Hybrid agent-based and social force simulation for modelling human evacuation egress

Simulation has become one of the popular techniques to model evacuation scenarios. Simulation is used as an instrumental for examining human movement during both normal and emergencies such as evacuation. During an evacuation, people will be in a panic situation and egress behaviour that will find the way out from a dangerous place to a safe place. Two well-known techniques in simulation that can incorporate human behaviour inside the simulation models are Agent-Based Simulation and Social Force Simulation. ABS is using the concept of a multi-agent system that consists of decentralized agents which can be autonomous, responsive and proactive. Meanwhile, SFS is a physical force to drive humans dynamically to perform egress actions and human self-organised behaviour in a group. However, the main issue in modelling both ABS or SFS alone is due to their characteristic as ABS have difficulty in modelling the force element and collective behaviours while SFS does not focus on free movements during the evacuation. This behaviour was due to the structure of humans (agents) inside ABS is decentralized which resulting collision among agents and the desired formation of evacuation was not achieved. On the other hand, in a single SFS model, the human was not proactive in finding the way out which was not reflecting the actual behaviour of humans during the evacuation. Both ABS and SFS are potential techniques to be combined due to their characteristics of self-learning and free movement in ABS and self organization in SFS. The research methodology based on modelling and simulation (M&S) life-cycle has been utilized for this work; consists of three main phases, namely preliminary study, model development and validation and verification and finally the experimentation and the results analysis. The M&S life-cycle was utilized aligned with the research aim which is to investigate the performance of the combined ABS and SFS in modelling the egress behaviour during evacuation. To achieve the aim, five evacuation factors have been chosen namely obstacles, the number of exits, exit width, triggered alarm time, and the number of people that have been the most chosen factors in the literature review. Next, three simulation models (using techniques: SFS, ABS and hybrid ABS/SFS) have been developed, verified, and validated based on the real case study data. Various simulation scenarios that will influence the human evacuation movement based on the evacuation factors were modelled and analysed. The simulation results were compared based on the chosen performance measurement parameters (PMP): evacuation time, velocity, flow rate, density and simulation time (model execution time). The simulation results analysis revealed that SFS, ABS, and hybrid ABS/ SFS were found suitable to model evacuation egress (EE) based on the reported PMP. The smallest standard error (SSE) values reported 66% for hybrid ABS/ SFS, 17% for ABS and 17% for SFS where the highest percentage of SSE indicated the most accurate. Based on the experiment results, the hybrid ABS/ SFS revealed a better performance with high effectiveness and accuracy in the simulation model behaviour when modelling various evacuation egress scenarios compared to single ABS and SFS. Thus, hybrid ABS/ SFS was found the most appropriate technique for modelling EE as agents in the hybrid technique were communicating to each other by forming a decentralised control for smooth and safe EE movement. In addition, the impactful factors that affected the result accuracy were exits, the exit width (size), the obstacle and the number of people. Conclusively, this thesis contributed the hybrid ABS/ SFS model for modelling human behaviour during evacuation in a closed area such as an office building to the body of knowledge. Hence, this research was found significant to assist the practitioners and researchers to study the closer representation of human EE behaviour by considering the hybrid ABS/SFS model and the impactful factors of evacuation

An analytical approach on parametric estimation of cure fraction based on weibull distribution using interval censored data.

In this article, we consider the Bounded Cumulative Hazard (BCH) model that is more appropriate than mixture cure model in case of cancer clinical trials when the population of interest contains long-term survivors or cured. We propose this cure rate model based on the Weibull distribution with interval censored data. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method is proposed to estimate the parameters within the framework of expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, Newton Raphson method also employed. The analysis showed that the cure fraction cannot be obtained analytically, but may be obtained from the numerical solution of the estimated equations. A simulation study is also provided for assessing the efficiency of the proposed estimation procedure

Semiparametric binary model for clustered survival data

This paper considers a method to analyze semiparametric binary models for clustered survival data when the responses are correlated. We extend parametric generalized estimating equation (GEE) to semiparametric GEE by introducing smoothing spline into the model. A backfitting algorithm is used in the derivation of the estimating equation for the parametric and nonparametric components of a semiparametric binary covariate model. The properties of the estimates for both are evaluated using simulation studies. We investigated the effects of the strength of cluster correlation and censoring rates on properties of the parameters estimate. The effect of the number of clusters and cluster size are also discussed. Results show that the GEE-SS are consistent and efficient for parametric component and nonparametric component of semiparametric binary covariates

Non-mixture cure model for interval censored data: a simulation study

With the ongoing advance in the medical sciences, we may quite often encounter data sets where some patients have been cured from disease. Standard survival models are usually not appropriate for modeling such data because they simply do not take into account the possibility of cure. In this article, a non-mixture cure model is proposed based on lognormal distribution when the exact time of the event of disease is subject to interval censoring. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method is implemented to estimate the parameters and a simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the estimators under various conditions. The study results demonstrate that the bias, standard error, and root mean squared error values of the parameters estimates decrease with the increase in sample size and that the estimation method is more robust for data sets that have low censoring rates

