On cosmic acceleration without dark energy

We elaborate on the proposal that the observed acceleration of the Universe is the result of the backreaction of cosmological perturbations, rather than the effect of a negative-pressure dark-energy fluid or a modification of general relativity. Through the effective Friedmann equations describing an inhomogeneous Universe after smoothing, we demonstrate that acceleration in our local Hubble patch is possible even if fluid elements do not individually undergo accelerated expansion. This invalidates the no-go theorem that there can be no acceleration in our local Hubble patch if the Universe only contains irrotational dust. We then study perturbatively the time behavior of general-relativistic cosmological perturbations, applying, where possible, the renormalization group to regularize the dynamics. We show that an instability occurs in the perturbative expansion involving sub-Hubble modes. Whether this is an indication that acceleration in our Hubble patch originates from the backreaction of cosmological perturbations on observable scales requires a fully non-perturbative approach.Comment: 33 pages, LaTeX file. Revised to match the final version accepted for publication in NJ

Spatially-coordinated airborne data and complementary products for aerosol, gas, cloud, and meteorological studies: The NASA ACTIVATE dataset

The NASA Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) produced a unique dataset for research into aerosol-cloud-meteorology interactions. An HU-25 Falcon and King Air conducted systematic and spatially coordinated flights over the northwest Atlantic Ocean. This paper describes the ACTIVATE flight strategy, instrument and complementary dataset products, data access and usage details, and data application notes

Trajectory and Demographic Correlates of Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 Nucleocapsid in Recently Infected Blood Donors, United States

We evaluated antibodies to the nucleocapsid protein of SARS-CoV-2 in a large cohort of blood donors in the United States who were recently infected with the virus. Antibodies to the nucleocapsid protein of SARS-CoV-2 indicate previous infection but are subject to waning, potentially affecting epidemiologic studies. We longitudinally evaluated a cohort of 19,323 blood donors who had evidence of recent infection by using a widely available serologic test to determine the dynamics of such waning. We analyzed overall signal-to-cutoff values for 48,330 donations (average 2.5 donations/person) that had an average observation period of 102 days. The observed peak signal-to-cutoff value varied widely, but the waning rate was consistent across the range, with a half-life of 122 days. Within the cohort, only 0.75% of persons became seronegative. Factors predictive of higher peak values and longer time to seroreversion included increasing age, male sex, higher body mass index, and non-Caucasian race

Use of US Blood Donors for National Serosurveillance of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Antibodies: Basis for an Expanded National Donor Serosurveillance Program.

BackgroundThe Recipient Epidemiology and Donor Evaluation Study-IV-Pediatric (REDS-IV-P) Epidemiology, Surveillance and Preparedness of the Novel SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic (RESPONSE) seroprevalence study conducted monthly cross-sectional testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies in blood donors in 6 US metropolitan regions to estimate the extent of SARS-CoV-2 infections over time.MethodsDuring March-August 2020, approximately ≥1000 serum specimens were collected monthly from each region and tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using a well-validated algorithm. Regional seroprevalence estimates were weighted based on demographic differences compared with the general population. Seroprevalence was compared with reported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case rates over time.ResultsFor all regions, seroprevalence was <1.0% in March 2020. New York, New York, experienced the biggest increase (peak seroprevalence, 15.8% in May). All other regions experienced modest increases in seroprevalence (1%-2% in May-June to 2%-4% in July-August). Seroprevalence was higher in younger, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic donors. Temporal increases in donor seroprevalence correlated with reported case rates in each region. In August, 1.3-5.6 estimated cumulative infections (based on seroprevalence data) per COVID-19 case were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.ConclusionsIncreases in seroprevalence were found in all regions, with the largest increase in New York. Seroprevalence was higher in non-Hispanic black and Hispanic than in non-Hispanic white blood donors. SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing of blood donor samples can be used to estimate the seroprevalence in the general population by region and demographic group. The methods derived from the RESPONSE seroprevalence study served as the basis for expanding SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence surveillance to all 50 states and Puerto Rico

Demographics of first‐time donors returning for donation during the pandemic: COVID‐19 convalescent plasma versus standard blood product donors

