The optimal timing of unemployment benefits: theory and evidence from Sweden

This paper provides a simple, yet robust framework to evaluate the time profile of benefits paid during an unemployment spell. We derive sufficient-statistics formulae capturing the marginal insurance value and incentive costs of unemployment benefits paid at different times during a spell. Our approach allows us to revisit separate arguments for inclining or declining profiles put forward in the theoretical literature and to identify welfare-improving changes in the benefit profile that account for all relevant arguments jointly. For the empirical implementation, we use administrative data on unemployment, linked to data on consumption, income, and wealth in Sweden. First, we exploit duration-dependent kinks in the replacement rate and find that, if anything, the moral hazard cost of benefits is larger when paid earlier in the spell. Second, we find that the drop in consumption affecting the insurance value of benefits is large from the start of the spell, but further increases throughout the spell. In trading off insurance and incentives, our analysis suggests that the at benefit profile in Sweden has been too generous overall. However, both from the insurance and the incentives side, we find no evidence to support the introduction of a declining tilt in the profile

Increased androgen receptor expression in serous carcinoma of the ovary is associated with an improved survival

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Altered androgen hormone homeostasis and androgen receptor (AR) activity have been implicated in ovarian carcinogenesis but the relationship between AR expression in ovarian cancer and clinical outcome remains unclear.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this study, the prognostic impact of AR expression was investigated using immunohistochemistry in tissue microarrays from 154 incident cases of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) in the prospective, population-based cohorts Malmö Diet and Cancer Study and Malmö Preventive Project. A subset of corresponding fallopian tubes (n = 36) with no histopathological evidence of disease was also analysed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>While abundantly expressed in the majority of fallopian tubes with more than 75% positive nuclei in 16/36 (44%) cases, AR was absent in 108/154 (70%) of EOC cases. AR expression was not related to prognosis in the entire cohort, but in the serous subtype (n = 90), AR positivity (> 10% positive nuclei) was associated with a prolonged disease specific survival in univariate (HR= 0.49; 95% CI 0.25-0.96; p= 0.038) and multivariate (HR= 0.46; 95% CI 0.22-0.97; p= 0.042) analysis, adjusted for age, grade and clinical stage.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>AR expression is considerably reduced in EOC as compared to fallopian tubes, and in EOC of the serous subtype, high AR expression is a favourable prognostic factor. These results indicate that assessment of AR expression might be of value for treatment stratification of EOC patients with serous ovarian carcinoma.</p

Preparatory Signal Detection for Annex I Countries under the Kyoto Protocol - A Lesson for the Post-Kyoto Policy Process

In our study we address the detection of uncertain GHG emission changes (also termed emission signals) under the Kyoto Protocol. The question to be probed is "how well do we need to know net emissions if we want to detect a specified emission signal after a given time?" No restrictions exist as to what concerns the net emitter. However, for data availability reasons and because of the excellent possibilityof inter-country comparisons, the Protocols Annex I countries are used as net emitters. Another restriction concerns the exclusion of emissions/removals due to land-use change and forestry (LUCF) as the reporting of their uncertainties is only soon becoming standard practice. Our study centers on the preparatory detection of emission signals, which should have been applied prior to/in negotiating the Kyoto Protocol. Rigorous preparatory signal detection has not yet been carried out, neither prior to the negotiations of the Kyoto Protocol nor afterwards. The starting point for preparatory signal detection is that the Annex I countries under the Kyoto Protocol comply with with their emission limitation or reduction commitments. Uncertainties are already monitored. However, monitored emissions and uncertainties are still dealt with in isolation. A connection between emission and uncertainty estimates for the purpose of an advanced country evaluation has not yet been established. We apply four preparatory signal detection techniques. These are the Critical Relative Uncertainty (CRU) concept, the Verification Time (VT) concept, the Undershooting (Und) concept, and the Undershooting and Verification Time (Und&VT) concepts combined. All of the techniques identify an emission signal and consider the total uncertainty that underlies the countries emissions, either in the commitment year/period or in both the base year and the commitment year/period. The techniques follow a hierarchical order in terms of complexity permitting to explore their robustness. The most complex technique, the Und&VT concept, considers in addition to uncertainty (1) the dynamics of the signal itself permitting to ask for the verification time, the time when the signal is outstripping total uncertainty; (2) the risk (probability) that the countries true emissions in the commitment year/period are above (below) their true emission limitation or reduction commitments; (3) the undershooting that is needed to reduce this risk to a prescribed level; and (4) a corrected undershooting/risk that accounts for detectability, i.e., that fulfills a given commitment period or, equivalently, its maximal allowable verification time. Our preparatory signal detection exercise exemplifies that the negotiations for the Kyoto Protocol were imprudent because they did not consider the consequences of uncertainty, i.e., (1) the risk that the countries true emissions in the commitment year/period are above their true emission limitation or reduction commitments; and (2) detectable targets. Expecting that Annex I countries exhibit relative uncertainties in the range of 5-10 % and above rather than below, excluding emissions/removals due to LUCF, both the CRU concept and VT concept show that it is virtually impossible for most of the Annex I countries to meet the condition that their overall relative uncertainties are smaller than their CRUs or, equivalently, that their VTs are smaller than their maximal allowable verification times. Moreover, the Und and the Und&VT concepts show that the countries committed emission limitation or reduction targets - or their Kyoto-compatible but detectable targets, respectively - require considerable undershooting if one wants to keep the risk low that the countries true emissios in the commitment year/period are above the true equivalents of these targets. The amount by which a country undershoots its Kyoto target or its Kyoto-compatible but detectable target can be traded. Towards installing a successful trading regime, countries may want to also price the risk associated with this amount We anticipate that the evaluation of the countries emission signals in terms of risk and detectability will become reality. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also suggests assessing total uncertainties. However, a connection between monitored emission and uncertainty estimates for the purpose of an advanced country evaluation, which considers the aforementioned risk as well as detectable targets, has not yet been established. The IPCC has to take up this challenge

Preparatory Signal Detection for the EU Member States under EU Burden Sharing - Advanced Monitoring Including Uncertainty (1990-2002)

This study follows up the authors' collaborative IIASA Interim Report IR-04-024 (Jonas et al., 2004) which addresses the preparatory detection of uncertain greenhouse gas (GHG) emission changes (also termed emission signals) under the Kyoto Protocol. The question was "how well do we need to know net emissions if we want to detect a specified emission signal after a given time?" The authors use the Protocol's Annex I countries as net emitters and excluded the emission/removals due to land-use change and forestry (LUCF). They motivated the application of preparatory signal detection in the context of the Kyoto Protocol as a necessary measure that should have been taken prior to/in negotiating the Protocol. The authors argued that uncertainties are already monitored and are increasingly made available but that monitored emissions and uncertainties are still dealt with in isolation. A connection between emissions and uncertainty estimates for the purpose of an advanced country evaluation has not yet been established. The authors develop four preparatory signal detection techniques and applied these to the Annex I countries under the Kyoto Protocol. The frame of reference for preparatory signal detection is that Annex I countries comply with their committed emission targets in 2008-2012. In our study we apply one of these techniques, the combined undershooting and verification time (Und&VT) concept to advance the monitoring of the GHG emissions reported by the Member States of the European Union (EU). In contrast to the earlier study, we focus on the Member States' committed emission targets under the EU burden sharing in compliance with the Kyoto Protocol. We apply the Und&VT concept in the standard mode, i.e., with reference to the Member States committed emission targets in 2008-2012, and in a new mode, i.e., with reference to linear path emission targets between the base year and the commitment year (here for 2001). To advance the reporting of the EU we take uncertainty and its consequences into consideration, i.e., (i) the risk that a Member State's true emissions in the commitment year/period are above its true emission limitation or reduction commitment; and (ii) the detectability of its target. Undershooting the committed EU target or EU-compatible, but detectable, target can decrease this risk. We contrast the Member States' linear path undershooting targets for the year 2001 with their actual emission situation in that year, for which we use the distance-to-target indicator (DTI) introduced by the European Environment Agency. In 2001 only four countries exhibit a negative DTI and thus appear as potential sellers: Germany, Luxembourg, Sweden and the United Kingdom. However, expecting that the EU Member States exhibit relative uncertainties in the range of 5-10% and above rather than below, excluding emissions/removals due to LUCF, the member states require considerable undershooting of their EU-compatible, but detectable, targets if one wants to keep the associated risk low. These conditions can only be met by the three Member States Germany, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom - or Luxembourg, Germany and the United Kingdom if ranked in terms of creditability. Within the 5-10% relative uncertainty class, Sweden can only act as potential high-risk seller. In contrast, with relative uncertainty increasing from 5 to 10%, the emission signal of the EU as a whole switches from "detectable" to "non-detectable", indicating that the negotiations for the Kyoto Protocol were imprudent because they did not take uncertainty and its consequences into account. We anticipate that the evaluation of emission signals in terms of risk and detectability will become standard practice and that these two qualifiers will be accounted for in pricing GHG emission permits

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (−0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications

The fluorescent pentameric oligothiophene pFTAA identifies filamentous tau in live neurons cultured from adult P301S tau mice.

Identification of fluorescent dyes that label the filamentous protein aggregates characteristic of neurodegenerative disease, such as β-amyloid and tau in Alzheimer's disease, in a live cell culture system has previously been a major hurdle. Here we show that pentameric formyl thiophene acetic acid (pFTAA) fulfills this function in living neurons cultured from adult P301S tau transgenic mice. Injection of pFTAA into 5-month-old P301S tau mice detected cortical and DRG neurons immunoreactive for AT100, an antibody that identifies solely filamentous tau, or MC1, an antibody that identifies a conformational change in tau that is commensurate with neurofibrillary tangle formation in Alzheimer's disease brains. In fixed cultures of dorsal root ganglion (DRG) neurons, pFTAA binding, which also identified AT100 or MC1+ve neurons, followed a single, saturable binding curve with a half saturation constant of 0.14 μM, the first reported measurement of a binding affinity of a beta-sheet reactive dye to primary neurons harboring filamentous tau. Treatment with formic acid, which solubilizes filamentous tau, extracted pFTAA, and prevented the re-binding of pFTAA and MC1 without perturbing expression of soluble tau, detected using an anti-human tau (HT7) antibody. In live cultures, pFTAA only identified DRG neurons that, after fixation, were AT100/MC1+ve, confirming that these forms of tau pre-exist in live neurons. The utility of pFTAA to discriminate between living neurons containing filamentous tau from other neurons is demonstrated by showing that more pFTAA+ve neurons die than pFTAA-ve neurons over 25 days. Since pFTAA identifies fibrillar tau and other misfolded proteins in living neurons in culture and in animal models of several neurodegenerative diseases, as well as in human brains, it will have considerable application in sorting out disease mechanisms and in identifying disease-modifying drugs that will ultimately help establish the mechanisms of neurodegeneration in human neurodegenerative diseases.This work was funded by grant number NC/L000741/1 from the National Council of the 3Rs (NC3Rs) and Alzheimer's Research UK (ARUK). KPR Nilsson is funded by an ERC Starting Independent Researcher Grant (Project: MUMID, number 260604).This is the final published version of the article. It was originally published in Frontiers in Neuroscience (Brelstaff J, Ossola B, Neher JJ, Klingstedt T, Nilsson KPR, Goedert M, Spillantini MG, Tolkovsky AM, Frontiers in Neuroscience, 2015, 9:184, doi:10.3389/fnins.2015.00184). The final version is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fnins.2015.0018

PROPHECY—a yeast phenome database, update 2006

Connecting genotype to phenotype is fundamental in biomedical research and in our understanding of disease. Phenomics—the large-scale quantitative phenotypic analysis of genotypes on a genome-wide scale—connects automated data generation with the development of novel tools for phenotype data integration, mining and visualization. Our yeast phenomics database PROPHECY is available at . Via phenotyping of 984 heterozygous diploids for all essential genes the genotypes analysed and presented in PROPHECY have been extended and now include all genes in the yeast genome. Further, phenotypic data from gene overexpression of 574 membrane spanning proteins has recently been included. To facilitate the interpretation of quantitative phenotypic data we have developed a new phenotype display option, the Comparative Growth Curve Display, where growth curve differences for a large number of mutants compared with the wild type are easily revealed. In addition, PROPHECY now offers a more informative and intuitive first-sight display of its phenotypic data via its new summary page. We have also extended the arsenal of data analysis tools to include dynamic visualization of phenotypes along individual chromosomes. PROPHECY is an initiative to enhance the growing field of phenome bioinformatics

Prostate specific antigen concentration at age 60 and death or metastasis from prostate cancer: case-control study

Objective To determine the relation between concentrations of prostate specific antigen at age 60 and subsequent diagnosis of clinically relevant prostate cancer in an unscreened population to evaluate whether screening for prostate cancer and chemoprevention could be stratified by risk

