Opportunity For Incident In Maritime System Counting Process And Modeling.

An accident can be considered as the culmination of a series of cascading events starting with a triggering incident

Analysis of MCLP, Q-MALP, and MQ-MALP with Travel Time Uncertainty Using Monte Carlo Simulation

This paper compares the application of theMonte Carlo simulation in incorporating travel time uncertainties in ambulance location problem using three models: Maximum Covering Location Problem (MCLP), Queuing Maximum Availability Location Problem (Q-MALP), andMultiserver QueuingMaximum Availability Location Problem (MQ-MALP). A heuristic method is developed to site the ambulances.The models are applied to the 33-node problem representing Austin, Texas, and the 55-node problem. For the 33-node problem, the results showthat the servers are less spatially distributed in Q-MALP andMQ-MALPwhen the uncertainty of server availability is considered using either the independent or dependent travel time. On the other hand, for the 55-node problem, the spatial distribution of the servers obtained by locating a server to the highest hit node location is more dispersed inMCLP and Q-MALP.The implications of the new model for the ambulance services system design are discussed as well as the limitations of the modeling approach

Group decision via usage of analytic hierarchy process and preference aggregation method (Keputusan berkumpulan menggunakan proses hierarki analisis dan kaedah pengagregatan keutamaan)

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a recognised modern approach to solve decision making problems. Initially introduced by Saaty in 1971 as a tool for handling individual decision making situation, the method has since been extended to incorporate groups. In this paper, a new method for AHP group decision making is proposed. The method integrates AHP with a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)-based preferential aggregation method. It manipulates the preferential weights and ranking aspect of each decision maker in coming up with an optimisation model that determines the best efficiency score of each alternatives. These efficiency scores are then used to rank the alternatives and determine the group decision weights. A comparative analysis of the method with another AHP group decision making method indicates a similar ‘satisfactory index’ level

Simulating the impact of an increase in patient volume on a government emergency department in Malaysia

This paper explores the potential of computer simulation model to access the effect of patient increase to emergency department performance and the patient flow.A simulation model of emergency department is developed based on discrete even simulation and system dynamics modeling approach to capture the behavior of an integrated system.Several scenarios are conducted to help management determine the required resources due to patient: volume increase that will not breach the national target time for patient to be attended to in emergency department.Results from the scenarios show that a 7% increase of patients affects most of the performance measures.In addition, medical assistants are the important resources in emergency department operations

Identifying the psychosocial aspects of crowd during pilgrimage: the experiences of a group of Pakistani female hajj pilgrims

Hajj is a series of activities which involve the presence of many people of diverse backgrounds in specific sites. It is an annual event which necessitates Muslims from all over the world to travel to Makkah during the Hajj season. The participation in hajj involves a number of remarkable experiences by the pilgrims who encounter various new incidents that involve their physical, psychosocial and social experiences. Despite the widely reported accounts of hajj, less has been conducted to study the experience of people who travel from different parts of the world to Makkah. The objective of this paper is to report the findings from a focus group discussion which examined the experiences of hajj among Pakistani female pilgrims. Data was collected from 11 respondents from Lahore, Pakistan. They were required to state their confrontations in hajj sites; and the reasons for having such experiences. They reported both positive and negative feelings during hajj; highlighted their and others’ pattern of behaviours when performing hajj including commendable and hazardous actions that they observed among pilgrims and hajj service providers. They also reported their concerns over crowd management issues, and the pilgrims’ lack of mental preparation to be with others of different cultural backgrounds. The findings serve as a basis for the development of interventions to help hajj managers, policy makers, and future hajj pilgrims to understand the psychological states and sociological conditions during hajj

Evaluating emergency department resource capacity using simulation

Emergency departments open 24 hours every day and may receive patients at any time most unexpectedly.Adequate resource planning to meet the various demands in emergency departments is arguably amongst the most critical challenges faced by hospital administrators due to the complexity of the system and diverse patient flows.In this paper, we present a computer simulation model to evaluate resource utilization among personnel and physical resources in a typical emergency department (ED) of a government hospital in Malaysia.The model allows administrators to see patient movement flows as well as how these flows are affected by resource capacity level in the ED.The use of this simulation model helps to evaluate ED operations, provides useful insight for possible areas of improvement, and directs the allocation of specific resources for maximal impact. Three scenarios were tested to find out the impact of patient surge on ED performance measures. Results from the scenarios show that a 30% increase of attendances according to triage zones affects most of the performance measures.In addition, medical assistants are the critical resources with average utilization greater than 70%

Fracture strength of endodontically treated lateral incisors restored with new zirconia reinforced rice husk nanohybrid composite