BackgroundPrevious studies have demonstrated low first-time donor return rates (DRR) following catastrophic events. Little is known, however, about the influence of demographic factors on the DRR of first-time donors during the COVID-19 pandemic, including the unique motivation of COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) donors as compared to non-CCP donors.Study design and methodsThirteen blood collection organizations submitted deidentified data from first-time CCP and non-CCP donors returning for regular (non-CCP) donations during the pandemic. DRR was calculated as frequencies. Demographic factors associated with returning donors: race/ethnicity, gender, and generation (Gen Z: 19-24, Millennial: 25-40, Gen X: 41-56, and Boomer: ≥57 years old), within the CCP and non-CCP first-time cohorts were compared using chi-square test at p < .05 statistical significance.ResultsFrom March 2020 through December 2021, there were a total of 44,274 first-time CCP and 980,201 first-time non-CCP donors. DRR were 14.6% (range 11.9%-43.3%) and 46.6% (range 10.0%-76.9%) for CCP and non-CCP cohorts, respectively. Age over 40 years (Gen X and Boomers), female gender, and White race were each associated with higher return in both donor cohorts (p < .001). For the non-CCP return donor cohort, the Millennial and Boomers were comparable.ConclusionThe findings demonstrate differences in returning donor trends between the two donor cohorts. The motivation of a first-time CCP donor may be different than that of a non-CCP donor. Further study to improve first-time donor engagement would be worthwhile to expand the donor base with a focus on blood donor diversity emphasizing engagement of underrepresented minorities and younger donors

How do we…form and coordinate a national serosurvey of SARS-CoV-2 within the blood collection industry?

BackgroundA national serosurvey of U.S. blood donors conducted in partnership with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was initiated to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infections and vaccinations.MethodsBeginning in July 2020, the Nationwide Blood Donor Seroprevalence Study collaborated with multiple blood collection organizations, testing labs, and leadership from government partners to capture, test, and analyze approximately 150,000 blood donation specimens per month in a repeated, cross-sectional seroprevalence survey.ResultsA CDC website (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#nationwide-blood-donor-seroprevalence) provided stratified, population-level results to public health professionals and the general public.DiscussionThe study adapted operations as the pandemic evolved, changing specimen flow and testing algorithms, and collecting additional data elements in response to changing policies on universal blood donation screening and administration of SARS-CoV-2 spike-based vaccines. The national serosurvey demonstrated the utility of serosurveillance testing of residual blood donations and highlighted the role of the blood collection industry in public-private partnerships during a public health emergency

Respiratory support in patients with severe COVID-19 in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection (ISARIC) COVID-19 study: a prospective, multinational, observational study

Background: Up to 30% of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 require advanced respiratory support, including high-flow nasal cannulas (HFNC), non-invasive mechanical ventilation (NIV), or invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). We aimed to describe the clinical characteristics, outcomes and risk factors for failing non-invasive respiratory support in patients treated with severe COVID-19 during the first two years of the pandemic in high-income countries (HICs) and low middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods: This is a multinational, multicentre, prospective cohort study embedded in the ISARIC-WHO COVID-19 Clinical Characterisation Protocol. Patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection who required hospital admission were recruited prospectively. Patients treated with HFNC, NIV, or IMV within the first 24 h of hospital admission were included in this study. Descriptive statistics, random forest, and logistic regression analyses were used to describe clinical characteristics and compare clinical outcomes among patients treated with the different types of advanced respiratory support. Results: A total of 66,565 patients were included in this study. Overall, 82.6% of patients were treated in HIC, and 40.6% were admitted to the hospital during the first pandemic wave. During the first 24 h after hospital admission, patients in HICs were more frequently treated with HFNC (48.0%), followed by NIV (38.6%) and IMV (13.4%). In contrast, patients admitted in lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs) were less frequently treated with HFNC (16.1%) and the majority received IMV (59.1%). The failure rate of non-invasive respiratory support (i.e. HFNC or NIV) was 15.5%, of which 71.2% were from HIC and 28.8% from LMIC. The variables most strongly associated with non-invasive ventilation failure, defined as progression to IMV, were high leukocyte counts at hospital admission (OR [95%CI]; 5.86 [4.83-7.10]), treatment in an LMIC (OR [95%CI]; 2.04 [1.97-2.11]), and tachypnoea at hospital admission (OR [95%CI]; 1.16 [1.14-1.18]). Patients who failed HFNC/NIV had a higher 28-day fatality ratio (OR [95%CI]; 1.27 [1.25-1.30]). Conclusions: In the present international cohort, the most frequently used advanced respiratory support was the HFNC. However, IMV was used more often in LMIC. Higher leucocyte count, tachypnoea, and treatment in LMIC were risk factors for HFNC/NIV failure. HFNC/NIV failure was related to worse clinical outcomes, such as 28-day mortality. Trial registration This is a prospective observational study; therefore, no health care interventions were applied to participants, and trial registration is not applicable