Variance Swaps and Intertemporal Asset Pricing

This paper proposes an ICAPM in which the risk premium embedded in variance swaps is the factor mimicking portfolio for hedging exposure to changes in future investment conditions. Recent empirical evidence shows that the fears by investors to deviations from Normality in the distribution of returns are able to explain time-varying financial and macroeconomic risks in addition to being a determinant of the variance risk premium. Moreover, variance swaps hedges unfavorable changes in the stochastic investment opportunity set, and is not a redundant asset because significantly expands the efficient mean-variance frontier. Thence, we should expect the variance swap risk incremental pricing information associated with the variance risk premium, particularly at shorter horizons.variance risk premium, intertemporal asset pricing

State-Uncertainty preferences and the Risk Premium in the Exchange rate market

This paper introduces state-uncertainty preferences into the Lucas (1982) economy, showing that this type of preferences helps to explain the exchange rate risk premium. Under these preferences we can distinguish between two factors driving the exchange rate risk premium: “macroeconomic risk” and “the risk associated with variation in the private agents’ perception on the level of uncertainty”. State-uncertainty preferences amount to assuming that a given level of consumption will yield a higher level of utility the lower is the level of uncertainty perceived by consumers. Furthermore, empirical evidence from three main European economies in the transition period to the euro provides empirical support for the modelForecasting, subspace methods, combining forecasts.

State-Uncertainty preferences and the Risk Premium in the Exchange rate market

This paper introduces state-uncertainty preferences into the Lucas (1982) economy, showing that this type of preferences helps to explain the exchange rate risk premium. Under these preferences we can distinguish between two factors driving the exchange rate risk premium: “macroeconomic risk” and “the risk associated with variation in the private agents’ perception on the level of uncertainty”. State-uncertainty preferences amount to assuming that a given level of consumption will yield a higher level of utility the lower is the level of uncertainty perceived by consumers. Furthermore, empirical evidence from three main European economies in the transition period to the euro provides empirical support for the modelRisk premium, taste shocks, fundamental uncertainty.

Why do variance swaps exist?

This paper studies the determinants of the variance risk premium and concludes on the hedging possibilities offered by variance swaps. We start by showing that the variance risk premium responds to changes in higher order moments of the distribution of market returns. But the uncertainty that determines the variance risk premium –the fear by investors to deviations from Normality in returns- is also strongly related to a variety of risks: risk of default, employment growth risk, consumption growth risk, stock market risk and market illiquidity risk. Therefore, the variance risk premium could be interpreted as reflecting the market willingness to pay for hedging against financial and macroeconomic sources of risk. We provide additional evidence in support of that view.Variance risk premium, Non-normality, Economic risks, Hedging

A factor analysis of volatility across the term structure: the Spanish case

We show how the term structure of volatilities for zero-cupon interest rates from the Spanish secondary debt market can be explained by a reduced number of factors. This factor representation can be used to produce time series volatilities across the whole term structure. As an alternative, volatilities can also be derived from a factor model for interest rates themselves. We find evidence contrary to the hypothesis that these two procedures lead to statistically equivalent time series, so that choosing the right model to estimate volatility is far from trivial. The volatility factor model fits univariate EGARCH volatility time series much better than the interest rate factor model does. However, observed differences seem to be of little consequence for VaR estimation on zero coupon bonds

Estrategias de inmunización ante posibles desplazamientos en la estructura temporal

Salvo en situaciones excepcionales de compensación entre los efectos de pendiente y curvatura, los cambios experimentados por la estructura temporal en el mercado español de deuda están muy alejados de ser desplazamientos paralelos. Por tanto, se hace necesario desarrollar estrategias de inmunización vectorial. Hemos estimado el modelo de Nelson y Siegel para la curva cupón cero desde noviembre 1992 a octubre 1996. Los parámetros utilizados en dicha representación pueden interpretarse como factores explicativos de la estructura intertemporal, lo que abre múltiples posibilidades de explotación práctica de las series temporales de estimaciones generadas en este trabajo. Analizar si existe una inmunización vectorial especifica que mejora significativamente los resultados obtenidos con una inmunización basada unicamente en replicar la duración de la cartera es uno de los temas abiertos de mayor interés

Dynamic Laffer curves

Se discute la posibilidad de cambios en la política fiscal que mejoren el bienestar en las economías reales, en un modelo de crecimiento endógeno con acumulación de capital humano. Abstract In an endogenous growth model with human capital accumulation, we discuss the possibility of welfare improving changes on the 1scal policy stance in some actual economies. First, we characterize the extent to which the initial fall in revenues produced by a permanent tax cut can be compensated by an increase in the tax base, due to a dynamic La#er curve e#ect, showing that there is, in fact, a non-trivial margin for substituting debt for taxes on labor and capital income. Second, we show that the largest feasible reduction in labor income tax rates may easily produce a higher welfare gain than the largest feasible reduction in capital income tax rates. Two quali1cations: (a) feasible tax cuts exist only for a relatively high elasticity of intertemporal substitution of consumption, and (b) the preference for the largest feasible tax cut on labor income rather than that on capital income reverses for a low appreciation for leisure, relative to consumption, in the preferences of the representative agent

Price Volatility Under Alternative Monetary Instruments

When private agents have difficulty in interpreting price fluctuacions, they are led into suboptimal allocations of resources. Consequently, price uncertainty is an undesirable feature of a business cycle. However, the way how monetary po1icy is implemented may influence the size of the unpredictable component of price fluctuacions and hence, the welfare of the private agents in the economy. This paper addresses the long standing issue of the optimal choice of a monetary instrument under uncertainty. Ina money-in the-utility function modeL it is shown that this is far from being a purely monetary issue, and also that the optirnal choice of instrument depends on the fiscal policy in effect. If the Govemment collects enough taxes, relative to its expenditures, a nominal interest rate policy produces a more stable price level, the opposite being true when taxes are low, relative to Government expenditures