Risk Management using Model Predictive Control

Forward planning and risk management are crucial for the success of any system or business dealing with the uncertainties of the real world. Previous approaches have largely assumed that the future will be similar to the past, or used simple forecasting techniques based on ad-hoc models. Improving solutions requires better projection of future events, and necessitates robust forward planning techniques that consider forecasting inaccuracies. This work advocates risk management through optimal control theory, and proposes several techniques to combine it with time-series forecasting. Focusing on applications in foreign exchange (FX) and battery energy storage systems (BESS), the contributions of this thesis are three-fold. First, a short-term risk management system for FX dealers is formulated as a stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) problem in which the optimal risk-cost profiles are obtained through dynamic control of the dealers’ positions on the spot market. Second, grammatical evolution (GE) is used to automate non-linear time-series model selection, validation, and forecasting. Third, a novel measure for evaluating forecasting models, as a part of the predictive model in finite horizon optimal control applications, is proposed. Using both synthetic and historical data, the proposed techniques were validated and benchmarked. It was shown that the stochastic FX risk management system exhibits better risk management on a risk-cost Pareto frontier compared to rule-based hedging strategies, with up to 44.7% lower cost for the same level of risk. Similarly, for a real-world BESS application, it was demonstrated that the GE optimised forecasting models outperformed other prediction models by at least 9%, improving the overall peak shaving capacity of the system to 57.6%

Bayesian Analysis of Transition Model for Longitudinal Ordinal Response Data: Application to Insomnia Data

In this paper, we present a Bayesian framework for analyzing longitudinal ordinal response data. In analyzing longitudinal data, the possibility of correlations between responses given by the same individual needs to be taken into account. Various models can be used to handle such correlations such as marginal modeling, random effect modeling and transition (Markov) modeling. Here a transition modeling is used and a Bayesian approach is presented for analyzing longitudinal data. A cumulative logistic regression model and the Bayesian method, using MCMC, are implemented for obtaining the parameters estimates. Our approach is applied on a two-period longitudinal Insomnia data where the Bayesian estimate for measure of association, , between the initial and follow-up ordinal responses is obtained in each level of a treatment variable. Then, the sensitivity of posterior summaries to changes of prior hyperparameters is investigated. We also use Bayes factor criterion for testing some important hypotheses

Effect of lidocaine on duration of seizure and hemodynamic alterations in electroconvulsive therapy

Background and Objective: Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is one of the most common methods in treatment of different types of psychological disorder. The effectiveness of this therapy has a direct relation with the duration of convulsion. This study was conducted to assess the effect of lidocaine on duration of seizure and hemodynamic alterations in electroconvulsive therapy. Materials and Methods: This clinical trial study was conducted on 72 ASA-I, II patients with psychotic disorders in Hajar Medical Center in Shahrekord, Iran during 2010. The patients randomly divided into intervention and control group. The interventional group was received 1.5 mg/kg lidocaine and controls were received normal saline. For induction of anesthesia, all patients were received Sodium Thiopental (2mg/kg), Succinylcholine (1mg/kg) and Atropine (0.5mg) Propofol and Succinylcholine during 72 sessions of ECT. Duration of objective convulsion and hemodynamic alterations including blood pressure and heart rate were recorded (before, immediately and 3, 5 minutes after ECT). Data were analyzed using SPSS-11.5 and t-test. Results: Systolic and diastolic blood pressures and heart rate in 3rd minutes in interventional group following electroconvulsive therapy were 143.38±16 mmHg, 79.86±6.7 mmHg, 91.9±9.9 mmHg, respectively and in controls were 128.88±13.04 mmHg, 87.63±5.79 mmHg and 102.86±13 mmHg, respectively. These difference were significant (P<0.05). The above-mentioned indices for 5th minutes in intervention and controls were as follow: systolic (113.47±9.97 mmHg, 122.36±13 mmHg), diastolic (73.47±4.27 mmHg, 77.63±6.26 mmHg) heart rate (84.41±4.6 in minute, 93.19±12.53 in minute). These differences in above indices were significant (P<0.05). Conclusion: This study showed that lidocaine administration during electroconvulsive therapy increase the duration of convulsion and reduces heart rate and blood pressur

Evaluation of cranberry juice on bacteriuria and pyuria in spinal cord injured patient with neurogenic bladder

Background & aim: Urinary tract infections (UTIs) are the most common medical complication experienced by individuals living with SCI . Several factors are responsible for the high prevalence of UTIs in individual with SCI. Concerns regarding the overuse of antibiotics in individuals with SCI and emerge multi-drug-resistant bacteria , has prompted consideration for consumer –directed alternatives to improve urinary tract health. This study was designed to evaluation of cranberry juice on bacteriuria and pyuria and in spinal cord injured patients with neurogenic bladder in Shahrekord, Iran. Methods: This study was randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial .60 patients (51 male and 9 female) with creatinine levels below 1.5 mg/dl and in the analysis of their urine white blood cell (WBC) counts were greater than 10 in a high-powered field (pyuria) or with a presence of bacteriuria (>= 104 cc/ml) in their urine culture selected in this study. Urine analysis and culture were carried out at before and after intervention.Samples was divided into two two groups of 30.The case patients were given a dose of 250 to 300 ml of cranberry juice cocktail with 30% concentration, daily with meals.The control group was fed the same amount of a placebo cocktail.After two weeks, first morning urine analysis and culture test were done.Data collected and analyzed using K-squared method using the SPSS software and Paired-T test technique. Results: Urine analysis and culture before and after interventions show , Urinary PH in case and control groups did not any significant statistical difference before and after intervention (P>0.05). A change in pyuria and bacteriuria levels in case patients was observed after the treatment which was statistically significant (P95٪). Conclusion: Consumption of cranberries can be effective in treating SCI patients with UTI under certain conditions. The effectiveness was most profound in patients with normal GFR who did not use urinary catheter for urination. The effectiveness was especially seen in short term reduction of pyuria and bacteriuria levels and in reduction of foul-smelling of patient's urine

