Homogenisation and analysis of an expanded long-term monthly rainfall network for the Island of Ireland (1850-2010)

Long-term precipitation series are critical for understanding emerging changes to the hydrological cycle. To this end we construct a homogenised Island of Ireland Precipitation (IIP) network comprising 25 stations and a composite series covering the period 1850-2010, providing the second- longest regional precipitation archive in the British-Irish Isles. We expand the existing catalogue of long-term precipitation records for the island by recovering archived data for an additional eight stations. Following bridging and updating of stations HOMER homogenisation software is used to detect breaks using pairwise and joint detection. Twenty-five breakpoints are detected across 14 stations, and the majority (20) are corroborated by metadata. Assessment of variability and change in homogenised and extended precipitation records reveal positive (winter) and negative (summer) trends. Trends in records covering the typical period of digitisation (1941 onwards) are not always representative of longer records. Furthermore, trends in post-homogenisation series change magnitude and even direction at some stations. While cautionary flags are raised for some series, confidence in the derived network is high given attention paid to metadata, coherence of behaviour across the network and consistency of findings with other long-term climatic series such as England and Wales precipitation. As far as we are aware, this work represents the first application of HOMER to a long- term precipitation network and bodes well for use in other regions. It is expected that the homogenised IIP network will find wider utility in benchmarking and supporting climate services across the Island of Ireland, a sentinel location in the North Atlantic

Response to: "Renal biopsies should be performed whenever treatment strategies depend on renal involvement"

We thank Chemouny et al for their letter and concur with their conclusions. As we state (1): “A positive biopsy for AAV is helpful when considering an initial diagnosis or recurrent disease.” In our view, renal biopsy is important to establish diagnosis and may also provide an indication of prognostic trajectory and although existing classification systems need further validation, changes like glomerular sclerosis have obvious adverse prognostic value for patients with AAV (2-4). The Delphi process, for the scope of the current recommendations, identified the role of biopsy at both diagnosis and follow-up as an important item for update. Histopathological evidence of vasculitis, such as pauci-immune glomerulonephritis or necrotising vasculitis in any organ, remains the gold standard for diagnostic purposes. The likely diagnostic yield varies and is dependent on the organ targeted and in patients with GPA with renal involvement can be as high as 91.5% from renal biopsy (5). As Chemouny and colleagues have demonstrated, a renal biopsy was definitive in determining their management decisions. However during follow-up when relapses occur, it may be prudent to consider judicious use of further kidney biopsy during suspected renal relapse since the cause for acute kidney injury may be due to another cause other than AAV (6). Kind regards, M Yates, C Mukhtyar and DR Jayne on behalf of co-authors

An examination of the precipitation delivery mechanisms for Dolleman Island, eastern Antarctic Peninsula

Copyright @ 2004 Wiley-BlackwellThe variability of size and source of significant precipitation events were studied at an Antarctic ice core drilling site: Dolleman Island (DI), located on the eastern coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. Significant precipitation events that occur at DI were temporally located in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) reanalysis data set, ERA-40. The annual and summer precipitation totals from ERA-40 at DI both show significant increases over the reanalysis period. Three-dimensional backwards air parcel trajectories were then run for 5 d using the ECMWF ERA-15 wind fields. Cluster analyses were performed on two sets of these backwards trajectories: all days in the range 1979–1992 (the climatological time-scale) and a subset of days when a significant precipitation event occurred. The principal air mass sources and delivery mechanisms were found to be the Weddell Sea via lee cyclogenesis, the South Atlantic when there was a weak circumpolar trough (CPT) and the South Pacific when the CPT was deep. The occurrence of precipitation bearing air masses arriving via a strong CPT was found to have a significant correlation with the southern annular mode (SAM); however, the arrival of air masses from the same region over the climatological time-scale showed no such correlation. Despite the dominance in both groups of back trajectories of the westerly circulation around Antarctica, some other key patterns were identified. Most notably there was a higher frequency of lee cyclogenesis events in the significant precipitation trajectories compared to the climatological time-scale. There was also a tendency for precipitation trajectories to come from more northerly latitudes, mostly from 50–70°S. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found to have a strong influence on the mechanism by which the precipitation was delivered; the frequency of occurrence of precipitation from the east (west) of DI increased during El Niño (La Niña) events

Arctic system on trajectory to new state

The Arctic system is moving toward a new state that falls outside the envelope of glacial-interglacial fluctuations that prevailed during recent Earth history. This future Arctic is likely to have dramatically less permanent ice than exists at present. At the present rate of change, a summer ice-free Arctic Ocean within a century is a real possibility, a state not witnessed for at least a million years. The change appears to be driven largely by feedback-enhanced global climate warming, and there seem to be few, if any processes or feedbacks within the Arctic system that are capable of altering the trajectory toward this “super interglacial” state

Profiles of CH_4, HDO, H_2O, and N_2O with improved lower tropospheric vertical resolution from Aura TES radiances

