Assessment of human influenza pandemic scenarios in Europe

The response to the emergence of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic was the result of a decade of pandemic planning, largely centred on the threat of an avian influenza A(H5N1) pandemic. Based on a literature review, this study aims to define a set of new pandemic scenarios that could be used in case of a future influenza pandemic. A total of 338 documents were identified using a searching strategy based on seven combinations of keywords. Eighty-three of these documents provided useful information on the 13 virus-related and health-system-related parameters initially considered for describing scenarios. Among these, four parameters were finally selected (clinical attack rate, case fatality rate, hospital admission rate, and intensive care admission rate) and four different levels of severity for each of them were set. The definition of six most likely scenarios results from the combination of four different levels of severity of the four final parameters (256 possible scenarios). Although it has some limitations, this approach allows for more flexible scenarios and hence it is far from the classic scenarios structure used for pandemic plans until 2009

Plasmodium falciparum liver stage antigen-1 is cross-linked by tissue transglutaminase

Background Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites injected by mosquitoes into the blood rapidly enter liver hepatocytes and undergo pre-erythrocytic developmental schizogony forming tens of thousands of merozoites per hepatocyte. Shortly after hepatocyte invasion, the parasite starts to produce Liver Stage Antigen-1 (LSA-1), which accumulates within the parasitophorous vacuole surrounding the mass of developing merozoites. The LSA-1 protein has been described as a flocculent mass, but its role in parasite development has not been determined. Methods Recombinant N-terminal, C-terminal or a construct containing both the N- and C- terminal regions flanking two 17 amino acid residue central repeat sequences (LSA-NRC) were subjected to in vitro modification by tissue transglutaminase-2 (TG2) to determine if cross-linking occurred. In addition, tissue sections of P. falciparum-infected human hepatocytes were probed with monoclonal antibodies to the isopeptide ε-(γ-glutamyl)lysine cross-bridge formed by TG2 enzymatic activity to determine if these antibodies co-localized with antibodies to LSA-1 in the growing liver schizonts. Results This study identified a substrate motif for (TG2) and a putative casein kinase 2 phosphorylation site within the central repeat region of LSA-1. The function of TG2 is the post-translational modification of proteins by the formation of a unique isopeptide ε-(γ-glutamyl)lysine cross-bridge between glutamine and lysine residues. When recombinant LSA-1 protein was crosslinked in vitro by purified TG2 in a calcium dependent reaction, a flocculent mass of protein was formed that was highly resistant to degradation. The cross-linking was not detectably affected by phosphorylation with plasmodial CK2 in vitro. Monoclonal antibodies specific to the very unique TG2 catalyzed ε- lysine cross-bridge co-localized with antibodies to LSA-1 in infected human hepatocytes providing visual evidence that LSA-1 was cross-linked in vivo. Conclusions While the role of LSA-1 is still unknown these results suggest that it becomes highly cross-linked which may aid in the protection of the parasite as it develo

The impact of habitat quality inside protected areas on distribution of the Dominican Republic's last endemic non-volant land mammals

The Hispaniolan solenodon, Solenodon paradoxus, and Hispaniolan hutia, Plagiodontia aedium, are the Dominican Republic’s only surviving endemic non-volant land mammals, and are high priorities for conservation. The country has an extensive protected area (PA) network designed to maintain habitats and benefit biodiversity, but which faces significant anthropogenic threats likely to detrimentally impact both species. We examined how differences in habitats, forest structure, topography, and human activity influence presence of solenodons and hutias across the Dominican Republic. Systematic surveys of seven PAs were undertaken to record indirect signs, with presence-absence data analyzed using a multi-model inference approach incorporating ecological variables from both field and GIS data. Solenodons were detected relatively frequently, whereas detections of hutias were uncommon. Lower elevations, increased surrounding tree cover, canopy closure, and reduced levels of low vegetation are all associated with increased probability of detecting solenodons, whereas agriculture and mangrove represent poor-quality habitat. Increased canopy closure, tree basal area (indicating older-growth forest), and increased rock substrate (providing more den sites) are associated with increased probability of detecting hutias. Our findings indicated that human activities within PAs are likely to negatively affect both species, and conservation activities should focus on preventing encroachment and conversion of forest to agriculture to maintain high-quality forest habitats. / El solenodonte de la Hispaniola, Solenodon paradoxus, y la hutia de la Hispaniola, Plagiodontia aedium, son los únicos mamíferos endémicos terrestres no voladores que sobreviven en la República Dominicana, su conservación es de alta prioridad. El país tiene una extensa red de áreas protegidas (AP) diseñada para mantener hábitats y beneficiar la biodiversidad, pero se enfrenta a amenazas antropogénicas. Sin embargo, no existen datos cuantitativos para evaluar las presiones antropogénicas que amenazan a los solenodontes y las hutias. Examinamos cómo las diferencias en los hábitats, la estructura del bosque, la topografía y la actividad humana influyen la presencia de solenodontes y hutias en toda la República Dominicana. Se realizaron encuestas sistemáticas de siete AP para registrar los signos indirectos de ambas especies, los datos de presencia/ausencia fueron analizados mediante inferencia multimodelo que incorpora variables ecológicas de los datos de campo y Sistema de Información Geográfica. Los Solenodontes se detectaron relativamente frecuentemente, mientras que las detecciones de hutias fueron menos comunes. Las elevaciones más bajas, el aumento de la cubierta arbórea circundante, el cierre del dosel y los niveles reducidos de vegetación baja se asocian con una mayor probabilidad de detectar solenodones. Mientras que la agricultura y los manglares representan un hábitat de mala calidad para el solenodonte. Aumento del cierre del dosel, área basal del árbol (que indica un bosque más antiguo) y un sustrato con mayor proporcion de roca (que proporciona más sitios para madrigueras) se asocian con una mayor probabilidad de detectar hutias. Nuestros hallazgos indican que las actividades humanas dentro de las AP pueden afectar negativamente a ambas especies. Las actividades de conservación deberían enfocarse en mantener hábitats forestales de alta calidad por medio de prevenir la invasión y la conversión de los bosques a agricultura

