Medical Care Costs Associated with Postmenopausal Estrogen Plus Progestogen Therapy

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the medical management costs of estrogen plus progestogen hormone therapy (HT) among postmenopausal women taking HT primarily as a preventive treatment for osteoporosis. DESIGN: Retrospective longitudinal comparative analysis of HT users and demographically matched nonusers using administrative databases on physician services, hospital stays and prescription medications. SETTING: Saskatchewan, Canada. PATIENTS: a total of 5762 women aged 55 years or more who took HT sometime between 1990 and 1997 and 5762 demographically matched controls who did not take HT from 1990 to 1997. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: total medical care expenditures and apparent costs of managing adverse events associated with HT. RESULTS: Excluding drug acquisition costs for HT and costs of care for osteoporosis, women in their first year of postmenopausal HT had total medical care costs about $400 greater than women who had never used HT (1997 Canadian dollars). This total medical care cost differential falls to about$90 to $120 per annum after the first year of therapy. If osteoporosis-related medical care costs are not excluded, the cost differential is about$390 during the first year of therapy and $80 to$110 per annum after the first year of therapy. These excess costs primarily are the result of excess rates of resource utilization for uterine- and breast-related diagnostic and treatment procedures. CONCLUSION: Medical management costs for HT may be substantial during the first year of therapy, and some medical management costs may persist over several years. These short-term management costs, combined with recent data about the long-term safety of HT as a preventive therapy, reinforce the importance of considering therapeutic alternatives to HT

Mitochondrial physiology

As the knowledge base and importance of mitochondrial physiology to evolution, health and disease expands, the necessity for harmonizing the terminology concerning mitochondrial respiratory states and rates has become increasingly apparent. The chemiosmotic theory establishes the mechanism of energy transformation and coupling in oxidative phosphorylation. The unifying concept of the protonmotive force provides the framework for developing a consistent theoretical foundation of mitochondrial physiology and bioenergetics. We follow the latest SI guidelines and those of the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) on terminology in physical chemistry, extended by considerations of open systems and thermodynamics of irreversible processes. The concept-driven constructive terminology incorporates the meaning of each quantity and aligns concepts and symbols with the nomenclature of classical bioenergetics. We endeavour to provide a balanced view of mitochondrial respiratory control and a critical discussion on reporting data of mitochondrial respiration in terms of metabolic flows and fluxes. Uniform standards for evaluation of respiratory states and rates will ultimately contribute to reproducibility between laboratories and thus support the development of data repositories of mitochondrial respiratory function in species, tissues, and cells. Clarity of concept and consistency of nomenclature facilitate effective transdisciplinary communication, education, and ultimately further discovery

Welfare Reform, Insurance Coverage Pre-Pregnancy, and Timely Enrollment: An Eight-State Study

Implementation of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) broke the automatic linkage between Medicaid eligibility/enrollment and welfare cash assistance for women eligible at welfare income levels. This study used data from the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) for the period 1996–1999 to examine insurance coverage of these and other pregnant women pre- and post-PRWORA. Controlling for individual characteristics and economic growth, the relative odds of having private insurance did not change while the odds of being Medicaid enrolled versus uninsured pre-pregnancy declined for welfare-eligible women post-PRWORA. The absolute effect was a decline of 7.9 percentage points in the probability of welfare-eligible women being insured. While these results apply to the early years of welfare reform, it is still likely that states can improve Medicaid outreach and enrollment of women eligible prior to pregnancy

Racial Disparities in Medicaid Enrollment and Prenatal Care Initiation Among Pregnant Teens in Florida

BACKGROUND: Teens and racial and ethnic minority women are less likely to initiate prenatal care (PNC) in the first trimester of pregnancy than their counterparts. OBJECTIVE: This study examines the impact of Medicaid program changes in the late 1990s on the timing of Medicaid enrollment and PNC initiation among pregnant teens by race and ethnicity. RESEARCH DESIGN: Using Medicaid enrollment and claims data and a difference-in-differences method, we examine how the patterns of prepregnancy Medicaid enrollment, PNC initiation, and racial and ethnic disparities in PNC changed over time after controlling for person- and county-level characteristics. SUBJECTS: We included 14,089 teens in Florida with a Medicaid-covered delivery in fiscal years 1995 and 2001. MEASURES: Prepregnancy enrollment was defined as enrollment 9 or more months before delivery; late or no PNC was defined as initiation of PNC within 3 months of delivery or not at all. RESULTS: For teens enrolled in traditional welfare-related categories, the proportion with prepregnancy Medicaid enrollment increased and the proportion with late or no PNC declined from 1995 to 2001. Teens enrolled under the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act (OBRA) expansion category in 2001 were less likely than welfare-related teen enrollees to have prepregnancy coverage but were more likely to initiate PNC early. Racial disparities were found in PNC initiation among the 1995 welfare-related group and the 2001 expansion group but were eliminated or greatly reduced among the 2001 welfare-related group. CONCLUSIONS: Providing public insurance coverage improves access to care but is not sufficient to meet Healthy People 2010 goals or eliminate racial and ethnic disparities in PNC initiation.http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/MLR.0b013e318187d8f

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. FindingsDuring the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. InterpretationFertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation