Progress Report 1: Resilience and Adaptation to Climatic Extreme Wildfires (RACE Wildfires)

This is the first progress report of the international project funded by the National Research Council of Canada called Resilience and Adaptation to Climatic Extreme Wildfires (RACE Wildfires). In this first phase, the research performed included two main tasks: 1) the development of a sub-model for the representation of the impact of reduced visibility conditions on driving speed and 2) the development of a conceptual model for the study of the impact of the pandemic on shelter availability and destination choice. An experimental dataset collected in a virtual reality environment has been used to develop a sub-model for macroscopic traffic models considering the impact of reduced visibility conditions on driving speed. An application of a calibrated traffic model considering the impact of smoke has been performed using the WUI-NITY platform, an open multi-physics platform which includes wildfire spread, pedestrian response and traffic modelling. Verification testing has been performed as well. A conceptual framework for the development of a destination choice model to be applied in wildfire scenarios has also been developed

A virtual reality experiment on driving speed in smoke during a wildfire evacuation

This thesis investigates how individual driving behaviour during an evacuation is affected by the presence of smoke on the evacuation route. The thesis aims are to determine a correlation between the choice of speed and the density of the smoke, determine if there is a difference in choice of speed in relation to the previously driven road segment (in thicker or thinner smoke), and determine if the road positioning (specifically the lateral position in the cross section) is dependent on the smoke density. This was done by performing a virtual reality (VR) experiment where participants drove a car on the road (using a steering wheel and pedals) in an ad hoc wildfire evacuation scenario where no other drivers were present. A total of 46 participants were involved in the experiments and over 84 000 data points of the participants’ instantaneous speed were used to develop two regression models for the choice of speed as a function of optical density; one model using a linear correlation, and one model using a polynomial correlation. The participant also filled out a survey which asked questions about the participant itself and its experiences during the experiment. A reduction of speed due to reduced visibility conditions was observed. No statistical significance could be found to prove that there is a difference in lateral position at different smoke densities or that the sequence of smoke densities had an impact on the chosen speed. Future research should validate these experiments using data from real life scenarios

Individual Driving Behaviour in Wildfire Smoke

This work presents the results of a virtual reality (VR) experiment aiming at investigating how individual driving behaviour is affected by the presence of wildfire smoke. The experiment included a driving simulation task to study the chosen driving speed at different smoke densities and the lateral position of the driven car on the road cross section. During the VR experiment, participants were presented with a simulated wildfire evacuation scenario including the presence of smoke through a head mounted display and were given a task to evacuate via car using a steering wheel and pedals on a single carriageway road with two lanes. A total of 46 participants took part in the experiments and their driven trajectories along with their instantaneous speed were collected in 5 different visibility conditions. Driving speed decreased with increasing smoke density. No difference in choice of speed was found in relation to the smoke density in the previously driven road segment (in thicker or thinner smoke). No difference in lateral position (closer to or further from the centreline of the road) at different smoke densities was found. Suggested correlations between driving speed and wildfire smoke density are provided in this paper, referring to either a fractional reduction of the speed in smoke-free conditions or an absolute choice of speed at a given visibility condition. These correlations are useful to provide more accurate estimation of evacuation times with traffic evacuation modelling tools in case of wildfire and wildland-urban interface fire scenarios

Modelling the impact of wildfire smoke on driving speed

Traffic models can be used to study evacuation scenarios during wildland-urban interface fires and identify the ability of a community to reach a safe place. In those scenarios, wildfire smoke can reduce visibility conditions on the road. This can have serious implications on the evacuation effectiveness since drivers would reduce their speed in relation to the optical density on the road. To date, there is no traffic model which explicitly represents the impact of reduced visibility conditions on traffic evacuation flow. This paper makes use of an experimental dataset collected in a virtual reality environment to calibrate two widely used macroscopic traffic models (the Lighthill-Whitham-Richards and the Van Aerde models) in order to account for the impact of reduced visibility conditions on driving speed. An application of the calibrated traffic model considering the impact of smoke has been performed using the WUI-NITY platform, an open multi-physics platform which includes wildfire spread, pedestrian response and traffic modelling. A dedicated verification test has been developed and performed considering different values of optical densities of smoke and traffic densities to ensure the model has been implemented correctly in WUI-NITY. A case study that demonstrates the applicability of the model to real life scenarios was also implemented, based on data from an evacuation drill. This paper shows that the presence of smoke on the road can significantly decrease movement speed and increase evacuation times thus highlighting the need for inclusion of this factor in traffic evacuation models applied for wildland-urban interface fire scenarios