Aves exóticas en Ecuador: Segundo informe anual del Comité Ecuatoriano de Registros Ornitológicos (CERO)

We summarize bird species records submitted to the Committee for Ecuadorian Records in Ornithology (CERO) from July 2013 to March 2014. CERO compiles Ecuador&rsquo;s official country checklist and updates it annually. We present four new country records (Amazonetta brasiliensis, Porzana albicollis, Haematopus ater, Chroicocephalus Philadelphia), one new country record that antedates earlier records (Vireo flavifrons), first voucher documentation for four species (Larus californicus, Pangara guttata, Conirostrum bicolor, Cardellina pusilla), and 26 significant range extensions or records of rare and poorly known species (Oceanodroma leucorhoa, Oceanodroma hornbyi, Sula leucogaster, Phalacrocorax bougainvillii, Butorides virescens, Ardea herodias, Egretta rufescens, Egretta caerulea, Eudocimus albus, Eudocimus ruber, Anas clypeata, Anas cyanoptera, Aythya afflnis, Gallinago delicata, Limosa fedoa, Larus delawarensis, Hydroprogne caspia, Glaucidium griseiceps, Chloroceryle aenea, Platyrinchus saturatus, Myiarchus crinitus, Tyrannus niveigularis, Knipolegus poecilurus, Doliomis remseni, Setophaga castanea, Lonchura malacca). Three records are from the Galapagos Islands (Oceanodroma leucorhoa, Butorides virescens, Egretta caerulea), while all others were obtained in mainland Ecuador. Six species are eliminated from the Ecuadorian list (Geotrygon viol&aacute;cea, Topaza pella, Attila bolivianos, Pachyramphus rufus, Pachyramphus validus, Lonchura atricapilla). Two additional records were postponed for further expert revision (Thalassarche cauta) or for additional evidence (Neomorphus pucheranit) and three submitted records were rejected (Patagioenas oenops, Hydropsalis maculicaudus, Colaptes rupicola). This information updates our knowledge of the distribution and status of poorly known species in Ecuador, as well as the national bird checklist that currently reaches 1673 species (1608 confirmed with voucher documentation, 65 hypothetical).Presentamos los registros de aves enviados al Comité Ecuatoriano de Registros Ornitológicos (CERO) entre Julio 2013 y Marzo 2014. CERO recopila la lista oficial de aves del Ecuador y la actualiza anualmente. Presentamos cuatro registros nuevos para el país (Amazonetta brasiliensis, Porzana albicollis, Haematopus ater, Chroicocephalus Philadelphia), un registro nuevo que antecede a otros previamente publicados (Vireo flavifrons), la primera documentación en el país de cuatro especies (Larus californicus, Tangara guttata, Conirostrum bicolor, Cardellina pusilla) y 26 extensiones significativas de distribución o registro de especies raras (Oceanodroma leucorhoa, Oceanodroma hombyi, Sula leucogaster, Phalacrocorax bougainvillii, Butorides virescens, Ardea herodias, Egretta rufescens, Egretta caerulea, Eudocimus albus, Eudocimus ruber, Anas clypeata, Anas cyanoptera, Aythya qffinis, Gallinago delicata, Limosa fedoa, Larus delawarensis, Hydroprogne caspia, Glaucidium griseiceps, Chloroceryle aenea, Platyrinchus saturatus, Myiarchus crinitus, Tyrannus niveigularis, Knipolegus poecilurus, Doliomis remseni, Setophaga castanea, Lonchura malacca). Tres registros provienen de las islas Galápagos (Oceanodroma leucorhoa, Butorides virescens, Egretta caerulea), mientras que todos los demás provienen del Ecuador continental. Se eliminan seis especies del listado nacional (Geotrygon violácea, Topaza pella, Attila bolivianas, Pachyramphus rufus, Pachyramphus validus, Lonchura atricapilla). Dos registros adicionales se pospusieron para revisiones más detalladas (Thalassarche cauta) o evidencias adicionales (Neomorphus pucheranit) y se rechazan los reportes de tres especies (Patagioenas oenops, Hydropsalis maculicaudus, Colaptes rupicola). Esta información actualiza nuestro conocimiento sobre la distribución y estado de especies de aves poco conocidas en Ecuador, asi como el listado nacional de aves que actualmente incluye 1673 especies (1608 confirmadas y documentadas, 65 hipotéticas)