Complete genome sequence of oyster isolate Vibrio vulnificus Env1

© 2018 Noorian et al. Vibrio vulnificus, a ubiquitous inhabitant of coastal marine environments, has been isolated from a variety of sources. It is an opportunistic pathogen of both marine animals and humans. Here, the genome sequence of V. vulnificus Env1, an environmental isolate resistant to predation by the ciliate Tetrahymena pyriformis, is reported

The application level of the infection control methods in the operation wards of Shahrekord university hospitals compared to the standards in 2005

Background and aim: Nosocomial infection is an important health problem. The operation rooms of the hospitals are potentially favorite places for distribution of these diseases. It is now known that using standard control methods could prevent the infections. The aim of this study was to find the application level of these methods in Shahrekord universitiy hospitals and to compare them with the present standards methods. Method: This descriptive analytical study was performed in three operation wards including 7 operation rooms. Data was collected using a questionnaire consisted of 54 questions about facilities and equipments, 8 questions about personnel practice related to infection control, 12 questions about individual hygiene and scrub methods, 8 questions about disinfection and sterilization and 7 questions about using preventive measures. The data was analyzed using t test. Results: The findings showed that application of disinfecting and sterilizing methods (93.75%), individual health, scrub methods (79.2%), and the patient admission process (84%) were poor. Conclusion: In conclusion, the operation wards have to be reviewed and supervised regularly for personnel, equipments, buildings, and training of the personnel to use disinfection control methods

Pharmacutical effects of ephedrine, atropine and mucosal phenilephrin on hemodynamic alterations of women during spinal anesthesia in cesarean section

Background and Objective: Hemodynamic alteration and hypotension due to spinal anesthesia can reduce tissue perfusion and increase ischemic risk, myocardial infraction, renal failures spinal damages and even deep veins thrombosis. This study was designed to compare pharmaceutical effects of ephedrine, atropine and mucosal phenilephrin on hemodynamic alteration of women during spinal anesthesia in cesarean section. Materials and Methods: This randomized clinical and double blind study was done on 90 singleton pregnant women with ASA I and II class .the subjects gone elective cesarean section and allocated into three groups. subjects were received 500 ml ringer lactate before spinal anesthesia. Subjects in group I, II and III first received 0.1 mg/kg atropine (IV) 0.01mg/kg ephedrine and 100µgr phenilephrin (mucosal) prior spinal anesthesia, respectively. Hemodaynamic indexes including blood pressure, heart Rate, oxygen saturation and drug side effects were determined every 5 minutes interval through the surgery. Data was analyzed by using SPSS-11.5, Chi-Square and ANOVA tests. Results: Hemodaynamic indexes were changed during study, but three medicine showed similar effect on heart Rate, blood pressure and changes of oxygen saturation (P<0.05). There was a significant differences among three groups for dosage of extra ephedrine to control of blood pressure (P<0.05). This increase dosage of extra ephedrine was 56.7%,20% and in ephedrine, phenilephrin and atropine groups,respectively. Nosia rate was 6.7%, 50% and 46.7% in phenilephrin, atropine and ephedrine groups, respectively (P<0.05). Conclusion: This study showed that to prevent of blood pressure drop following spinal anestasia atropine, phenilephrin and ephedrine can be prescribed, but ephedrine is recommended for lowering the rate of nosi

Van aardse liefde naar Goddelijke Liefde: De concubine en de koning

Rumi’s verhaal ‘De concubine en de koning’ is vreselijk populair. Volgens Zhinia Noorian wilde Rumi de lezer het belang van geduld in de zoektocht naar pure liefde laten inzien. Hoewel pure liefde, oftewel de Goddelijke Liefde, niet snel gewonnen kan worden, zal die altijd langer voortduren dan de aardse kortstondige liefdes

Comparing the Efficacy and Adverse Effects of Tramadol and Sodum Diclofenac with pethedine in the Treatment of Renal Colic

Abstract Background & aim: One of the choice treatments for pain relief in acute renal colic is administration of narcotics, but always the need for low-dose effects are felt difficulties. The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy of sodium diclofenac and pethedine hydrochloride with Tramadol to reduce the pain of acute renal colic. Methods: In this clinical trial study, 150 patients (15-65 years) with acute renal colic referred to Kashani hospital in Shahrekord were selected. The patients were randomly divided into 3 groups. The first ..