Social Simulations: Improving Interdisciplinary Understanding of Scientific Positioning and Validity

Because of features that appear to be inherent in many social systems, modellers face complicated and subjective choices in positioning the scientific contribution of their research. This leads to a diversity of approaches and terminology, making interdisciplinary assessment of models highly problematic. Such modellers ideally need some kind of accessible, interdisciplinary framework to better understand and assess these choices. Existing texts tend either to take a specialised metaphysical approach, or focus on more pragmatic aspects such as the simulation process or descriptive protocols for how to present such research. Without a sufficiently neutral treatment of why a particular set of methods and style of model might be chosen, these choices can become entwined with the ideological and terminological baggage of a particular discipline. This paper attempts to provide such a framework. We begin with an epistemological model, which gives a standardised view on the types of validation available to the modeller, and their impact on scientific value. This is followed by a methodological framework, presented as a taxonomy of the key dimensions over which approaches are ultimately divided. Rather than working top-down from philosophical principles, we characterise the issues as a practitioner would see them. We believe that such a characterisation can be done 'well enough', where 'well enough' represents a common frame of reference for all modellers, which nevertheless respects the essence of the debate's subtleties and can be accepted as such by a majority of 'methodologists'. We conclude by discussing the limitations of such an approach, and potential further work for such a framework to be absorbed into existing, descriptive protocols and general social simulation texts.Social Simulation, Methodology, Epistemology, Ideology, Validation

Junior staffing changes and the temporal ecology of adverse incidents in acute psychiatric wards

Aim.  This paper reports an examination of the relationship between adverse incident rates, the arrival of new junior staff on wards, and days of the week on acute psychiatric wards. Background.  Incidents of violence, absconding and self-harm in acute inpatient services pose risks to patients and staff. Previous research suggests that the arrival of inexperienced new staff may trigger more adverse incidents. Findings on the relationship between incidents and the weekly routine are inconsistent. Method.  A retrospective analysis was conducted of formally reported incident rates, records of nursing student allocations and junior doctor rotation patterns, using Poisson Regression. Variance between days of the week was explored using contingency table analysis. The data covered 30 months on 17 psychiatric wards, and were collected in 2002–2004. Findings.  The arrival of new and inexperienced staff on the wards was not associated with increases in adverse incident rates. Most types of incidents were less frequent at weekends and midweek. Incident rates were unchanged on ward-round days, but increased rates were found on the days before and after ward rounds. Conclusion.  Increased patient tension is associated with raised incident rates. It may be possible to reduce incident rates by moderating stimulation in the environment and by mobilizing support for patients during critical periods

How the west was once: vegetation change in south-west Queensland from 1930 to 1995

Conflicting perceptions of past and present rangeland condition and limited historical data have led to debate regarding the management of vegetation in pastoral landscapes both internationally and in Australia. In light of this controversy we have sought to provide empirical evidence to determine the trajectory of vegetational change in a semi-arid rangeland for a significant portion of the 20th century using a suite of proxy measures. Ambathala Station, approximately 780 km west of Brisbane, in the semi-arid rangelands of south-western Queensland, Australia. We excavated stratified deposits of sheep manure which had accumulated beneath a shearing shed between the years 1930 and 1995. Multi-proxy data, including pollen and leaf cuticle analyses and analysis of historical aerial photography were coupled with a fine resolution radiocarbon chronology to generate a near annual history of vegetation on the property and local area. Aerial photography indicates that minor (< 5%) increases in the density of woody vegetation took place between 1951 and 1994 in two thirds of the study area not subjected to clearing. Areas that were selectively or entirely cleared prior to the 1950s (approximately 16% of the study area) had recovered to almost 60% of their original cover by the 1994 photo period. This slight thickening is only partially evident from pollen and leaf cuticle analyses of sheep faeces. Very little change in vegetation is revealed over the nearly 65 years based on the relative abundances of pollen taxonomic groups. Microhistological examination of sheep faeces provides evidence of dramatic changes in sheep diet. The majority of dietary changes are associated with climatic events of sustained above-average rainfall or persistent drought. Most notable in the dietary analysis is the absence of grass during the first two decades of the record. In contrast to prevailing perceptions and limited research into long-term vegetation change in the semi-arid areas of eastern Australia, the record of vegetation change at the Ambathala shearing shed indicates only a minor increase in woody vegetation cover and no decrease in grass cover on the property over the 65 years of pastoral activity covered by the study. However, there are marked changes in the abundance of grass cuticles in sheep faeces. The appearance and persistence of grass in sheep diets from the late 1940s can be attributed to the effects of periods of high rainfall and possibly some clearing and thinning of vegetation. Lower stock numbers may have allowed grass to persist through later drought years. The relative abundances of major groups of plant pollen have not changed significantly over the past 65 years

The Sudbury Neutrino Observatory

The Sudbury Neutrino Observatory is a second generation water Cherenkov detector designed to determine whether the currently observed solar neutrino deficit is a result of neutrino oscillations. The detector is unique in its use of D2O as a detection medium, permitting it to make a solar model-independent test of the neutrino oscillation hypothesis by comparison of the charged- and neutral-current interaction rates. In this paper the physical properties, construction, and preliminary operation of the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory are described. Data and predicted operating parameters are provided whenever possible.Comment: 58 pages, 12 figures, submitted to Nucl. Inst. Meth. Uses elsart and epsf style files. For additional information about SNO see http://www.sno.phy.queensu.ca . This version has some new reference

Measurement of the νe and total 8B solar neutrino fluxes with the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory phase-III data set

This paper details the solar neutrino analysis of the 385.17-day phase-III data set acquired by the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory (SNO). An array of 3He proportional counters was installed in the heavy-water target to measure precisely the rate of neutrino-deuteron neutral-current interactions. This technique to determine the total active 8B solar neutrino flux was largely independent of the methods employed in previous phases. The total flux of active neutrinos was measured to be 5.54-0.31+0.33(stat.)-0.34+0.36(syst.)×106 cm-2 s-1, consistent with previous measurements and standard solar models. A global analysis of solar and reactor neutrino mixing parameters yielded the best-fit values of Δm2=7.59-0.21+0.19×10 -5eV2 and θ=34.4-1.2+1.3degrees

Factors Associated with Revision Surgery after Internal Fixation of Hip Fractures

Background: Femoral neck fractures are associated with high rates of revision surgery after management with internal fixation. Using data from the Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trial evaluating methods of internal fixation in patients with femoral neck fractures, we investigated associations between baseline and surgical factors and the need for revision surgery to promote healing, relieve pain, treat infection or improve function over 24 months postsurgery. Additionally, we investigated factors associated with (1) hardware removal and (2) implant exchange from cancellous screws (CS) or sliding hip screw (SHS) to total hip arthroplasty, hemiarthroplasty, or another internal fixation device. Methods: We identified 15 potential factors a priori that may be associated with revision surgery, 7 with hardware removal, and 14 with implant exchange. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses in our investigation. Results: Factors associated with increased risk of revision surgery included: female sex, [hazard ratio (HR) 1.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25-2.50; P = 0.001], higher body mass index (fo