Brandteknisk riskvärdering av Hotell Nissastigen

In the following report, a fire safety evaluation of Hotel Nissastigen in central Gislaved is presented. The building itself consists of five floors, whereof two are cellar and attic. Beyond the usual hotel business, Nissastigen both offers a place to eat at their restaurant and room for conferences, as well as acting as a gathering point for tourists, thus making it vital for the local economy. The purpose with this report is to perform a fire safety evaluation of Hotel Nissastigen and find out whether the building can be evacuated safely in case of a fire or not. The scope of the evaluation is limited to personal safety, hence disregarding damages to property, environment or other. After an initial general risk analysis, a selection from the ten fire scenarios was made to determine which three scenarios was to be further analyzed with simulations using FDS and Pathfinder, along with hand-made calculations. To evaluate personal safety, critical values for smoke layer height, temperature and visibility were set. Relevant safety measures are proposed along with a final evaluation and conclusion of the building’s fire protection. The conclusion drawn is that the fire protection of Hotel Nissastigen is partly acceptable. The personal safety is heavily dependent on factors whose functionality cannot be guaranteed, such as the systematic inspection of whether the emergency exits are functional or not and how effective the magnetically controlled doors are at reducing smoke spread. A selection of the safety measure proposals is presented below. Safety measure proposals regarding evacuation * Installation of two-way communication systems and creation of evacuation instructions intended for people with movement disabilities in case of fire * An update of evacuation plans since the current plans does not accord with current doors and hallways * Better routines for ensuring that emergency exits are functional * Widening of emergency exit, or addition of an extra staircase, on the second floor to ease the flow of people out of the large conference room Safety measure proposals regarding fire cell boundaries * Replacing the magnetically controlled doors with airtight doors (EI 30-SmC) * Installation of automatic door closers on doors that make up fire cells, to ensure the integrity of the fire cells * Sealing of every lead-through made throughout the buildin

Heparin-Binding Protein As A Prognostic Biomarker of Sepsis and Disease Severity at The Emergency Department

OBJECTIVE: Rapid and early detection of patients at risk to develop sepsis remains demanding. Heparin-binding protein (HBP) has previously demonstrated good prognostic properties in detecting organ dysfunction among patients with suspected infections. This study aimed to evaluate the plasma-levels of HBP as a prognostic biomarker for infection-induced organ dysfunction among patients seeking medical attention at the emergency department.DESIGN: Prospective, international multicenter, convenience sample study SETTING:: Four general emergency departments at academic centers in Sweden, Switzerland and Canada.PATIENTS: All emergency encounters among adults where one of the following criteria were fulfilled: a) respiratory rate >25 breaths per minute; b) heart rate >120 beats per minute; c) altered mental status; d) systolic blood pressure <100 mm Hg; e) oxygen saturation <90% without oxygen; f) oxygen saturation <93% with oxygen; g) reported oxygen saturation <90%.INTERVENTION: None MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:: A total of 524 ED patients were prospectively enrolled, of these 236 (45%) were eventually adjudicated to have a non-infectious disease. Three hundred forty-seven patients (66%) had or developed organ dysfunction within 72 hours, 54 patients (10%) were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU), and 23 patients (4%) died within 72 hours. For the primary outcome, detection of infected-related organ dysfunction within 72 hours, the AUC for HBP was 0.73 (95% C.I. 0.68-0.78) among all patients and 0.82 (95% C.I. 0.76-0.87) among patients confidently adjudicated to either infection or no infection. Against the secondary outcome, infection leading to admittance to the ICU, death or a persistent high SOFA-score due to an infection (SOFA-score ≥5 at 12-24 hours) HBP had an AUC of 0.87 (95% C.I. 0.79-0.95) among all patients and 0.88 (95% C.I. 0.77-0.99) among patients confidently adjudicated to either infection or non-infection.CONCLUSIONS: Among patients at the emergency department, HBP demonstrated good prognostic and discriminatory properties in detecting the most severely ill patients with infection