Some challenges for forest fire risk predictions in the21st Century

V.R.d.D. acknowledges funding from the National Natural Science Foundation in China(U20A20179, 31850410483), the talent proposals in Sichuan Province (2020JDRC0065), from SouthwestUniversity of Science and Technology (18ZX7131), and the MICINN (RTI2018-094691-B-C31). R.H.N.was supported with funding from the New South Wales Department of Planning, Industry andEnvironment, via the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub

Physiological drought responses improve predictions of live fuel moisture dynamics in a Mediterranean forest.

The moisture content of live fuels is an important determinant of forest flammability. Current approaches for modelling live fuel moisture content typically focus on the use of drought indices. However, these have mixed success partly because of species-specific differences in drought responses. Here we seek to understand the physiological mechanisms driving changes in live fuel moisture content, and to investigate the potential for incorporating plant physiological traits into live fuel moisture models. We measured the dynamics of leaf moisture content, access to water resources (through stable isotope analyses) and physiological traits (including leaf water potential, stomatal conductance, and cellular osmotic and elastic adjustments) across a fire season in a Mediterranean mixed forest in Catalonia, NE Spain. We found that differences in both seasonal variation and minimum values of live fuel moisture content were a function of access to water resources and plant physiological traits. Specifically, those species with the lowest minimum moisture content and largest seasonal variation in moisture (Cistus albidus: 49–137% and Rosmarinus officinalis: 47–144%) were most reliant on shallow soil water and had the lowest values of predawn leaf water potential. Species with the smallest variation in live fuel moisture content (Pinus nigra: 96–116% and Quercus ilex: 56–91%) exhibited isohydric behaviour (little variation in midday leaf water potential, and relatively tight regulation of stomata in response to soil drying). Of the traits measured, predawn leaf water potential provided the strongest predictor of live fuel moisture content (R2 = 0.63, AIC = 249), outperforming two commonly used drought indices (both with R2 = 0.49, AIC = 258). This is the first study to explicitly link fuel moisture with plant physiology and our findings demonstrate the potential and importance of incorporating ecophysiological plant traits to investigating seasonal changes in fuel moisture and, more broadly, forest flammability.This study was made possible thanks to the collaboration of and the staff from the Natural Park of Poblet, P Sopeña, and the technical staff from MedForLab. This study was funded by the Spanish Government (RYC-2012-10970, AGL2015-69151-R). R. H. Nolan was supported with funding from the New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage, via the Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub. We benefitted from critical comments from J Voltas, JM Moreno and L Serrano and instrument loans from R Savín

Forests, fire and vegetation change impacts on Murray-Darling basin water resources

The Murray-Darling River system is perhaps Australia’s most important, with significant social, cultural and environmental values including 16 Ramsar listed wetlands. The MDB is home to 2.6 million people and produces about $24 billion worth in agricultural production each year (about one-third of total value for Australia). Hydrologic issues, typified by water availability and quality, have existed for many years, peaking during the Millennium drought from 1997 to 2010. Competing interests (i.e. irrigation, tourism, environmental heath), and the declining flows and water quality during droughts, led governments and water management agencies to consider the risks to water resources in the system in the early-mid 2000s. This paper reviews changes to risks associated with forest dynamics, as identified by - afforestation and bushfire–and considers new issues that have emerged since that analysis. It was found that the potential impacts of bushfire on stream flows were over-estimated in past studies, and that a planned significant afforestation expansion into agricultural and grazing land that was projected to reduce stream flows did not occur. While these two risks now do not seem likely to have significant future impacts on flows, or consequent effects on downstream users, the interaction of elevated CO2 and increasing temperatures on vegetation functioning and subsequent hydrologic consequences at catchment scale require further research and analysis. Reduced rainfall and increased temperatures under future climate change are likely to have an impact on inputs and flows. Uncertainties in how these changes, and feedbacks between climate, drought, more frequent fire and vegetation responses, impact on system hydrology also require further investigation

Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand

Levels of fire activity and severity that are unprecedented in the instrumental record have recently been observed in forested regions around the world. Using a large sample of daily fire events and hourly climate data, here we show that fire activity in all global forest biomes responds strongly and predictably to exceedance of thresholds in atmospheric water demand, as measured by maximum daily vapour pressure deficit. The climatology of vapour pressure deficit can therefore be reliably used to predict forest fire risk under projected future climates. We find that climate change is projected to lead to widespread increases in risk, with at least 30 additional days above critical thresholds for fire activity in forest biomes on every continent by 2100 under rising emissions scenarios. Escalating forest fire risk threatens catastrophic carbon losses in the Amazon and major population health impacts from wildfire smoke in south Asia and east Africa.he authors acknowledge the New South Wales Government’s Department of Planning, Industry & Environment for providing funds to support this research via the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. Some of the analysis was carried out on the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) which is supported by the Australian Commonwealth Government

Using dense Sentinel-2 time series to explore combined fire and drought impacts in eucalypt forests

Following one of the driest years on record, millions of hectares of forests in southeast Australia were burned in the 2019-20200 "Black Summer" wildfires. In addition to the areas burned, drought related canopy collapse, dieback and tree mortality was widely observed. In this paper, we present a method to map canopy damage due to drought and fire across a large area. Sentinel-2 satellite imagery was used in a monthly time series to highlight areas of forest where the Normalized Burn Ratio index was significantly below a pre-disturbance "stable" period. The stable period was defined as the 3 years prior to 2019 and the disturbance thresholds are based on bioregion specific standard deviations below pre-disturbance means. The novel methods enabled drought impacted forests to be identified, including those which were subsequently burned by wildfire. Across the 20 Mha of forests studied, 9.9 Mha (49%) fell below the disturbance threshold. Of that, 5.8 Mha was disturbed by fire and a further 4.1 Mha by drought outside of the fire extent. Within the fire extent, almost 0.9 Mha was identified as being significantly drought affected prior to being burned. An analysis of spectral recovery following substantial rainfall from February 2020 onward indicates that most of the areas impacted by both drought and fire have similar rates of recovery to those impacted only by fire. There are some areas, however, where the combined effects of the "double disturbance "appears to be hindering recovery. The methods presented here are easily transferrable and demonstrate an approach for monitoring forest disturbance at higher temporal and spatial scales than those typically used

A semi-mechanistic model for predicting daily variations in species-level live fuel moisture content

Live Fuel Moisture Content (LFMC) is one of the main factors affecting forest ignitability as it determines the availability of existing live fuel to burn. Currently, LFMC is monitored through spectral vegetation indices or inferred from meteorological drought indices. While useful, neither approach provides mechanistic insights into species-specific LFMC variation and they are limited in the ability to forecast LFMC under altered future climates. Here, we developed a semi-mechanistic model to predict daily variation in LFMC across woody species from different functional types by adjusting a soil water balance model which estimates predawn leaf water potential (Ψpd). Our overarching goal was to balance the trade-off between biological realism, which enhances model applicability, and parameterization complexity, which may limit its value within operational settings. After calibration, model predictions were validated against a dataset comprising 1659 LFMC observations across peninsular Spain, belonging to different functional types and from contrasting climates. The overall goodness of fit for our model (R2 = 0.5) was better than that obtained by an existing models based on drought indices (R2 = 0.3) or spectral vegetation indices (R2 = 0.1). We observed the best predictive performance for seeding shrubs (R2 = 0.6) followed by trees (R2 = 0.5) and resprouting shrubs (R2 = 0.4). Through its relatively simple parameterization, the approach developed here may pave the way for a new generation of process-based models that can be used for operational purposes within fire risk mitigation scenarios.This work was partly founded by the Spanish Government, grant number RTI2018-094691-B-C31 (MCIU/AEI/FEDER, EU) . R.B-R. ac-knowledges the Community of Madrid for the predoctoral contract PEJD-2019-PRE/AMB-15,644 funded by the Youth Employment Initia-tive (YEI) . M. De C. was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation via competitive grant CGL2017-89149-C2-2-R. UNED founding for open access publishing

Mulga, a major tropical dry open forest of Australia: Recent insights to carbon and water fluxes

