366 research outputs found
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The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model
Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and reinsurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland, in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than most commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge-corrected rainfall radar, meteorological reanalysis data (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim; ERA-Interim) and a satellite rainfall product (The Climate Prediction Center morphing method; CMORPH). Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find the loss estimates to be more sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving precipitation data sets than to other uncertainties in the hazard and vulnerability modules, suggesting that the range of uncertainty within catastrophe model structures may be greater than commonly believed
Managing plagiarism in programming assignments with blended assessment and randomisation.
Plagiarism is a common concern for coursework in many situations, particularly where electronic solutions can be provided e.g. computer programs, and leads to unreliability of assessment. Written exams are often used to try to deal with this, and to increase reliability, but at the expense of validity. One solution, outlined in this paper, is to randomise the work that is set for students so that it is very unlikely that any two students will be working on exactly the same problem set. This also helps to address the issue of students trying to outsource their work by paying external people to complete their assignments for them. We examine the effectiveness of this approach and others (including blended assessment) by analysing the spread of similarity scores across four different introductory programming assignments to find the natural similarity i.e. the level of similarity that could reasonably occur without plagiarism. The results of the study indicate that divergent assessment (having more than one possible solution) as opposed to convergent assessment (only one solution) is the dominant factor in natural similarity. A key area for further work is to apply the analysis to a larger sample of programming assignments to better understand the impact of different features of the assignment design on natural similarity and hence the detection of plagiarism
Background independence in a nutshell
We study how physical information can be extracted from a background
independent quantum system. We use an extremely simple `minimalist' system that
models a finite region of 3d euclidean quantum spacetime with a single
equilateral tetrahedron. We show that the physical information can be expressed
as a boundary amplitude. We illustrate how the notions of "evolution" in a
boundary proper-time and "vacuum" can be extracted from the background
independent dynamics.Comment: 19 pages, 19 figure
Nonsingular Lagrangians for Two Dimensional Black Holes
We introduce a large class of modifications of the standard lagrangian for
two dimensional dilaton gravity, whose general solutions are nonsingular black
holes. A subclass of these lagrangians have extremal solutions which are
nonsingular analogues of the extremal Reissner-Nordstrom spacetime. It is
possible that quantum deformations of these extremal solutions are the endpoint
of Hawking evaporation when the models are coupled to matter, and that the
resulting evolution may be studied entirely within the framework of the
semiclassical approximation. Numerical work to verify this conjecture is in
progress. We point out however that the solutions with non-negative mass always
contain Cauchy horizons, and may be sensitive to small perturbations.Comment: 27 pages, three figures, RU-92-61. (Replaced version contains some
corrections to incorrect equations. The zero temperature extremal geometry
(the conjectured end-point of the Hawking evaporation) is not as stated in
the previous version, but rather is a nonsingular analogue of the zero
temperature Reissner-Nordstrom space-time.
New interpretation of variational principles for gauge theories. I. Cyclic coordinate alternative to ADM split
I show how there is an ambiguity in how one treats auxiliary variables in
gauge theories including general relativity cast as 3 + 1 geometrodynamics.
Auxiliary variables may be treated pre-variationally as multiplier coordinates
or as the velocities corresponding to cyclic coordinates. The latter treatment
works through the physical meaninglessness of auxiliary variables' values
applying also to the end points (or end spatial hypersurfaces) of the
variation, so that these are free rather than fixed. [This is also known as
variation with natural boundary conditions.] Further principles of dynamics
workings such as Routhian reduction and the Dirac procedure are shown to have
parallel counterparts for this new formalism. One advantage of the new scheme
is that the corresponding actions are more manifestly relational. While the
electric potential is usually regarded as a multiplier coordinate and Arnowitt,
Deser and Misner have regarded the lapse and shift likewise, this paper's
scheme considers new {\it flux}, {\it instant} and {\it grid} variables whose
corresponding velocities are, respectively, the abovementioned previously used
variables. This paper's way of thinking about gauge theory furthermore admits
interesting generalizations, which shall be provided in a second paper.Comment: 11 page
Singularities and closed time-like curves in type IIB 1/2 BPS geometries
We study in detail the moduli space of solutions discovered in LLM relaxing
the constraint that guarantees the absence of singularities. The solutions fall
into three classes, non-singular, null-singular and time machines with a
time-like naked singularity. We study the general features of these metrics and
prove that there are actually just two generic classes of space-times - those
with null singularities are in the same class as the non-singular metrics.
AdS/CFT seems to provide a dual description only for the first of these two
types of space-time in terms of a unitary CFT indicating the possible existence
of a chronology protection mechanism for this class of geometries.Comment: 34 pages, 7 figures, LaTeX. References adde
Mesonic Chiral Rings in Calabi-Yau Cones from Field Theory
We study the half-BPS mesonic chiral ring of the N=1 superconformal quiver
theories arising from N D3-branes stacked at Y^pq and L^abc Calabi-Yau conical
singularities. We map each gauge invariant operator represented on the quiver
as an irreducible loop adjoint at some node, to an invariant monomial, modulo
relations, in the gauged linear sigma model describing the corresponding bulk
geometry. This map enables us to write a partition function at finite N over
mesonic half-BPS states. It agrees with the bulk gravity interpretation of
chiral ring states as cohomologically trivial giant gravitons. The quiver
theories for L^aba, which have singular base geometries, contain extra
operators not counted by the naive bulk partition function. These extra
operators have a natural interpretation in terms of twisted states localized at
the orbifold-like singularities in the bulk.Comment: Latex, 25pgs, 12 figs, v2: minor clarification
Triangleland. I. Classical dynamics with exchange of relative angular momentum
In Euclidean relational particle mechanics, only relative times, relative
angles and relative separations are meaningful. Barbour--Bertotti (1982) theory
is of this form and can be viewed as a recovery of (a portion of) Newtonian
mechanics from relational premises. This is of interest in the absolute versus
relative motion debate and also shares a number of features with the
geometrodynamical formulation of general relativity, making it suitable for
some modelling of the problem of time in quantum gravity. I also study
similarity relational particle mechanics (`dynamics of pure shape'), in which
only relative times, relative angles and {\sl ratios of} relative separations
are meaningful. This I consider firstly as it is simpler, particularly in 1 and
2 d, for which the configuration space geometry turns out to be well-known,
e.g. S^2 for the `triangleland' (3-particle) case that I consider in detail.
Secondly, the similarity model occurs as a sub-model within the Euclidean
model: that admits a shape--scale split. For harmonic oscillator like
potentials, similarity triangleland model turns out to have the same
mathematics as a family of rigid rotor problems, while the Euclidean case turns
out to have parallels with the Kepler--Coulomb problem in spherical and
parabolic coordinates. Previous work on relational mechanics covered cases
where the constituent subsystems do not exchange relative angular momentum,
which is a simplifying (but in some ways undesirable) feature paralleling
centrality in ordinary mechanics. In this paper I lift this restriction. In
each case I reduce the relational problem to a standard one, thus obtain
various exact, asymptotic and numerical solutions, and then recast these into
the original mechanical variables for physical interpretation.Comment: Journal Reference added, minor updates to References and Figure
Remembering Our Past: Teaching the History of Anatomy at Indiana University
Most students pursuing careers in anatomy or related disciplines have a limited understanding of how, over the centuries, the intricate structure of the human body came to be known. To provide students with the relevant historical perspective, we developed a team-taught survey course in the history of anatomical sciencesâincluding gross anatomy, histology, neuroanatomy, and embryologyâfrom antiquity to the present. Taught entirely via Zoom during the Spring semester of 2021, History of Anatomy (2 semester hours credit) met once per week for approximately 2 hours. Enrollment consisted of 5 undergraduate students majoring in Biology (2), Human Biology (2), or Anthropology (1), as well as 3 graduate students pursuing either a masterâs degree in Clinical Anatomy (1) or a Ph.D. in Anatomy Education (2). Three of the students had no prior coursework in anatomy. Through assigned readings, lectures, and discussions, the class explored the work of the great anatomists and their discoveries. A particular emphasis was placed on the evolution of anatomy as a discipline and the cultural influences, scientific controversies, and ethical dilemmas facing its practitioners. Syllabus topics included critical appraisals of the role of gender, race, and ethnicity in anatomical discovery. A key feature of the course was the opportunity for students to engage in robust discussions about such controversial issues as: Eurocentric biases in our
understanding of human anatomy and the untold story of Muslim contributions to anatomical
knowledge well before Vesalius; Competing claims of priority for who âdiscoveredâ the pulmonary circulation; The underappreciated role of women in the history of anatomy and medicine; The ethical quandary of teaching anatomy from archival fetal specimens obtained before the era of informed consent; Accusations that famed anatomist William Hunter used the bodies of murdered pregnant women to create his anatomical atlas of the gravid uterus; Complicity of Eduard Pernkopf and other Nazi-era anatomists in the unethical use of executed victims to obtain images for a renowned anatomical atlas. All students were assessed through weekly homework (written responses to study questions), a mid-term writing assignment, and a term paper about an historical topic of the studentâs choosing. Graduate students had the additional requirement of a class presentation about their term paper topic. The end-of-course evaluation suggested that the course was well-received by the students (mean Likert score = 4.63 on a 5-point scale; n = 6). Based on this positive reception, we plan to offer History of Anatomy again on a recurring basis. We believe
that by knowing our history, both the good and the bad, future practitioners of anatomy and related disciplines will be less likely to perpetuate the biases and ethical transgressions of earlier eras.American Association for Anatomy Spring Meetin
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The Cultural Value of Shakespeare Lives 2016 Research Report
The The cultural value of Shakespeare Lives 2016 project is available at https://www.open.ac.uk/researchprojects/diasporas/cvp/shakespeare-lives-2016.The British Council commissioned the Open University to develop an evaluation plan for Shakespeare Lives (SL) in 2016 based on the Cultural Value Model, a methodological tool devised by the Open University in collaboration with the British Council that offers an innovative and comprehensive approach to assessing the impact of the British Councilâs Cultural Relations Programmes. The Cultural Value Model combines existing performance assessment data gathered by the British Council with additional qualitative and quantitative data collected by The Open University as part of the project.British Counci
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