Thermal infrared (IR) radiances measured near 8 microns contain information about the vertical distribution of water vapor (H_2O), the water isotopologue HDO, and methane (CH_4), key gases in the water and carbon cycles. Previous versions (Version 4 or less) of the TES profile retrieval algorithm used a "spectral-window" approach to minimize uncertainty from interfering species at the expense of reduced vertical resolution and sensitivity. In this manuscript we document changes to the vertical resolution and uncertainties of the TES version 5 retrieval algorithm. In this version (Version 5), joint estimates of H_2O, HDO, CH_4 and nitrous oxide (N_2O) are made using radiances from almost the entire spectral region between 1100 cm^(−1) and 1330 cm^(−1). The TES retrieval constraints are also modified in order to better use this information. The new H_2O estimates show improved vertical resolution in the lower troposphere and boundary layer, while the new HDO/H_2O estimates can now profile the HDO/H_2O ratio between 925 hPa and 450 hPa in the tropics and during summertime at high latitudes. The new retrievals are now sensitive to methane in the free troposphere between 800 and 150 mb with peak sensitivity near 500 hPa; whereas in previous versions the sensitivity peaked at 200 hPa. However, the upper troposphere methane concentrations are biased high relative to the lower troposphere by approximately 4% on average. This bias is likely related to temperature, calibration, and/or methane spectroscopy errors. This bias can be mitigated by normalizing the CH_4 estimate by the ratio of the N_2O estimate relative to the N_2O prior, under the assumption that the same systematic error affects both the N_2O and CH_4 estimates. We demonstrate that applying this ratio theoretically reduces the CH4 estimate for non-retrieved parameters that jointly affect both the N_2O and CH_4 estimates. The relative upper troposphere to lower troposphere bias is approximately 2.8% after this bias correction. Quality flags based upon the vertical variability of the methane and N_2O estimates can be used to reduce this bias further. While these new CH_4, HDO/H_2O, and H_2O estimates are consistent with previous TES retrievals in the altitude regions where the sensitivities overlap, future comparisons with independent profile measurement will be required to characterize the biases of these new retrievals and determine if the calculated uncertainties using the new constraints are consistent with actual uncertainties

A mathematical framework for analysis of water tracers: Part 1: Development of theory and application to the preindustrial mean state

A new matrix operator framework is developed to analyze results from climate modeling studies that employ numerical water tracers (WTs), which track the movement of water in the aerial hydrological cycle from evaporation to precipitation. Model WT output is related to the fundamental equation of hydrology, and the moisture flux divergence is subdivided into the divergence of locally evaporated moisture and the convergence of remotely evaporated moisture. The formulation also separates locally and remotely sourced precipitation. The remote contribution (also the remote moisture convergence) may be further subdivided into zonal, meridional, intrabasin, and interbasin parts. This framework is applied to the preindustrial climate as simulated by a global climate model in which water has been tagged in 10° latitude bands in each of the major ocean basins, and in which each major land mass has been tagged separately. New insights from the method reveal fundamental differences between the major ocean basins in locally sourced precipitation, remotely sourced precipitation, and their relative partitioning. Per unit area, the subtropical Atlantic is the largest global moisture source, providing precipitable water to adjacent land areas and to the eastern Pacific tropics while retaining the least for in situ precipitation. Subtropical moisture is least divergent over the Pacific, which is the smallest moisture source (per unit area) for global land areas. Basins also differ in how subtropical moisture is partitioned between tropical, midlatitude, and land regions. Part II will apply this framework to hydrological cycle perturbations due to CO₂ doubling.Keywords: linear algebra, numerical water tracers, hydrologic cycle, big data analysis, matrix operatorKeywords: linear algebra, numerical water tracers, hydrologic cycle, big data analysis, matrix operato

The Connected Isotopic Water Cycle in the Community Earth System Model Version 1

Because of the pervasive role of water in the Earth system, the relative abundances of stable isotopologues of water are valuable for understanding atmospheric, oceanic, and biospheric processes, and for interpreting paleoclimate proxy reconstructions. Isotopologues are transported by both largeâ scale and turbulent flows, and the ratio of heavy to light isotopologues changes due to fractionation that can accompany condensation and evaporation processes. Correctly predicting the isotopic distributions requires resolving the relationships between largeâ scale ocean and atmospheric circulation and smallerâ scale hydrological processes, which can be accomplished within a coupled climate modeling framework. Here we present the water isotopeâ enabled version of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (iCESM1), which simulates global variations in water isotopic ratios in the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice. In a transient Last Millennium simulation covering the 850â 2005 period, iCESM1 correctly captures the lateâ twentiethâ century structure of δ18O and δD over the global oceans, with more limited accuracy over land. The relationship between salinity and seawater δ18O is also well represented over the observational period, including interbasin variations. We illustrate the utility of coupled, isotopeâ enabled simulations using both Last Millennium simulations and freshwater hosing experiments with iCESM1. Closing the isotopic mass balance between all components of the coupled model provides new confidence in the underlying depiction of the water cycle in CESM, while also highlighting areas where the underlying hydrologic balance can be improved. The iCESM1 is poised to be a vital community resource for ongoing model development with both modern and paleoclimate applications.Key PointsAn isotopeâ enabled version of the Community Earth System Model (iCESM1) is now publicly availableiCESM1 simulates the major observed features of δ18O and δD over the late twentieth centuryiCESM1 is useful for both modern climate and paleoclimate applicationsPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151857/1/jame20931.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151857/2/jame20931_am.pd

