156 research outputs found

    Elicitability and backtesting: Perspectives for banking regulation

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    Conditional forecasts of risk measures play an important role in internal risk management of financial institutions as well as in regulatory capital calculations. In order to assess forecasting performance of a risk measurement procedure, risk measure forecasts are compared to the realized financial losses over a period of time and a statistical test of correctness of the procedure is conducted. This process is known as backtesting. Such traditional backtests are concerned with assessing some optimality property of a set of risk measure estimates. However, they are not suited to compare different risk estimation procedures. We investigate the proposal of comparative backtests, which are better suited for method comparisons on the basis of forecasting accuracy, but necessitate an elicitable risk measure. We argue that supplementing traditional backtests with comparative backtests will enhance the existing trading book regulatory framework for banks by providing the correct incentive for accuracy of risk measure forecasts. In addition, the comparative backtesting framework could be used by banks internally as well as by researchers to guide selection of forecasting methods. The discussion focuses on three risk measures, Value-at-Risk, expected shortfall and expectiles, and is supported by a simulation study and data analysis

    Anthropometric risk factors for ovarian cancer in the NIH-AARP diet and health study

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    OBJECTIVE Identifying potentially modifiable risk factors for ovarian cancer is essential for prevention because this cancer is predominantly detected at a late stage. Here, we estimated the relations of general adiposity and measures reflecting body fat distribution to the risk of epithelial ovarian cancer. METHODS We ascertained 683 ovarian epithelial cancers (343 high-grade serous, 141 non-high grade serous) among 145,575 women, aged 50-72 years (median follow-up 12.6 years), from the National Institutes of Health-American Association of Retired Persons (NIH-AARP) Diet and Health Study. Using Cox models, we estimated confounder-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations of overall ovarian cancer, high-grade serous and non-high-grade serous carcinoma with body mass index, waist circumference, hip circumference, waist-hip ratio, waist-height ratio, body adiposity index, body shape index, and abdominal volume index. RESULTS Anthropometric measures were unrelated to overall ovarian cancer, high-grade serous cancer, and non-high-grade serous cancer. For example, the HR for overall ovarian cancer per standard deviation increment of body mass index at baseline was 0.98 (95% CI 0.88-1.10). Similar associations were observed with measurements of body fat distribution. CONCLUSION These results do not indicate that adult adiposity is associated with ovarian cancer risk in post-menopausal women

    Impact of Hunger, Satiety, and Oral Glucose on the Association Between Insulin and Resting-State Human Brain Activity

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    To study the interplay of metabolic state (hungry vs. satiated) and glucose administration (including hormonal modulation) on brain function, resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) and blood samples were obtained in 24 healthy normal-weight men in a repeated measurement design. Participants were measured twice: once after a 36 h fast (except water) and once under satiation (three meals/day for 36 h). During each session, rs-fMRI and hormone concentrations were recorded before and after a 75 g oral dose of glucose. We calculated the amplitude map from blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signals by using the fractional amplitude of low-frequency fluctuation (fALFF) approach for each volunteer per condition. Using multiple linear regression analysis (MLRA) the interdependence of brain activity, plasma insulin and blood glucose was investigated. We observed a modulatory impact of fasting state on intrinsic brain activity in the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC). Strikingly, differences in plasma insulin levels between hunger and satiety states after glucose administration at the time of the scan were negatively related to brain activity in the posterior insula and superior frontal gyrus (SFG), while plasma glucose levels were positively associated with activity changes in the fusiform gyrus. Furthermore, we could show that changes in plasma insulin enhanced the connectivity between the posterior insula and SFG. Our results indicate that hormonal signals like insulin alleviate an acute hemostatic energy deficit by modifying the homeostatic and frontal circuitry of the human brain

    Impact of system factors on the water saving efficiency of household grey water recycling

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    Copyright © 2010 Taylor & Francis. This is an Author's Accepted Manuscript of an article published in Desalination and Water Treatment Volume 24, Issue 1-3 (2010), available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.5004/dwt.2010.1542A general concern when considering the implementation of domestic grey water recycling is to understand the impacts of system factors on water saving efficiency. Key factors include household occupancy, storage volumes, treatment capacity and operating mode. Earlier investigations of the impacts of these key factors were based on a one-tank system only. This paper presents the results of an investigation into the effect of these factors on the performance of a more realistic ‘two tank’ system with treatment using an object based household water cycle model. A Monte-Carlo simulation technique was adopted to generate domestic water appliance usage data which allows long-term prediction of the system's performance to be made. Model results reveal the constraints of treatment capacity, storage tank sizes and operating mode on percentage of potable water saved. A treatment capacity threshold has been discovered at which water saving efficiency is maximised for a given pair of grey and treated grey water tank. Results from the analysis suggest that the previous one-tank model significantly underestimates the tank volumes required for a given target water saving efficiency

