The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model

Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and reinsurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland, in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than most commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge-corrected rainfall radar, meteorological reanalysis data (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim; ERA-Interim) and a satellite rainfall product (The Climate Prediction Center morphing method; CMORPH). Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find the loss estimates to be more sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving precipitation data sets than to other uncertainties in the hazard and vulnerability modules, suggesting that the range of uncertainty within catastrophe model structures may be greater than commonly believed

Managing plagiarism in programming assignments with blended assessment and randomisation.

Plagiarism is a common concern for coursework in many situations, particularly where electronic solutions can be provided e.g. computer programs, and leads to unreliability of assessment. Written exams are often used to try to deal with this, and to increase reliability, but at the expense of validity. One solution, outlined in this paper, is to randomise the work that is set for students so that it is very unlikely that any two students will be working on exactly the same problem set. This also helps to address the issue of students trying to outsource their work by paying external people to complete their assignments for them. We examine the effectiveness of this approach and others (including blended assessment) by analysing the spread of similarity scores across four different introductory programming assignments to find the natural similarity i.e. the level of similarity that could reasonably occur without plagiarism. The results of the study indicate that divergent assessment (having more than one possible solution) as opposed to convergent assessment (only one solution) is the dominant factor in natural similarity. A key area for further work is to apply the analysis to a larger sample of programming assignments to better understand the impact of different features of the assignment design on natural similarity and hence the detection of plagiarism

Background independence in a nutshell

We study how physical information can be extracted from a background independent quantum system. We use an extremely simple `minimalist' system that models a finite region of 3d euclidean quantum spacetime with a single equilateral tetrahedron. We show that the physical information can be expressed as a boundary amplitude. We illustrate how the notions of "evolution" in a boundary proper-time and "vacuum" can be extracted from the background independent dynamics.Comment: 19 pages, 19 figure

Nonsingular Lagrangians for Two Dimensional Black Holes

We introduce a large class of modifications of the standard lagrangian for two dimensional dilaton gravity, whose general solutions are nonsingular black holes. A subclass of these lagrangians have extremal solutions which are nonsingular analogues of the extremal Reissner-Nordstrom spacetime. It is possible that quantum deformations of these extremal solutions are the endpoint of Hawking evaporation when the models are coupled to matter, and that the resulting evolution may be studied entirely within the framework of the semiclassical approximation. Numerical work to verify this conjecture is in progress. We point out however that the solutions with non-negative mass always contain Cauchy horizons, and may be sensitive to small perturbations.Comment: 27 pages, three figures, RU-92-61. (Replaced version contains some corrections to incorrect equations. The zero temperature extremal geometry (the conjectured end-point of the Hawking evaporation) is not as stated in the previous version, but rather is a nonsingular analogue of the zero temperature $M^2 = Q^2$ Reissner-Nordstrom space-time.

New interpretation of variational principles for gauge theories. I. Cyclic coordinate alternative to ADM split

I show how there is an ambiguity in how one treats auxiliary variables in gauge theories including general relativity cast as 3 + 1 geometrodynamics. Auxiliary variables may be treated pre-variationally as multiplier coordinates or as the velocities corresponding to cyclic coordinates. The latter treatment works through the physical meaninglessness of auxiliary variables' values applying also to the end points (or end spatial hypersurfaces) of the variation, so that these are free rather than fixed. [This is also known as variation with natural boundary conditions.] Further principles of dynamics workings such as Routhian reduction and the Dirac procedure are shown to have parallel counterparts for this new formalism. One advantage of the new scheme is that the corresponding actions are more manifestly relational. While the electric potential is usually regarded as a multiplier coordinate and Arnowitt, Deser and Misner have regarded the lapse and shift likewise, this paper's scheme considers new {\it flux}, {\it instant} and {\it grid} variables whose corresponding velocities are, respectively, the abovementioned previously used variables. This paper's way of thinking about gauge theory furthermore admits interesting generalizations, which shall be provided in a second paper.Comment: 11 page

Singularities and closed time-like curves in type IIB 1/2 BPS geometries

We study in detail the moduli space of solutions discovered in LLM relaxing the constraint that guarantees the absence of singularities. The solutions fall into three classes, non-singular, null-singular and time machines with a time-like naked singularity. We study the general features of these metrics and prove that there are actually just two generic classes of space-times - those with null singularities are in the same class as the non-singular metrics. AdS/CFT seems to provide a dual description only for the first of these two types of space-time in terms of a unitary CFT indicating the possible existence of a chronology protection mechanism for this class of geometries.Comment: 34 pages, 7 figures, LaTeX. References adde

Mesonic Chiral Rings in Calabi-Yau Cones from Field Theory

We study the half-BPS mesonic chiral ring of the N=1 superconformal quiver theories arising from N D3-branes stacked at Y^pq and L^abc Calabi-Yau conical singularities. We map each gauge invariant operator represented on the quiver as an irreducible loop adjoint at some node, to an invariant monomial, modulo relations, in the gauged linear sigma model describing the corresponding bulk geometry. This map enables us to write a partition function at finite N over mesonic half-BPS states. It agrees with the bulk gravity interpretation of chiral ring states as cohomologically trivial giant gravitons. The quiver theories for L^aba, which have singular base geometries, contain extra operators not counted by the naive bulk partition function. These extra operators have a natural interpretation in terms of twisted states localized at the orbifold-like singularities in the bulk.Comment: Latex, 25pgs, 12 figs, v2: minor clarification

