Does TFP drive Housing Prices? A Growth Accounting Exercise for Four Countries

In this paper we investigate the role of technological differences between the construction sector and the general economy in the evolution of real housing prices. In particular we ask whether the recent soar in housing prices across countries reflects the different trends of total factor productivity (TFP) in the construction sector versus the other sectors. To do this, we first compare housing and construction prices in the U.S., the U.K., Germany and Spain. We find that the two prices follow a similar pattern before 1997 and diverge afterwards in all countries. Second, we perform a growth accounting exercise to measure the contribution of relative TFP on the price of construction relative to GDP for the four countries. We find evidence of a strong positive contribution of relative TFP to construction prices in the case of the United States and Germany. Instead, in the case of Spain and the U.K., relative TFP has contributed negatively to the evolution of construction prices, which have grown due to the dynamics of wages and capital returns. We conclude that in these two countries, market conditions, rather than technological factors, have been the main culprits of the recent soar in housing prices

Schumpeterian Foundations of Real Business Cycles

Technology shocks are at the core of real business cycle models. Although tra- ditionaly described as exogenous, technology shocks can be the result of the endoge- nous decisions by economic agents under uncertainty. To demostrate it, in this paper I develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that incorporates Schum- peterian endogenous growth features that affect the convergence to the steady-state. In this model, technology advances are due to the introduction of vertical innovations by entrepreneurs who try to become monopolists in different economic sectors. En- trepreneurs? ventures are ?nanced by banks. The model is solved and estimated by bayesian methods for the United States economy to compute the value of some of its structural parameters. Results show that for a country close to the technology fron- tier, the presented innovation mechanism is roughly equivalent in terms of volatilies, correlations and impulse responses to technology shocks in real business cycle mod- els. Therefore, the behavior of the productivity can be due not only to technology considerations but also to ?nancial and entrepreneurial reasons.

Does TFP drive Housing Prices? A Growth Accounting Exercise for Four Countries

In this paper we investigate the role of technological differences between the construction sector and the general economy in the evolution of real housing prices. In particular we ask whether the recent soar in housing prices across countries reflects the different trends of total factor productivity (TFP) in the construction sector versus the other sectors. To do this, we first compare housing and construction prices in the U.S., the U.K., Germany and Spain. We find that the two prices follow a similar pattern before 1997 and diverge afterwards in all countries. Second, we perform a growth accounting exercise to measure the contribution of relative TFP on the price of construction relative to GDP for the four countries. We find evidence of a strong positive contribution of relative TFP to construction prices in the case of the United States and Germany. Instead, in the case of Spain and the U.K., relative TFP has contributed negatively to the evolution of construction prices, which have grown due to the dynamics of wages and capital returns. We conclude that in these two countries, market conditions, rather than technological factors, have been the main culprits of the recent soar in housing prices.House prices; TFP; growth accounting; Cobb-Douglas

Saudi Aramco and the oil market

We present a general equilibrium model of the global oil market, in which the oil price, oil production, and consumption, are jointly determined as outcomes of the optimizing decisions of oil importers and oil exporters. On the supply side the oil market is modelled as a dominant firm – Saudi Aramco – with competitive fringe. We establish that a dominant firm may exist as long as it enjoys a cost advantage over the fringe. We provide an expression for the optimal markup and compute the spare capacity maintained by such a firm. The model produces plausible dynamic in response to oil supply and oil demand shocks. In particular, it reproduces successfully the jump in oil output of Saudi Aramco following the output collapse of Iraq and Kuwait during the first Gulf War, explaining it as the profit-maximizing response of the dominant firm. Oil taxes and subsidies affect the oil price and welfare through their effect on the trade-off between oil production efficiency and oil market competition. JEL Classification: E32, Q43dominant firm, Oil Price, oil production, oil tax, Saudi Aramco

Learning from experience in the stock market

We study the dynamics of a Lucas-tree model with finitely lived agents who "learn from experience." Individuals update expectations by Bayesian learning based on observations from their own lifetimes. In this model, the stock price exhibits stochastic boom-and-bust fluctuations around the rational expectations equilibrium. This heterogeneous-agents economy can be approximated by a representative-agent model with constant-gain learning, where the gain parameter is related to the survival rate. JEL Classification: G12, D83, D84assett pricing, bubbles, Heterogeneous Agents, Learning from experience, OLG

Technology, convergence and business cycles

In this paper we integrate Schumpeterian endogenous growth into a general equilibrium framework. By explicitely modelling the innovation and technology adoption process we are able to match some stylized economic facts such as entry rates and survival times of firms in the U.S. economy or the maximum convergence rates accross countries. Additionally, it allows us to propose a new definition of what a technology shock is and to compare it with the standard definition. Results show how this framework provides a plausible description of how economies grow and respond to the arrival of new technologie

Monetary policy implications of central bank-issued digital currency

Artículo de revistaThis article analyses the concept of digital currency issuable by a central bank, highlighting its similarities to and differences from the two main liabilities on its balance sheet: cash and bank reserves. It also discusses the main reasons why some central banks are looking into the potential consequences of the introduction of this new instrument. Lastly, it considers different central bank digital currency alternatives and highlights some of the possible implications for monetary policy conduct and for financial stabilit

Optimal research and development expenditure : a general equilibrium approach

How much should be spent in research and development (R&D)? How should R&D vary over the business cycle? In this paper we answer both questions in the context of a calibrated dynamic general equilibrium model with Schumpeterian endogenous growth. Firstly, we demonstrate that, although the existence of distortions in a decentralized economy produces underinvestment in R&D, a simple proportional subsidy to R&D spending alone cannot restore the first best allocation. The optimal proportional R&D subsidy attains a second best allocation in which R&D spending exceeds its first best level. Secondly, we show how the observed procyclicality of R&D is socially inefficient. However, the welfare loss due to this dynamic inefficiency is much smaller than the loss due to underinvestment in R&

The process of economic adjustment following financial crises : a historical perspective

Artículo de revist

Oilgopoly : a general equilibrium model of the oil-macroeconomy nexus

Saudi Arabia is the largest player in the world oil market. It maintains ample spare capacity, restricts investment in developing reserves, and its output is negatively correlated with other OPEC producers. While this behavior does not fit into the perfect competition paradigm, we show that it can be rationalized as that of a dominant producer with competitive fringe. We build a quantitative general equilibrium model along these lines which is capable of matching the historical volatility of the oil price, competitive and non-competitive oil output, and of generating the observed comovement among the oil price, oil quantities, and U.S. GDP. We use our framework to answer questions on which available models are silent: (1) What are the proximate determinants of the oil price and how do they vary over the cycle? (2) How large are oil profits and what losses do they imply for oil-importers? (3) What do different fundamental shocks imply for the comovement of oil prices and GDP? (4) What are the general equilibrium effects of taxes on oil consumption or oil production? We find, in particular, that the existence of an oil production distortion does not necessarily justify an oil consumption tax different from zer