Fall from Grace: South Africa and the Changing International Order

Special Issue for Perspectives on the Changing Global Balance of Power</p

Long-term MRA follow-up after coiling of intracranial aneurysms: impact on mood and anxiety

Magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) screening for recurrence of a coiled intracranial aneurysm and formation of new aneurysms long-term after coiling may induce anxiety and depression. In coiled patients, we evaluated effects on mood and level of anxiety from long-term follow-up MRA in comparison to general population norms. Of 162 patients participating in a long-term (> 4.5 years) MRA follow-up after coiling, 120 completed the EQ-5D questionnaire, a visual analog health scale and a self-developed screening related questionnaire at the time of MRA. Three months later, the same questionnaires were completed by 100 of these 120 patients. Results were compared to general population norms adjusted for gender and age. Any problem with anxiety or depression was reported in 56 of 120 patients (47%; 95%CI38a dagger"56%) at baseline and 42 of 100 patients (42%; 95%CI32a dagger"52%) at 3 months, equally for screen-positives and -negatives. Compared to the reference population, participants scored 38% (95%CI9a dagger"67%) and 27% (95%CI4a dagger"50%) more often any problem with anxiety or depression. Three months after screening, 21% (20 of 92) of screen-negatives and 13% (one of eight) of screen-positives reported to be less afraid of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) compared to before screening. One of eight screen-positives reported increased fear of SAH. Patients with coiled intracranial aneurysms participating in long-term MRA screening reported significantly more often to be anxious or depressed than a reference group. Screening did not significantly increase anxiety or depression temporarily. However, subjectively, patients did report an increase in anxiety caused by screening, which decreased after 3 months

A comparative study of legitimation strategies in hybrid regimes

The Institutions of Politics; Design, Workings, and implications ( do not use, ended 1-1-2020

From the sinh-Gordon field theory to the one-dimensional Bose gas: exact local correlations and full counting statistics

We derive exact formulas for the expectation value of local observables in a one-dimensional gas of bosons with point-wise repulsive interactions (Lieb-Liniger model). Starting from a recently conjectured expression for the expectation value of vertex operators in the sinh-Gordon field theory, we derive explicit analytic expressions for the one-point K-body correlation functions \u27e8(\u3a8\u2020)K(\u3a8)K\u27e9 in the Lieb-Liniger gas, for arbitrary integer K. These are valid for all excited states in the thermodynamic limit, including thermal states, generalized Gibbs ensembles and non-equilibrium steady states arising in transport settings. Our formulas display several physically interesting applications: most prominently, they allow us to compute the full counting statistics for the particle-number fluctuations in a short interval. Furthermore, combining our findings with the recently introduced generalized hydrodynamics, we are able to study multi-point correlation functions at the Eulerian scale in non-homogeneous settings. Our results complement previous studies in the literature and provide a full solution to the problem of computing one-point functions in the Lieb Liniger model

Monitoring Virologic Responses to Antiretroviral Therapy in HIV-Infected Adults in Kenya: Evaluation of a Low-Cost Viral Load Assay

A key advantage of monitoring HIV viral load (VL) in persons receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is the ability to detect virologic failure before clinical deterioration or resistance occurs. Detection of virologic failure will help clarify the need for enhanced adherence counseling or a change to second- line therapy. Low-cost, locally performable alternates to expensive VL assays are needed where resources are limited.We monitored the response to 48-week ART in 100 treatment-naïve Kenyan adults using a low-cost VL measurement, the Cavidi reverse transcriptase (RT) assay and gold-standard assays, Roche RNA PCR and Bayer Versant HIV-1 RNA (bDNA) assays. In Altman-Bland plots, the mean difference in viral loads between the three assays was small (<0.5 log(10) copies/mL). However, the limits of agreement between the methods exceeded the biologically relevant change of 0.5 log copies/ml. Therefore, the RT assay cannot be used interchangeably with the other assays to monitor individual patients. The RT assay was 100% sensitive in detecting viral loads of > or =400 copies/ml compared to gold-standard assays. After 24 weeks of treatment, viral load measured by the RT assay was undetectable in 95% of 65 patients with undetectable RNA PCR VL (<400 copies/ml), 90% of 67 patients with undetectable bDNA VL, and 96% of 57 patients with undetectable VL in both RNA PCR and bDNA assays. The negative predictive value of the RT assay was 100% compared to either assay; the positive predictive value was 86% compared to RNA PCR and 70% compared to bDNA.The RT assay compared well with gold standard assays. Our study highlights the importance of not interchanging viral load assays when monitoring an individual patient. Furthermore, the RT assay may be limited by low positive predictive values when used in populations with low prevalence of virologic failure

