 0.23 cm(2)) and the 27‐mm Epic (1.8 ± 0.27 cm(2)) valve. Bench device orthogonal internal diameter measurements did not match manufacturer device size labeling: 25‐mm Mitris (23 × 23 mm), 27‐mm Mosaic (23 × 22 mm), 27‐mm Epic (21 × 21 mm). CONCLUSIONS: Current advertisement/packaging of commercial surgical mitral valves is not uniform. This study demonstrates marked variations in hemodynamics, valve opening area and anatomic dimensions between similar sized mitral bioprostheses. These data suggest a critical need for standardization and close scientific evaluation of surgical mitral bioprostheses to ensure optimal clinical outcomes

New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation After Aortic Valve Replacement Comparison of Transfemoral, Transapical, Transaortic, and Surgical Approaches

ObjectivesThis study sought to determine the incidence of new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) associated with different methods of isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR)—transfemoral (TF), transapical (TA), and transaortic (TAo) catheter-based valve replacement and conventional surgical approaches.BackgroundThe relative incidences of AF associated with the various access routes for AVR have not been well characterized.MethodsIn this single-center, retrospective cohort study, we evaluated a total of 231 consecutive patients who underwent AVR for degenerative aortic stenosis (AS) between March 2010 and September 2012. Patients with a history of paroxysmal, persistent, or chronic AF, with bicuspid aortic valves, and patients who died within 48 h after AVR were excluded. A total of 123 patients (53% of total group) qualified for inclusion. Data on documented episodes of new-onset AF, along with all clinical, echocardiographic, procedural, and 30-day follow-up data, were collated.ResultsAF occurred in 52 patients (42.3%). AF incidence varied according to the procedural method. AF occurred in 60% of patients who underwent surgical AVR (SAVR), in 53% after TA-TAVR, in 33% after TAo-TAVR cases, and 14% after TF-TAVR. The episodes occurred at a median time interval of 53 (25th to 75th percentile, 41 to 87) h after completion of the procedure. Procedures without pericardiotomy had an 82% risk reduction of AF compared with those with pericardiotomy (adjusted odds ratio: 0.18; 95% confidence interval: 0.05 to 0.59).ConclusionsAF was a common complication of AVR with a cumulative incidence of >40% in elderly patients with degenerative AS who underwent either SAVR or TAVR. AF was most common with SAVR and least common with TF-TAVR. Procedures without pericardiotomy were associated with a lower incidence of AF

Establishment of wMel Wolbachia in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and reduction of local dengue transmission in Cairns and surrounding locations in northern Queensland, Australia.

Background: The wMel strain of Wolbachia has been successfully introduced into Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and subsequently shown in laboratory studies to reduce transmission of a range of viruses including dengue, Zika, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Mayaro viruses that cause human disease. Here we report the entomological and epidemiological outcomes of staged deployment of Wolbachia across nearly all significant dengue transmission risk areas in Australia. Methods: The  wMel strain of  Wolbachia was backcrossed into the local  Aedes aegypti genotype (Cairns and Townsville backgrounds) and mosquitoes were released in the field by staff or via community assisted methods. Mosquito monitoring was undertaken and mosquitoes were screened for the presence of  Wolbachia. Dengue case notifications were used to track dengue incidence in each location before and after releases. Results: Empirical analyses of the Wolbachia mosquito releases, including data on the density, frequency and duration of Wolbachia mosquito releases, indicate that Wolbachia can be readily established in local mosquito populations, using a variety of deployment options and over short release durations (mean release period 11 weeks, range 2-22 weeks). Importantly, Wolbachia frequencies have remained stable in mosquito populations since releases for up to 8 years. Analysis of dengue case notifications data demonstrates near-elimination of local dengue transmission for the past five years in locations where Wolbachia has been established. The regression model estimate of Wolbachia intervention effect from interrupted time series analyses of case notifications data prior to and after releases, indicated a 96% reduction in dengue incidence in Wolbachia treated populations (95% confidence interval: 84 - 99%). Conclusion: Deployment of the wMel strain of Wolbachia into local Ae. aegypti populations across the Australian regional cities of Cairns and most smaller regional communities with a past history of dengue has resulted in the reduction of local dengue transmission across all deployment areas