Economic value of ecosystem services, minerals and oil in a melting Arctic: a preliminary assessment

The Arctic region is composed of unique marine and terrestrial ecosystems that provide a range of services to local and global populations. However, Arctic sea-ice and permafrost is melting at an unprecedented rate, threatening many of these ecosystems and the services they provide. This short communication provides a preliminary assessment of the quantity, distribution and economic value of key ecosystem services as well as geological resources such as oil and minerals provided by Arctic ecosystems to beneficiaries in the Arctic region and globally. Using biophysical and economic data from existing studies, preliminary estimates indicate that the Arctic currently provides about $$281 billion per year (in 2016 US$) in terms of food, mineral extraction, oil production, tourism, hunting, existence values and climate regulation. However, given predictions of ice-free summers by 2037, many of the ecosystem services may be lost. We hope that this communication stimulates discussion among policy-makers regarding the value of ecosystem services and such geological resources as minerals and oil provided by the Arctic region, and the potential ecosystem losses resulting from Arctic melt, so as to motivate decisions vis a vis climate change mitigation before Arctic ice disappears completely

Preferences for water treatment provision in rural India: comparing communal, pay-per-use, and labour-for-water schemes

Using a contingent valuation survey, this research identifies villagers’ willingness to pay towards the operation and maintenance of water treatment plants in 11 villages in Maharashtra with existing facilities. Preferences were elicited using three different payment mechanisms: a monthly fee, labour (time) contributions, and a pay-per-container mechanism. There was little support for the pay-per-container scheme (51% stated positive willingness to pay for this option), but the communal mechanisms were more popular (86.7% and 87.3%). We conclude that the long-term viability of water treatment in Maharashtra is weak, as few scenarios provide adequate revenue to properly operate and maintain the infrastructure

Communication, observability and cooperation: a field experiment on collective water management in India

This study is an empirical investigation of the potential for communication and observability interventions to increase cooperation around communal water treatment systems amongst villagers in rural India. Despite the dependence of many rural communities in India on communal water sources and treatment plants for safe drinking water, they often fail to collectively manage these resources, resulting in abandoned water points and treatment systems with consequent health and mortality impacts. Results of public goods games framed in terms of the management of communal water treatment systems suggest that these communities can cooperate to provide the public good. However, public disclosure of behaviour had the very significant effect of decreasing contributions to the public good. Analysis indicates that early rounds of play were critical in this regard: the observed behaviours of other individuals at the start of play strongly determined subsequent cooperation levels. Thus, frequently-observed free-riding behaviour in early rounds of the game led other players to follow suit. Only when participants were actively encouraged to negotiate agreements, did cooperation increase significantly - albeit intermittently. Overall, findings suggest that interventions that provide opportunities for communication and negotiation may be most effective at enhancing cooperation around communal water treatment plants, while the impacts of interventions that make behaviour observable are strongly dependent on behaviour in the early stages of cooperative interaction

Willingness to reduce travel consumption to support a low-carbon transition beyond COVID-19

This paper explores people's willingness to reduce travel consumption in support of the transition to a low-carbon pathway beyond COVID-19, using new survey data from UK car drivers and air travellers. Evidence from our study indicates that reductions of 24% - 30% to car use and 20% - 26% to air travel could be sustained in the long term. This potentially could lead to annual reductions of 343–529 kgCO2 per car driver (20% - 29% of pre- COVID-19 car emissions) and 215–359 kgCO2 per air traveller (10% - 20% of pre-COVID-19 emissions from flying), suggesting that behavioural change may be a major route to emissions reductions. We find that stated voluntary reductions are greater among those who report having ‘more time to do creative things’ since the start of the COVID-19 lockdowns. Hence, recovery policies promoting low-carbon leisure time may be a key to consumption reductions. We also find that higher-income travellers consume and pollute substantially more than the rest, and yet there is little difference in relative voluntary reductions across the income distribution. We conclude that behaviour associated with affluence represents a major barrier to a low-carbon transition, and that policies must address over-consumption associated with affluence as a priority

The effect of anchors and social information on behaviour

We use a ‘multi-player dictator game’ (MDG), with ‘social information’ about the monetary transfer made by a previous dictator to a recipient, to examine whether average contributions as well as the behavioural strategy adopted are affected by the first amount presented (the ‘anchor’) using a sequential strategy elicitation method. We find that average contributions are positively affected by the anchor. The anchor is also found to influence the behavioural strategy that individuals adopt, such that low anchors significantly increase the likelihood that players will adopt unconditional self-interested strategies, whereas high anchors increase the likelihood of adopting giving strategies. The distribution of strategies – and hence, the distribution of behavioural ‘types’ - is therefore affected by the initial conditions of play, lending support to the notion that behavioural strategies are context dependent

Are we willing to give what it takes? Willingness to pay for climate change adaptation in developing countries

Climate change adaptation is gaining traction as a necessary policy alongside mitigation, particularly for developing countries, many of which lack the resources to adapt. However, funding for developing country adaptation remains woefully inadequate. This paper identifies the burden of responsibility that individuals in the UK are willing to incur in support of adaptation projects in developing countries. Results from a nationally representative survey indicate that UK residents are willing to contribute £27 per year (or a median of £6 per year) towards developing country adaptation (US$30 and$7 using the World Bank’s purchasing power conversion factors). This represents less than one third of the back-of-the-envelope $100-140 per capita per year that the authors estimate would be needed to raise the$70-100bn per year recommended by the World Bank to fund developing country adaptation. Regressions indicate that WTP is driven mostly by a combination of beliefs and perceptions about one’s own knowledge levels, rather than actual knowledge of climate change. We conclude that, to engage the many different audiences that make up the ‘public’, communication efforts must move beyond the simple provision of information and instead, connect with people’s existing values and beliefs