    A Novel Putative miRNA Target Enhancer Signal

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    It is known that miRNA target sites are very short and the effect of miRNA-target site interaction alone appears as being unspecific. Recent experiments suggest further context signals involved in miRNA target site recognition and regulation. Here, we present a novel GC-rich RNA motif downstream of experimentally supported miRNA target sites in human mRNAs with no similarity to previously reported functional motifs. We demonstrate that the novel motif can be found in at least one third of all transcripts regulated by miRNAs. Furthermore, we show that motif occurrence and the frequency of miRNA target sites as well as the stability of their duplex structures correlate. The finding, that the novel motif is significantly associated with miRNA target sites, suggests a functional role of the motif in miRNA target site biology. Beyond, the novel motif has the impact to improve prediction of miRNA target sites significantly

    Urban futures and the code for sustainable homes

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    Copyright © 2012 ICE Publishing Ltd. Permission is granted by ICE Publishing to print one copy for personal use. Any other use of these PDF files is subject to reprint fees.A 6?6 ha (66 000 m2) regeneration site, commonly referred to as Luneside East, is to be turned from a run down, economically under-achieving area of Lancaster, UK, into a new, distinctive, vibrant, sustainable quarter of the city. As a result several aspects of water planning for 350 new homes and 8000 m2 of workspace needed to be considered before any infrastructure investment was undertaken. This included assessment of the future capacity requirements (i.e. inflows and outflows) for water infrastructure (i.e. mains water supply, wastewater disposal, rainwater storage and stormwater disposal) much of which will be located underground. This paper looks at the implications of various water management strategies on the Luneside East site (e.g. water-efficient appliances, greywater recycling and rainwater harvesting) in line with current policy measures that focus on technology changes alone (e.g. the code for sustainable homes). Based on these findings this paper outlines some basic implications for technological resilience discussed in the context of four ‘world views’ – that is, the urban futures scenarios considered in this special issue. Conclusions are drawn as to how far this can take engineers, planners and developers in understanding and planning for resilient water infrastructure within a development like Luneside East

    Diffusion in Model Networks as Studied by NMR and Fluorescence Correlation Spectroscopy

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    We have studied the diffusion of small solvent molecules (octane) and larger hydrophobic dye probes in octane-swollen poly(dimethyl siloxane) linear-chain solutions and end-linked model networks, using pulsed-gradient nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (FCS), respectively, focusing on diffusion in the bulk polymer up to the equilibrium degree of swelling of the networks, that is, 4.8 at most. The combination of these results allows for new conclusions on the feasibility of different theories describing probe diffusion in concentrated polymer systems. While octane diffusion shows no cross-link dependence, the larger dyes are increasingly restricted by fixed chemical meshes. The simple Fujita free-volume theory proved most feasible to describe probe diffusion in linear long-chain solutions with realistic parameters, while better fits were obtained assuming a stretched exponential dependence on concentration. Importantly, we have analyzed the cross-link specific effect on probe diffusion independently of any specific model by comparing the best-fit interpolation of the solution data with the diffusion in the networks. The most reasonable description is obtained by assuming that the cross-link effect is additive in the effective friction coefficient of the probes. The concentration dependences as well as the data compared at the equilibrium degrees of swelling indicate that swelling heterogeneities and diffusant shape have a substantial influence on small-molecule diffusion in networks.

    Comparative Analysis of mRNA Targets for Human PUF-Family Proteins Suggests Extensive Interaction with the miRNA Regulatory System

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    Genome-wide identification of mRNAs regulated by RNA-binding proteins is crucial to uncover post-transcriptional gene regulatory systems. The conserved PUF family RNA-binding proteins repress gene expression post-transcriptionally by binding to sequence elements in 3′-UTRs of mRNAs. Despite their well-studied implications for development and neurogenesis in metazoa, the mammalian PUF family members are only poorly characterized and mRNA targets are largely unknown. We have systematically identified the mRNAs associated with the two human PUF proteins, PUM1 and PUM2, by the recovery of endogenously formed ribonucleoprotein complexes and the analysis of associated RNAs with DNA microarrays. A largely overlapping set comprised of hundreds of mRNAs were reproducibly associated with the paralogous PUM proteins, many of them encoding functionally related proteins. A characteristic PUF-binding motif was highly enriched among PUM bound messages and validated with RNA pull-down experiments. Moreover, PUF motifs as well as surrounding sequences exhibit higher conservation in PUM bound messages as opposed to transcripts that were not found to be associated, suggesting that PUM function may be modulated by other factors that bind conserved elements. Strikingly, we found that PUF motifs are enriched around predicted miRNA binding sites and that high-confidence miRNA binding sites are significantly enriched in the 3′-UTRs of experimentally determined PUM1 and PUM2 targets, strongly suggesting an interaction of human PUM proteins with the miRNA regulatory system. Our work suggests extensive connections between the RBP and miRNA post-transcriptional regulatory systems and provides a framework for deciphering the molecular mechanism by which PUF proteins regulate their target mRNAs
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