Long-term strategies to control COVID-19 in low and middle-income countries: an options overview of community-based, non-pharmacological interventions

Abstract: In low and middle-income countries (LMICs), strict social distancing measures (e.g., nationwide lockdown) in response to the COVID-19 pandemic are unsustainable in the long-term due to knock-on socioeconomic and psychological effects. However, an optimal epidemiology-focused strategy for ‘safe-reopening’ (i.e., balancing between the economic and health consequences) remain unclear, particularly given the suboptimal disease surveillance and diagnostic infrastructure in these settings. As the lockdown is now being relaxed in many LMICs, in this paper, we have (1) conducted an epidemiology-based “options appraisal” of various available non-pharmacological intervention options that can be employed to safely lift the lockdowns (namely, sustained mitigation, zonal lockdown and rolling lockdown strategies), and (2) propose suitable application, pre-requisites, and inherent limitations for each measure. Among these, a sustained mitigation-only approach (adopted in many high-income countries) may not be feasible in most LMIC settings given the absence of nationwide population surveillance, generalised testing, contact tracing and critical care infrastructure needed to tackle the likely resurgence of infections. By contrast, zonal or local lockdowns may be suitable for some countries where systematic identification of new outbreak clusters in real-time would be feasible. This requires a generalised testing and surveillance structure, and a well-thought out (and executed) zone management plan. Finally, an intermittent, rolling lockdown strategy has recently been suggested by the World Health Organization as a potential strategy to get the epidemic under control in some LMI settings, where generalised mitigation and zonal containment is unfeasible. This strategy, however, needs to be carefully considered for economic costs and necessary supply chain reforms. In conclusion, while we propose three community-based, non-pharmacological options for LMICs, a suitable measure should be context-specific and based on: (1) epidemiological considerations, (2) social and economic costs, (3) existing health systems capabilities and (4) future-proof plans to implement and sustain the strategy

Nipah virus outbreak with person-to-person transmission in a district of Bangladesh, 2007

In February 2007 an outbreak of Nipah virus (NiV) encephalitis in Thakurgaon District of northwest Bangladesh affected seven people, three of whom died. All subsequent cases developed illness 7-14 days after close physical contact with the index case while he was ill. Cases were more likely than controls to have been in the same room (100% vs. 9.5%, OR undefined, P<0.001) and to have touched him (83% vs. 0%, OR undefined, P<0.001). Although the source of infection for the index case was not identified, 50% of Pteropus bats sampled from near the outbreak area 1 month after the outbreak had antibodies to NiV confirming the presence of the virus in the area. The outbreak was spread by person-to-person transmission. Risk of NiV infection in family caregivers highlights the need for infection control practices to limit transmission of potentially infectious body secretions

Drug-prescribing patterns during pregnancy in the tertiary care hospitals of Pakistan: a cross sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The rationale for use of drugs during pregnancy requires a careful assessment as in addition to the mother, the health and life of her unborn child is also at stake. Information on the use of drugs during pregnancy is not available in Pakistan. The aim of this study was to evaluate the patterns of drug prescriptions to pregnant women in tertiary care hospitals of Pakistan.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This was a cross-sectional study conducted at five tertiary care hospitals of Pakistan. Copies of outpatient medicinal prescriptions given to pregnant patients attending the antenatal clinics were collected. The drugs were classified according to the pharmacological class and their teratogenic potential.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All the pregnant women attending the antenatal clinics received a prescription containing at least one drug. A total of 3769 distinct prescriptions given to different women were collected. Majority of the women who received the prescriptions belonged to third trimester (55.4%) followed by second (33.6%) and first trimester (11.0%). On an average, each prescription contained 1.66 ± 0.14 drugs. The obstetricians at Civil Hospital, Karachi and Chandka Medical College Hospital, Larkana showed a tendency of prescribing lesser number of drugs compared to those in other hospitals. Anti-anemic drugs including iron preparations and vitamin and mineral supplements (79.4%) were the most frequently prescribed drugs followed by analgesics (6.2%) and anti-bacterials (2.2%). 739 women (19.6%) received prescriptions containing drugs other than vitamin or mineral supplements. Only 1275 (21.6%) of all the prescribed drugs (n = 6100) were outside this vitamin/mineral supplement class. Out of these 1275 drugs, 29 (2.3%) drugs were prescribed which are considered to be teratogenic. Misoprostol was the most frequently prescribed (n = 6) among the teratogenic drugs followed by carbimazole (n = 5) and methotrexate (n = 5). Twenty nine pregnant women (0.8% of all the women studied) were prescribed these teratogenic drugs.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Less than one percent of the pregnant women attending tertiary care hospitals in Pakistan are prescribed teratogenic drugs. The prescribing practices of Pakistani physicians are similar to those in western countries.</p

Ecto-5′-nucleotidase and intestinal ion secretion by enteropathogenic Escherichia coli

Enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (EPEC) triggers a large release of adenosine triphosphate (ATP) from host intestinal cells and the extracellular ATP is broken down to adenosine diphosphate (ADP), AMP, and adenosine. Adenosine is a potent secretagogue in the small and large intestine. We suspected that ecto-5′-nucleotidase (CD73, an intestinal enzyme) was a critical enzyme involved in the conversion of AMP to adenosine and in the pathogenesis of EPEC diarrhea. We developed a nonradioactive method for measuring ecto-5′-nucleotidase in cultured T84 cell monolayers based on the detection of phosphate release from 5′-AMP. EPEC infection triggered a release of ecto-5′-nucleotidase from the cell surface into the supernatant medium. EPEC-induced 5′-nucleotidase release was not correlated with host cell death but instead with activation of phosphatidylinositol-specific phospholipase C (PI-PLC). Ecto-5′-nucleotidase was susceptible to inhibition by zinc acetate and by α,β-methylene-adenosine diphosphate (α,β-methylene-ADP). In the Ussing chamber, these inhibitors could reverse the chloride secretory responses triggered by 5′-AMP. In addition, α,β-methylene-ADP and zinc blocked the ability of 5′-AMP to stimulate EPEC growth under nutrient-limited conditions in vitro. Ecto-5′-nucleotidase appears to be the major enzyme responsible for generation of adenosine from adenine nucleotides in the T84 cell line, and inhibitors of ecto-5′-nucleotidase, such as α,β-methylene-ADP and zinc, might be useful for treatment of the watery diarrhea produced by EPEC infection

Substantial and sustained reduction in under-5 mortality, diarrhea, and pneumonia in Oshikhandass, Pakistan : Evidence from two longitudinal cohort studies 15 years apart

Funding Information: Study 1 was funded through the Applied Diarrheal Disease Research Program at Harvard Institute for International Development with a grant from USAID (Project 936–5952, Cooperative Agreement # DPE-5952-A-00-5073-00), and the Aga Khan Health Service, Northern Areas and Chitral, Pakistan. Study 2 was funded by the Pakistan US S&T Cooperative Agreement between the Pakistan Higher Education Commission (HEC) (No.4–421/PAK-US/HEC/2010/955, grant to the Karakoram International University) and US National Academies of Science (Grant Number PGA-P211012 from NAS to the Fogarty International Center). The funding bodies had no role in the design of the study, data collection, analysis, interpretation, or writing of the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: © 2020 The Author(s).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

The Cholecystectomy As A Day Case (CAAD) Score: A Validated Score of Preoperative Predictors of Successful Day-Case Cholecystectomy Using the CholeS Data Set

Background Day-case surgery is associated with significant patient and cost benefits. However, only 43% of cholecystectomy patients are discharged home the same day. One hypothesis is day-case cholecystectomy rates, defined as patients discharged the same day as their operation, may be improved by better assessment of patients using standard preoperative variables. Methods Data were extracted from a prospectively collected data set of cholecystectomy patients from 166 UK and Irish hospitals (CholeS). Cholecystectomies performed as elective procedures were divided into main (75%) and validation (25%) data sets. Preoperative predictors were identified, and a risk score of failed day case was devised using multivariate logistic regression. Receiver operating curve analysis was used to validate the score in the validation data set. Results Of the 7426 elective cholecystectomies performed, 49% of these were discharged home the same day. Same-day discharge following cholecystectomy was less likely with older patients (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.15–0.23), higher ASA scores (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.15–0.23), complicated cholelithiasis (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.48), male gender (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.58–0.74), previous acute gallstone-related admissions (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.48–0.60) and preoperative endoscopic intervention (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.34–0.47). The CAAD score was developed using these variables. When applied to the validation subgroup, a CAAD score of ≤5 was associated with 80.8% successful day-case cholecystectomy compared with 19.2% associated with a CAAD score >5 (p < 0.001). Conclusions The CAAD score which utilises data readily available from clinic letters and electronic sources can predict same-day discharges following cholecystectomy

Human papillomavirus subtype 16 is common in Pakistani women with cervical carcinoma

Introduction: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is recognized as a major causative agent for cervical carcinomas. Based on their oncogenic potential, HPV subtypes have been divided into high- and low-risk. In Pakistan, screening for HPV in female patients is not commonly practiced, and as a consequence, the degree of HPV prevalence and its correlation with cervical cancer is unknown. Objective: In this study, we have attempted to estimate the prevalence of HPV infection, and also the HPV subtype profile, among Pakistani women with cervical cancer from varied geographical, racial, and social backgrounds within Pakistan. Methodology: Women visiting two tertiary care hospitals in Karachi, diagnosed with carcinoma of the cervix within the past 15 years, were analyzed for HPV subtypes in their cancer specimens. Retrospectively, 60 paraffin-embedded cervical cancer biopsies were examined for the presence of HPV DNA. After DNA extraction from these samples, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to amplify the HPV L1 gene using the consensus (general) primers, and primers specific for subtypes 16 and 18. Results: Of the 60 samples analyzed, only one sample was HPV negative; the rest of the samples were positive for the presence of HPV. Of the 59 HPV positive samples, 56 showed the presence of HPV16 and one sample was positive for HPV18; HPV subtype could not be determined in two samples. Conclusion: Our results show a strong relationship between HPV infection and cervical cancer among Pakistani women. These results underscore the need to implement regular HPV screening for Pakistani women. An early diagnosis of HPV infection will allow better health management to reduce the risk of developing cervical cancer