This study aimed to compare the fracture strength, fracture pattern and type of fracture of endodontically treated maxillary lateral incisors restored with new zirconia reinforced rice husk nanohybrid composite. Eighty mature permanent maxillary lateral incisors from patients age range of 30-60 years with single canal were selected and randomly divided into: Group 1 ? RCT + nanofilled composite (Filtek), Group 2 ? RCT + microhybrid composite (Zmack), Group 3 ? RCT + new nanohybrid composite (Zr-Hybrid) and Group 4 - Intact teeth (control). Standardized mesio-palatal-distal cavity was prepared, and endodontic treatment was carried out using crown-down technique until size 30, tapered 0.04. Obturation was completed using single cone technique with gutta-percha and AH plus sealer. Cavity access was restored with respective composite resins. Next, teeth were stored in incubator for 24 hours and subdivided into aged and unaged subgroups. Teeth in aged subgroups were subjected to 2500 thermal cycles for 5ºC, 37ºC and 55ºC with 30 seconds dwell time and 5 seconds transfer time. After that, root surfaces of teeth were covered with silicone-based material and placed in boxes filled with acrylic until the cemento-enamel-junction (CEJ) level. They were then tested under Universal Testing Machine until fracture occurred. Samples were then viewed under Leica microscope to determine the fracture pattern and type of fracture. Data analyzed using One-way ANOVA complimented by post hoc Tukey HSD and paired sample T test for fracture strength. Fracture pattern and type of fracture were analyzed using Chi-square test. Level of significance was set at p0.05). Besides, Group 3 and Group 4 showed higher rate of favorable fracture pattern, followed by Group 1 and lastly Group 2. Most favorable fracture pattern was noted to exhibit horizontal fracture type (86.36%), whereas most unfavorable fracture pattern exhibited vertical fracture type (77.78%). Endodontically treated teeth restored with new zirconia reinforced rice husk nanohybrid composite (Zr-Hybrid) demonstrated higher fracture strength than commercialized composite resins especially after artificial ageing. Zr-Hybrid showed similar fracture pattern to those of intact teeth with higher rate of horizontal fracture type

Bayesian network model of crowd emotion and negative behavior

The effects of overcrowding have become a major concern for event organizers. One aspect of this concern has been the idea that overcrowding can enhance the occurrence of serious incidents during events. As one of the largest Muslim religious gathering attended by pilgrims from all over the world, Hajj has become extremely overcrowded with many incidents being reported. The purpose of this study is to analyze the nature of human emotion and negative behavior resulting from overcrowding during Hajj events from data gathered in Malaysian Hajj Experience Survey in 2013. The sample comprised of 147 Malaysian pilgrims (70 males and 77 females). Utilizing a probabilistic model called Bayesian network, this paper models the dependence structure between different emotions and negative behaviors of pilgrims in the crowd. The model included the following variables of emotion: negative, negative comfortable, positive, positive comfortable and positive spiritual and variables of negative behaviors; aggressive and hazardous acts. The study demonstrated that emotions of negative, negative comfortable, positive spiritual and positive emotion have a direct influence on aggressive behavior whereas emotion of negative comfortable, positive spiritual and positive have a direct influence on hazardous acts behavior. The sensitivity analysis showed that a low level of negative and negative comfortable emotions leads to a lower level of aggressive and hazardous behavior. Findings of the study can be further improved to identify the exact cause and risk factors of crowd-related incidents in preventing crowd disasters during the mass gathering events

Comparison of discrete simulation models’ results in evaluating the performances of M/G/C/C networks

An M/G/C/C queuing network is a useful tool for modeling entity congestion.However, since its service rates is dependent on the number of entities (e.g. pedestrians,vehicles, etc.) in its system, direct modeling of such dynamic rates is difficult to be implemented in any modern Discrete Simulation System (DES) software.We designed an approach to cater this constraint and implemented it in Arena software to evaluate various performances of the M/G/C/C network.Using the models, we have compared their results with analytical results and the results of Cruz, Smith and Medeiros (2005)’s simulation models on the impacts of various arrival rates to the throughput, the blocking probability, the expected service time and the expected number of entities in a single and complex network topologies.Results indicated that there are very small discrepancies between the two DES models.Detail results on how close our simulation results and theirs have been documented and discussed

M/M/c/K state-dependent models for controlling the pilgrims and the design of hajj facilities

In Hajj overflow of pilgrims causes queuing delay and in turn, is controlled by the capacity of facilities. The concept of flow control can be used to avoid the building of extreme queues. Thus, in this paper, a new analytical tool for measuring the performances of pilgrim movements in Hajj has been developed. The application of M/M/c/K queuing models for controlling the pilgrims and the design of facilities in Hajj is discussed. The paper also used some data on the flow of pilgrims for implementing the use of M/M/c/K queuing models for the above mentioned controlling and design. The result show that, the average number of pilgrims waiting in queue almost zero, because maybe most of the pilgrims only spend least then 12 second in the system