Do voters follow? The effect of party cues on public opinion during a process of policy change

A large body of literature has demonstrated how citizens use party endorsements when shaping their policy opinions. However, recent studies question the centrality of party cues in shaping public opinion. This study advances the literature with a four-wave panel survey design that measures citizens’ policy opinions before, during and after a controversial policy proposal to ban street begging was made by the Norwegian government in 2014. Two main findings inform previous work. First, voters are modestly affected by party cues as the proposition turns salient. Second, when a party shifts their policy position on a highly salient issue, voters do not automatically shift their opinions accordingly. Thus, the magnitude and direction of opinion change in the electorate indicate that party cue effects are modest and that instead of polarizing patterns across time parallel publics moving in the same direction independent of party cues are detected. These findings demonstrate that under some conditions, voters’ opinion formation is less dependent on partisan elites than much of the previous work indicates.publishedVersio

Carbon capture and storage - Publics in five countries around the north sea prefer to do it on their own territory

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) has been identified as an essential part of the lowest-cost path toward reaching the goals of the Paris Agreement. In Europe, an accelerated pace of CCS development indicates that a CO2 transport and storage system could be established by 2030. However, we know little about how the public views the market for transport and storage of CO2 currently under development in Europe. In early 2023, we conducted an experimental comparative survey to study public opinions on cross-border CO2 trade for storage in Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and the UK. The share of respondents that perceive CCS as somewhat positive or very positive varies considerably between the countries; we find the highest share in Denmark (69%), followed by the UK (68%), Norway (67%), the Netherlands (57%) and the lowest share in Germany (49%). Especially concerns about environmental risks and costs lead to more negative views, while perceptions of job creation and economic opportunities lead to more positive evaluations. The experimental results show that importing CO2 for storage is among the least preferred options in all countries, while the storage of CO2 that has been captured in the own country is the most preferred option; the gap in the share of positive evaluations is substantial and amounts to up to 20 percentage points in the UK. Respondents who feel that countries are responsible for reducing national greenhouse gas emissions and storing their own captured CO2 drive the pattern of a more positive evaluation of a domestic CCS value chain and a more negative evaluation of importing CO2.Carbon capture and storage - Publics in five countries around the north sea prefer to do it on their own territorypublishedVersio

7. Barnehagetilsynet i den kommunale oppfølginga av rammeplanen

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Best practices for developing a human centered monitoring system for CO2 storage projects through a collaborative and interdisciplinary research approach

This deliverable was created in the context of the European ACT II project DigiMon and is part of work package 3 (designing a human-centered monitoring system), task 3.3 (evaluation of the research process and writing best practices report)

Report on the outcomes of the Societal Embeddedness Level Assessment for CCS in four countries: Norway, the Netherlands, Greece and Germany

This document (DigiMon deliverable D3.2) describes the assessment of societal embeddedness level (SEL) of CCS in Norway, the Netherlands, Greece and Germany. It also provides recommendations for improving the societal embeddedness of CCS technology per country

Frivilligsentralenes kjennetegn og betydning i storbyene

Denne rapporten er basert på en kvantitativ og kvalitativ studie av frivilligsentralenes roller og funksjoner i storbyene i Norge. I rapporten undersøker vi 1) Hvordan frivilligsentralene er innrettet, organisert og drevet og hvilken samhandling de har med lokalsamfunnet, 2) Hvilken betydning storbyenes frivilligsentraler har for utviklingen og vekst i det uorganiserte frivillige engasjementet og det frivillige organisasjonslivet, 3) På hvilke måter frivilligsentralene blir benyttet for å fremme lokalbefolkningens egne ideer og initiativ, og 4) Hvilke utfordringer frivilligsentralene står ovenfor som knutepunkt mellom frivillige, organisasjoner og kommuner. Rapporten er ment som innspill til storbyenes planer og strategier for samhandling og samarbeid med frivilligsentralene.publishedVersio

Do voters follow? The effect of party cues on public opinion during a process of policy change