Triangleland. I. Classical dynamics with exchange of relative angular momentum

In Euclidean relational particle mechanics, only relative times, relative angles and relative separations are meaningful. Barbour--Bertotti (1982) theory is of this form and can be viewed as a recovery of (a portion of) Newtonian mechanics from relational premises. This is of interest in the absolute versus relative motion debate and also shares a number of features with the geometrodynamical formulation of general relativity, making it suitable for some modelling of the problem of time in quantum gravity. I also study similarity relational particle mechanics (`dynamics of pure shape'), in which only relative times, relative angles and {\sl ratios of} relative separations are meaningful. This I consider firstly as it is simpler, particularly in 1 and 2 d, for which the configuration space geometry turns out to be well-known, e.g. S^2 for the `triangleland' (3-particle) case that I consider in detail. Secondly, the similarity model occurs as a sub-model within the Euclidean model: that admits a shape--scale split. For harmonic oscillator like potentials, similarity triangleland model turns out to have the same mathematics as a family of rigid rotor problems, while the Euclidean case turns out to have parallels with the Kepler--Coulomb problem in spherical and parabolic coordinates. Previous work on relational mechanics covered cases where the constituent subsystems do not exchange relative angular momentum, which is a simplifying (but in some ways undesirable) feature paralleling centrality in ordinary mechanics. In this paper I lift this restriction. In each case I reduce the relational problem to a standard one, thus obtain various exact, asymptotic and numerical solutions, and then recast these into the original mechanical variables for physical interpretation.Comment: Journal Reference added, minor updates to References and Figure

Remembering Our Past: Teaching the History of Anatomy at Indiana University

Most students pursuing careers in anatomy or related disciplines have a limited understanding of how, over the centuries, the intricate structure of the human body came to be known. To provide students with the relevant historical perspective, we developed a team-taught survey course in the history of anatomical sciences—including gross anatomy, histology, neuroanatomy, and embryology—from antiquity to the present. Taught entirely via Zoom during the Spring semester of 2021, History of Anatomy (2 semester hours credit) met once per week for approximately 2 hours. Enrollment consisted of 5 undergraduate students majoring in Biology (2), Human Biology (2), or Anthropology (1), as well as 3 graduate students pursuing either a master’s degree in Clinical Anatomy (1) or a Ph.D. in Anatomy Education (2). Three of the students had no prior coursework in anatomy. Through assigned readings, lectures, and discussions, the class explored the work of the great anatomists and their discoveries. A particular emphasis was placed on the evolution of anatomy as a discipline and the cultural influences, scientific controversies, and ethical dilemmas facing its practitioners. Syllabus topics included critical appraisals of the role of gender, race, and ethnicity in anatomical discovery. A key feature of the course was the opportunity for students to engage in robust discussions about such controversial issues as: Eurocentric biases in our understanding of human anatomy and the untold story of Muslim contributions to anatomical knowledge well before Vesalius; Competing claims of priority for who “discovered” the pulmonary circulation; The underappreciated role of women in the history of anatomy and medicine; The ethical quandary of teaching anatomy from archival fetal specimens obtained before the era of informed consent; Accusations that famed anatomist William Hunter used the bodies of murdered pregnant women to create his anatomical atlas of the gravid uterus; Complicity of Eduard Pernkopf and other Nazi-era anatomists in the unethical use of executed victims to obtain images for a renowned anatomical atlas. All students were assessed through weekly homework (written responses to study questions), a mid-term writing assignment, and a term paper about an historical topic of the student’s choosing. Graduate students had the additional requirement of a class presentation about their term paper topic. The end-of-course evaluation suggested that the course was well-received by the students (mean Likert score = 4.63 on a 5-point scale; n = 6). Based on this positive reception, we plan to offer History of Anatomy again on a recurring basis. We believe that by knowing our history, both the good and the bad, future practitioners of anatomy and related disciplines will be less likely to perpetuate the biases and ethical transgressions of earlier eras.American Association for Anatomy Spring Meetin

The Cultural Value of Shakespeare Lives 2016 Research Report

The The cultural value of Shakespeare Lives 2016 project is available at https://www.open.ac.uk/researchprojects/diasporas/cvp/shakespeare-lives-2016.The British Council commissioned the Open University to develop an evaluation plan for Shakespeare Lives (SL) in 2016 based on the Cultural Value Model, a methodological tool devised by the Open University in collaboration with the British Council that offers an innovative and comprehensive approach to assessing the impact of the British Council’s Cultural Relations Programmes. The Cultural Value Model combines existing performance assessment data gathered by the British Council with additional qualitative and quantitative data collected by The Open University as part of the project.British Counci