Carotid Intima-Media Thickness Progression as Surrogate Marker for Cardiovascular Risk Meta-Analysis of 119 Clinical Trials Involving 100 667 Patients

Background: To quantify the association between effects of interventions on carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) progression and their effects on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Methods: We systematically collated data from randomized, controlled trials. cIMT was assessed as the mean value at the common-carotid-artery; if unavailable, the maximum value at the common-carotid-artery or other cIMT measures were used. The primary outcome was a combined CVD end point defined as myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularization procedures, or fatal CVD. We estimated intervention effects on cIMT progression and incident CVD for each trial, before relating the 2 using a Bayesian meta-regression approach. Results: We analyzed data of 119 randomized, controlled trials involving 100 667 patients (mean age 62 years, 42% female). Over an average follow-up of 3.7 years, 12 038 patients developed the combined CVD end point. Across all interventions, each 10 μm/y reduction of cIMT progression resulted in a relative risk for CVD of 0.91 (95% Credible Interval, 0.87–0.94), with an additional relative risk for CVD of 0.92 (0.87–0.97) being achieved independent of cIMT progression. Taken together, we estimated that interventions reducing cIMT progression by 10, 20, 30, or 40 μm/y would yield relative risks of 0.84 (0.75–0.93), 0.76 (0.67–0.85), 0.69 (0.59–0.79), or 0.63 (0.52–0.74), respectively. Results were similar when grouping trials by type of intervention, time of conduct, time to ultrasound follow-up, availability of individual-participant data, primary versus secondary prevention trials, type of cIMT measurement, and proportion of female patients. Conclusions: The extent of intervention effects on cIMT progression predicted the degree of CVD risk reduction. This provides a missing link supporting the usefulness of cIMT progression as a surrogate marker for CVD risk in clinical trials

Intimate strangers: perspectives on female converts to Islam in Britain

This article explores the relationships between female converts to Islam in Britain and their close friends and family. It pays attention to the perspectives of converts but focuses on the reactions of their intimates to the conversion. We argue that converts become ‘intimate strangers’ through conversion—estranged on the level of understanding and belief but intimate on the emotional plane. This strangeness is symbolised by the Orientalist stereotypes associated with the converts. At the same time, friends and family shun engagement with the conversion itself, thus keeping alive the stereotypes and precluding understanding. In refusing to engage with matters of belief even within the intimate space of the family, secularism’s orthodox private/public divide gets busted where religiosity, instead, becomes an issue between the (individual) private and the (family) public. Lacking reciprocity and with no access to the inner depths of the people they are closest to, the liberal rhetoric of friends and family about personal choice and equal acceptance of all paths amounts to bigotry and turns out to be painful for both the converts and their intimates.Arts and Humanities Research Council, Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Centre of Islamic Studie

The relationship between change in subjective outcome and change in disease: a potential paradox

Contains fulltext : 87756.pdf (publisher's version ) (Closed access)BACKGROUND: Response shift theory suggests that improvements in health lead patients to change their internal standards and re-assess former health states as worse than initially rated when using retrospective ratings via the then-test. The predictions of response shift theory can be illustrated using prospect theory, whereby a change in current health causes a change in reference frame. Therefore, if health deteriorates, the former health state will receive a better rating, whereas if it improves, the former health state will receive a worse rating. OBJECTIVE: To explore the predictions of response shift and prospect theory by relating subjective change to objective change. METHODS: Baseline and 3-month follow-up data from a cohort of rheumatoid arthritis patients (N = 197) starting on TNFalpha-blocking agents were used. Objective disease change was classified according to a disease-specific clinical outcome measure (DAS28). Visual analogue scales (VAS) for general health (GH) and pain were used as self-reported measures. Three months after starting on anti-TNFalpha, patients used the then-test to re-rate their baseline health with regard to general health and pain. Differences between then-test value and baseline values were calculated and tested between improved, non-improved and deteriorated patients by the Student t-test. RESULTS: At 3 months, 51 (25.9%) patients had good improvement in health, 83 (42.1%) had moderate improvement, and 63 (32.0%) had no improvement or deteriorated in health. All patients no matter whether they improved, did not improve, or even became worse rated their health as worse retrospectively. The difference between the then-test rating and the baseline value was similarly sized in all groups. CONCLUSION: More positive ratings of retrospective health are independent of disease change. This suggests that patients do not necessarily change their standards in line with their disease change, and therefore it is inappropriate to use the then-test to correct for such a change. If a then-test is used to correct for shifts in internal standards, it might lead to the paradoxical result that patients who do not improve or even deteriorate increase significantly on self-reported health and pain. An alternative explanation for differences in retrospective and prospective ratings of health is the implicit theory of change which is more successful in explaining our results than prospect theory.1 september 201