© 2016 IOP Publishing Ltd. Mulga, comprised of a complex of closely related Acacia spp., grades from a low open forest to tall shrublands in tropical and sub-tropical arid and semi-arid regions of Australia and experiences warm-to-hot annual temperatures and a pronounced dry season. This short synthesis of current knowledge briefly outlines the causes of the extreme variability in rainfall characteristic of much of central Australia, and then discusses the patterns and drivers of variability in carbon and water fluxes of a central Australian low open Mulga forest. Variation in phenology and the impact of differences in the amount and timing of precipitation on vegetation function are then discussed. We use field observations, with particular emphasis on eddy covariance data, coupled with modelling and remote sensing products to interpret inter-seasonal and inter-annual patterns in the behaviour of this ecosystem. We show that Mulga can vary between periods of near carbon neutrality to periods of being a significant sink or source for carbon, depending on both the amount and timing of rainfall. Further, we demonstrate that Mulga contributed significantly to the 2011 global land sink anomaly, a result ascribed to the exceptional rainfall of 2010/2011. Finally, we compare and contrast the hydraulic traits of three tree species growing close to the Mulga and show how each species uses different combinations of trait strategies (for example, sapwood density, xylem vessel implosion resistance, phenological guild, access to groundwater and Huber value) to co-exist in this semi-arid environment. Understanding the inter-annual variability in functional behaviour of this important arid-zone biome and mechanisms underlying species co-existence will increase our ability to predict trajectories of carbon and water balances for future changing climates

Extreme fire weather is the major driver of severe bushfires in southeast Australia

In Australia, the proportion of forest area that burns in a typical fire season is less than for other vegetation types. However, the 2019–2020 austral spring-summer was an exception, with over four times the previous maximum area burnt in southeast Australian temperate forests. Temperate forest fires have extensive socio-economic, human health, greenhouse gas emissions, and biodiversity impacts due to high fire intensities. A robust model that identifies driving factors of forest fires and relates impact thresholds to fire activity at regional scales would help land managers and fire-fighting agencies prepare for potentially hazardous fire in Australia. Here, we developed a machine-learning diagnostic model to quantify nonlinear relationships between monthly burnt area and biophysical factors in southeast Australian forests for 2001–2020 on a 0.25° grid based on several biophysical parameters, notably fire weather and vegetation productivity. Our model explained over 80% of the variation in the burnt area. We identified that burnt area dynamics in southeast Australian forest were primarily controlled by extreme fire weather, which mainly linked to fluctuations in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), with a relatively smaller contribution from the central Pacific El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our fire diagnostic model and the non-linear relationships between burnt area and environmental covariates can provide useful guidance to decision-makers who manage preparations for an upcoming fire season, and model developers working on improved early warning systems for forest fires

Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia

The 2019/20 Black Summer bushfire disaster in southeast Australia was unprecedented: the extensive area of forest burnt, the radiative power of the fires, and the extraordinary number of fires that developed into extreme pyroconvective events were all unmatched in the historical record. Australia’s hottest and driest year on record, 2019, was characterised by exceptionally dry fuel loads that primed the landscape to burn when exposed to dangerous fire weather and ignition. The combination of climate variability and long-term climate trends generated the climate extremes experienced in 2019, and the compounding effects of two or more modes of climate variability in their fire-promoting phases (as occurred in 2019) has historically increased the chances of large forest fires occurring in southeast Australia. Palaeoclimate evidence also demonstrates that fire-promoting phases of tropical Pacific and Indian ocean variability are now unusually frequent compared with natural variability in preindustrial times. Indicators of forest fire danger in southeast Australia have already emerged outside of the range of historical experience, suggesting that projections made more than a decade ago that increases in climate-driven fire risk would be detectable by 2020, have indeed eventuated. The multiple climate change contributors to fire risk in southeast Australia, as well as the observed non-linear escalation of fire extent and intensity, raise the likelihood that fire events may continue to rapidly intensify in the future. Improving local and national adaptation measures while also pursuing ambitious global climate change mitigation efforts would provide the best strategy for limiting further increases in fire risk in southeast Australia