A large body of literature has demonstrated how citizens use party endorsements when shaping their policy opinions. However, recent studies question the centrality of party cues in shaping public opinion. This study advances the literature with a four-wave panel survey design that measures citizens’ policy opinions before, during and after a controversial policy proposal to ban street begging was made by the Norwegian government in 2014. Two main findings inform previous work. First, voters are modestly affected by party cues as the proposition turns salient. Second, when a party shifts their policy position on a highly salient issue, voters do not automatically shift their opinions accordingly. Thus, the magnitude and direction of opinion change in the electorate indicate that party cue effects are modest and that instead of polarizing patterns across time parallel publics moving in the same direction independent of party cues are detected. These findings demonstrate that under some conditions, voters’ opinion formation is less dependent on partisan elites than much of the previous work indicates

Consistent Citizens? Exploring and Explaining Mechanisms of Opinion Change

This dissertation examines patterns of public opinion change and their determinants from the perspectives of both internal and external theories of opinion change. Based on new and original panel data on Norwegian citizens’ opinions on a range of policy issues from 2009 to 2017, this study contributes four main insights, summarized in the concept of ‘the consistent citizen’. First, the dissertation reveals a comparatively low level of opinion change both when opinion change is studied both in the short run and the long run, and across an exhaustive range of political issues. Thus, I argue that people change their political opinions to a moderate extent, thereby challenging long-standing scholarly beliefs about the widespread volatility of mass public opinion. Second, the dissertation demonstrates that opinion change is somewhat influenced by (a) party cues, although the effects differ depending on the party’s role in the policy process and the saliency of the issue; (b) political awareness; and (c) issue importance. That said, all these conventional expectations prove more modest than what much of the previous literature has argued. Moreover, in terms of effect size, the biggest effect on opinion change is assigned to (d) external shocks, while (e) the political salience of the policy issue at hand is found to have more moderate effects on opinion volatility. Therefore, I argue that when opinion change takes place, it happens in predictable ways given the context of the policy issue at hand and individual preconditions. Third, another main finding is that sudden extensive changes in public opinion due to external events do not necessarily cause a permanent shift in preferences. I identify an attitudinal baseline that citizens move away from in response to a sudden exogenous shock and yet revert to after a considerable amount of time has passed. Consequently, I argue that the existence of a baseline attitude serves to support the argument that citizens’ attitudes are grounded in broader beliefs (such as ideologies or values). Fourth, following citizens’ policy opinions across one gradual process of policy formation and one where there is an exogenous shock to the political system, this dissertation suggests that understanding the context is important to predicting opinion change. Studying opinion developments in real-time settings, I argue that the rhetorical environment that surrounds an issue, as well as the political and societal contexts that it operates within, is likely to contribute to both the scope and timing of opinion change. Overall, these findings suggest that on average, citizens are consistent and able to manage their role as democratic citizens by holding mainly stable baseline opinions as long as nothing happens, yet they are responsive to actual changes in the political environment. This sketch of a consistent median citizen challenges much of the existing literature and have important implications for how we evaluate citizens’ democratic competence within normative democratic theory. By studying an exhaustive range of policy issues within one polity across an extended period of time using different data sources with differing modes of conduct and time between waves, this dissertation offers one of the most comprehensive studies of opinion instability within a European multi-party polity. As the European literature on opinion instability is scattered and inconclusive, adding one more study to the European body of research is a contribution in itself. Moreover, by utilizing observational panel data, I can make more sound causal conclusions about the patterns of attitude change as they take place in the real world and take context more systematically into account. In sum, the empirical and methodological approaches undertaken in this thesis provide both substantive knowledge and improved causal evidence about the scope of opinion change and its mechanisms within a multi-party system

Holdninger til klimaendringer og ulike klimapolitiske tiltak blant Trøndelags innbyggere

Denne rapporten ser på norske innbyggere sine holdninger til klimaendringer og ulike klimapolitiske løsninger med fokus på innbyggerne i Trøndelag fylke. Rapporten benytter seg av data fra Norsk Medborgerpanel (NMP), produsert av Kjernefasilitet for digital samfunnsvitenskap (DIGSSCORE) ved Universitetet i Bergen.publishedVersio

Holdninger til klimaendringer og ulike klimapolitiske tiltak blant Trøndelags innbyggere

Denne rapporten ser på norske innbyggere sine holdninger til klimaendringer og ulike klimapolitiske løsninger med fokus på innbyggerne i Trøndelag fylke. Rapporten benytter seg av data fra Norsk Medborgerpanel (NMP), produsert av Kjernefasilitet for digital samfunnsvitenskap (DIGSSCORE) ved Universitetet i Bergen