“Stickier” learning through gameplay: an effective approach to climate change education

As the impacts of climate change grow, we need better ways to raise awareness and motivate action. Here we assess the effectiveness of an Arctic climate change card game in comparison with the more conventional approach of reading an illustrated article. In-person assessments with control/reading and treatment/game groups (N = 41), were followed four weeks later with a survey. The game was found to be as effective as the article in teaching content of the impacts of climate change over the short term, and was more effective than the article in long-term retention of new information. Game players also had higher levels of engagement and perceptions that they knew ways to help protect Arctic ecosystems. They were also more likely to recommend the game to friends or family than those in the control group were likely to recommend the article to friends or family. As we consider ways to broaden engagement with climate change, we should include games in our portfolio of approaches

Impact of gameplay vs. reading on mental models of social-ecological systems: a fuzzy cognitive mapping approach

Climate change is a highly complex social-ecological problem characterized by system-type dynamics that are important to communicate in a variety of settings, ranging from formal education to decision makers to informal education of the general public. Educational games are one approach that may enhance systems thinking skills. This study used a randomized controlled experiment to compare the impact on the mental models of participants of an educational card game vs. an illustrated article about the Arctic social-ecological system. A total of 41 participants (game: n = 20; reading: n = 21) created pre- and post-intervention mental models of the system, based on a "fuzzy cognitive mapping" approach. Maps were analyzed using network statistics. Both reading the article and playing the game resulted in measurable increases in systems understanding. The group reading the article perceived a more complex system after the intervention, with overall learning gains approximately twice those of the game players. However, game players demonstrated similar learning gains as article readers regarding the climate system, actions both causing environmental problems and protecting the Arctic, as well as the importance of the base- and mid-levels of the food chain. These findings contribute to the growing evidence showing that games are important resources to include as strategies for building capacity to understand and steward sustainable social-ecological systems, in both formal and informal education

Detectable Changes in The Blood Transcriptome Are Present after Two Weeks of Antituberculosis Therapy

Globally there are approximately 9 million new active tuberculosis cases and 1.4 million deaths annually. Effective antituberculosis treatment monitoring is difficult as there are no existing biomarkers of poor adherence or inadequate treatment earlier than 2 months after treatment initiation. Inadequate treatment leads to worsening disease, disease transmission and drug resistance.To determine if blood transcriptional signatures change in response to antituberculosis treatment and could act as early biomarkers of a successful response.Blood transcriptional profiles of untreated active tuberculosis patients in South Africa were analysed before, during (2 weeks and 2 months), at the end of (6 months) and after (12 months) antituberculosis treatment, and compared to individuals with latent tuberculosis. An active-tuberculosis transcriptional signature and a specific treatment-response transcriptional signature were derived. The specific treatment response transcriptional signature was tested in two independent cohorts. Two quantitative scoring algorithms were applied to measure the changes in the transcriptional response. The most significantly represented pathways were determined using Ingenuity Pathway Analysis.An active tuberculosis 664-transcript signature and a treatment specific 320-transcript signature significantly diminished after 2 weeks of treatment in all cohorts, and continued to diminish until 6 months. The transcriptional response to treatment could be individually measured in each patient.Significant changes in the transcriptional signatures measured by blood tests were readily detectable just 2 weeks after treatment initiation. These findings suggest that blood transcriptional signatures could be used as early surrogate biomarkers of successful treatment response

Signaling via interleukin-4, receptor alpha chain is required for successful vaccination against schistosomiasis in BALB/c mice

Radiation-attenuated (RA) schistosome larvae are potent stimulators of innate immune responses at the skin site of exposure (pinna) that are likely to be important factors in the development of Th1-mediated protective immunity. In addition to causing an influx of neutrophils, macrophages, and dendritic cells (DCs) into the dermis, RA larvae induced a cascade of chemokine and cytokine secretion following in vitro culture of pinna biopsy samples. While macrophage inflammatory protein 1 and interleukin-1 (IL-1) were produced transiently within the first few days, the Th1-promoting cytokines IL-12 and IL-18 were secreted at high levels until at least day 14. Assay of C3H/HeJ mice confirmed that IL-12 secretion was not due to lipopolysaccharide contaminants binding Toll-like receptor 4. Significantly, IL-12 p40 secretion was sustained in pinnae from vaccinated mice but not in those from nonprotected infected mice. In contrast, IL-10 was produced from both vaccinated and infected mice. This cytokine regulates IL-12-associated dermal inflammation, since in vaccinated IL-10/ mice, pinna thickness was greatly increased concurrent with elevated levels of IL-12 p40. A significant number of IL-12 p40 cells were detected as emigrants from in vitro-cultured pinnae, and most were within a population of rare large granular cells that were Ia, consistent with their being antigen-presenting cells. Labeling of IL-12 cells for CD11c, CD205, CD8, CD11b, and F4/80 indicated that the majority were myeloid DCs, although a proportion were CD11c F4/80, suggesting that macrophages were an additional source of IL-12 in the skin