Rank-based inference for the accelerated failure time model in the presence of interval censored data

Semiparametric analysis and rank-based inference for the accelerated failure time model are complicated in the presence of interval censored data. The main difficulty with the existing rank-based methods is that they involve estimating functions with the possibility of multiple roots. In this paper a class of asymptotically normal rank estimators is developed which can be aquired via linear programming for estimating the parameters of the model, and a two-step iterative algorithm is introduce for solving the estimating equations. The proposed inference procedures are assessed through a real example

Turnbull versus Kaplan-Meier estimators of cure rate estimation using interval censored data

This study deals with the analysis of the cure rate estimation based on the Bounded Cumulative Hazard (BCH) model using interval censored data, given that the exact distribution of the data set is unknown. Thus, the non-parametric estimation methods are employed by means of the EM algorithm. The Turnbull and Kaplan Meier estimators were proposed to estimate the survival function, even though the Kaplan Meier estimator faces some restrictions in term of interval survival data. A comparison of the cure rate estimation based on the two estimators was done through a simulation study

A stochastic joint model for longitudinal and survival data with cure patients

Many medical investigations generate both repeatedly-measured (longitudinal) biomarker and survival data. One of complex issues arises when investigating the association between longitudinal and time-to-event data when there are cured patients in the population, which leads to a plateau in the survival function S(t) after sufficient follow-up. Thus, usual Cox proportional hazard model Cox (1972) is not applicable since the proportional hazard assumption is violated. An alternative is to consider survival models incorporating a cure fraction. In this paper we present a new class of joint model for univariate longitudinal and survival data in presence of cure fraction. For the longitudinal model, a stochastic Integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process will be presented. For the survival model a semiparametric survival function will be considered which accommodate both zero and non-zero cure fractions of the dynamic disease progression. Moreover, we consider a Bayesian approach which is motivated by the complexity of the model. Posterior and prior specification needs to accommodate parameter constraints due to the nonnegativity of the survival function. A simulation study is presented to evaluate the performance of this joint model

A Semiparametric Joint Model for Longitudinal and Time-to- Event Univariate Data in Presence of Cure Fraction

Many medical investigations generate both repeatedly-measured (longitudinal)biomarker and survival data. One of complex issue arises when investigating the association between longitudinal and time-to-event data when there are cured patients in the population, which leads to a plateau in the survival function S(t) after sufficient follow-up. Thus, usual Cox proportional hazard model Cox (1972) is not applicable since the proportional hazard assumption is violated. An alternative is to consider survival models incorporating a cure fraction. In this paper we present a new class of joint model for univariate longitudinal and survival data in presence of cure fraction. For the longitudinal model, a stochastic Integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process will present, and for the survival model a semiparametric survival function will be considered which accommodate both zero and non-zero cure fractions of the dynamic disease progression. Moreover, we consider a Bayesian approach which is motivated by the complexity of the model. Posterior and prior specification needs to accommodate parameter constraints due to the nonnegativity of the survival function. A simulation study is presented to evaluate the performance of this joint model

Cure fraction, modelling and estimating in a population-based cancer survival analysis

In population-based cancer studies, cure is said to occur when the mortality (hazard)rate in the diseased group of individuals returns to the same level as that expected in the general population. The optimal method for monitoring the progress of patient care across the full spectrum of provider settings is through the population-based study of cancer patient survival, which is only possible using data collected by population-based cancer registries. The probability of cure, statistical cure, is defined for a cohort of cancer patients as the percent of patients whose annual death rate equals the death rate of general cancer-free population. Recently models have been introduced, so called cure fraction models, that estimates the cure fraction as well as the survival time distribution for those uncured. The colorectal cancer survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program, USA, is used. The aim is to evaluate the cure fraction models and compare these methods to other methods used to monitor time trends in cancer patient survival, and to highlight some problems using these models

Bayesian approach for joint longitudinal and time-to-event data with survival fraction

Many medical investigations generate both repeatedly-measured(longitudinal) biomarker and survival data. One of complex issue arises when investigating the association between longitudinal and time-to-event data when there are cured patients in the population, which leads to a plateau in the survival function S(t) after sufficient follow-up. Thus, usual Cox proportional hazard model [11] is not applicable since the proportional hazard assumption is violated. An alternative is to consider survival models incorporating a cure fraction. In this paper, we present a new class of joint model for univariate longitudinal and survival data in presence of cure fraction. For the longitudinal model, a stochastic Integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process will present, and for the survival model a semiparametric survival function will be considered which accommodate both zero and non-zero cure fractions of the dynamic disease progression. Moreover, we consider a Bayesian approach which is motivated by the complexity of the model. Posterior and prior specification needs to accommodate parameter constraints due to the non-negativity of the survival function. A simulation study is presented to evaluate the performance of the proposed joint model