A preliminary investigation of schematic beliefs and unusual experiences in children

Background In cognitive models of adult psychosis, schematic beliefs about the self and others are important vulnerability and maintaining factors, and are therefore targets for psychological interventions. Schematic beliefs have not previously been investigated in children with distressing unusual, or psychotic-like, experiences (UEDs). The aim of this study was firstly to investigate whether a measure of schematic beliefs, originally designed for adults with psychosis, was suitable for children; and secondly, to examine the association of childhood schematic beliefs with internalising and externalising problems and with UEDs. Method Sixty-seven children aged 8–14 years, with emotional and behavioural difficulties, completed measures of UEDs, internalising (depression and anxiety), and externalising (conduct and hyperactivity-inattention) problems, together with the Brief Core Schema Scales (BCSS). Results The BCSS was readily completed by participants, and scale psychometric properties were good. Children tended to view themselves and others positively. Internalising and externalising problems and UEDs were all associated with negative schematic beliefs; effect sizes were small to medium. Conclusions Schematic beliefs in young people can be measured using the BCSS, and negative schematic beliefs are associated with childhood psychopathology and with UEDs. Schematic beliefs may therefore form a useful target in psychological interventions for young people with UEDs

The stability and calibration of water vapor isotope ratio measurements during long-term deployments

With the recent advent of commercial laser absorption spectrometers, field studies measuring stable isotope ratios of hydrogen and oxygen in water vapor have proliferated. These pioneering analyses have provided invaluable feedback about best strategies for optimizing instrumental accuracy, yet questions still remain about instrument performance and calibration approaches for multi-year field deployments. With clear scientific potential for using these instruments to carry out monitoring of the hydrological cycle, this study examines the long-term stability of the isotopic biases associated with three cavity-enhanced laser absorption spectrometers - calibrated with different systems and approaches - at two remote field sites: Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, USA, and Greenland Environmental Observatory, Summit, Greenland. The analysis pays particular attention to the stability of measurement dependencies on water vapor concentration and also evaluates whether these so-called concentration dependences are sensitive to statistical curve-fitting choices or measurement hysteresis. The results suggest evidence of monthly-to-seasonal concentration-dependence variability - which likely stems from low signal-to-noise at the humidity-range extremes - but no long-term directional drift. At Mauna Loa, where the isotopic analyzer is calibrated by injection of liquid water standards into a vaporizer, the largest source of inaccuracy in characterizing the concentration dependence stems from an insufficient density of calibration points at low water vapor volume mixing ratios. In comparison, at Summit, the largest source of inaccuracy is measurement hysteresis associated with interactions between the reference vapor, generated by a custom dew point generator, and the sample tubing. Nevertheless, prediction errors associated with correcting the concentration dependence are small compared to total measurement uncertainty. At both sites, changes in measurement repeatability that are not predicted by long-term linear drift estimates are a larger source of error, highlighting the importance of measuring isotopic standards with minimal or well characterized drift at regular intervals. Challenges in monitoring isotopic drift are discussed in light of the different calibration systems evaluated

The stability and calibration of water vapor isotope ratio measurements during long-term deployments

With the recent advent of commercial laser absorption spectrometers, field studies measuring stable isotope ratios of hydrogen and oxygen in water vapor have proliferated. These pioneering analyses have provided invaluable feedback about best strategies for optimizing instrumental accuracy, yet questions still remain about instrument performance and calibration approaches for multi-year field deployments. With clear scientific potential for using these instruments to carry out long-term monitoring of the hydrological cycle, this study examines the long-term stability of the isotopic biases associated with three cavity-enhanced laser absorption spectrometers – calibrated with different systems and approaches – at two remote field sites: Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, USA, and Greenland Environmental Observatory, Summit, Greenland. The analysis pays particular attention to the stability of measurement dependencies on water vapor concentration and also evaluates whether these so-called concentration-dependences are sensitive to statistical curve-fitting choices or measurement hysteresis. The results suggest evidence of monthly-to-seasonal concentration-dependence variability – which likely stems from low signal-to-noise at the humidity-range extremes – but no long-term directional drift. At Mauna Loa, where the isotopic analyzer is calibrated by injection of liquid water standards into a vaporizer, the largest source of inaccuracy in characterizing the concentration-dependence stems from an insufficient density of calibration points at low humidity. In comparison, at Greenland, the largest source of inaccuracy is measurement hysteresis associated with interactions between the reference vapor, generated by a custom dew point generator (DPG), and the sample tubing. Nevertheless, prediction errors associated with correcting the concentration-dependence are small compared to total measurement uncertainty. At both sites, a dominant source of uncertainty is instrumental precision at low humidity, which cannot be reduced by improving calibration strategies. Challenges in monitoring long-term isotopic drift are also discussed in light of the different calibration systems evaluated.The final revised paper is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/1957/5787