A comparison of sexual behaviour and attitudes of healthy adolescents in a Danish high school in 1982, 1996, and 2001

AIM: To assess changes in sexual behaviour among students at a high school in Denmark from 1982 to 2001. METHODS: An anonymous self-administered questionnaire was used to compare data from three identical cross-sectional surveys performed in 1982, 1996, and 2001. RESULTS: Girls: More girls reported their first sexual intercourse before their 16th birthday in 2001 (42%) than in 1996 (29%) In 1982 it was also 42% (Chi-square for trend: p = 0.003). Fewer girls with no regular partner used condoms for their personal protection in 2001 (2%) than in 1996 (9%) and 1982 (0%) (Chi-square for trend p = 0.016). The proportion of girls with no regular partner who considered protection from sexually transmitted disease important for their choice of contraception was 39% in 2001 compared with 71% in 1996 and only 10% in 1982 (Chi-square for trend: p < 0.0001). Boys: More boys reported sexual debut before their 16th birthday in 2001 (40%) than in 1996 (37%) and 1982 (24%) (Chi-square for trend: p = 0.023). For boys with no regular partner, condom was preferred for personal protection by 85% in 2001, 91% in 1996 and 61% in 1982 (Chi-square for trend p = 0.007). Protection against sexually transmitted infection declined, especially among boys with no regular partner, from 51% in 2001 to 72% in 1996 and 21% in 1982 Chi-square for trend: p < 0.0001). The tendency towards earlier sexual debut and less use of safe sex practices to protect against sexually transmitted infections (STI) was accompanied by a rise in the number of detected STIs during this period. CONCLUSIONS: The period from 1982 to 1996 during which sexual attitudes were directed toward safer sex seems to have given way to a reverse trend in the period from 1996 to 2001. These findings may have significant implications for health care authorities organising preventive strategies for healthy adolescents

Integrated population models poorly estimate the demographic contribution of immigration

Estimating the contribution of demographic parameters to changes in population growth is essential for understanding why populations fluctuate. Integrated population models (IPMs) offer a possibility to estimate the contributions of additional demographic parameters, for which no data have been explicitly collected—typically immigration. Such parameters are often subsequently highlighted as important drivers of population growth. Yet, accuracy in estimating their temporal variation, and consequently their contribution to changes in population growth rate, has not been investigated. To quantify the magnitude and cause of potential biases when estimating the contribution of immigration using IPMs, we simulated data (using northern wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe population estimates) from controlled scenarios to examine potential biases and how they depend on IPM parameterization, formulation of priors, the level of temporal variation in immigration and sample size. We also used empirical data on populations with known rates of immigration: Soay sheep Ovis aries and Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus with zero immigration and grey wolf Canis lupus in Scandinavia with near-zero immigration. IPMs strongly overestimated the contribution of immigration to changes in population growth in scenarios when immigration was simulated with zero temporal variation (proportion of variance attributed to immigration = 63% for the more constrained formulation and real sample size) and in the wild populations, where the true number of immigrants was zero or near-zero (kestrel 19.1%–98.2%, sheep 4.2%–36.1% and wolf 84.0%–99.2%). Although the estimation of the contribution of immigration in the simulation study became more accurate with increasing temporal variation and sample size, it was often not possible to distinguish between an accurate estimation from data with high temporal variation versus an overestimation from data with low temporal variation. Unrealistically, large sample sizes may be required to estimate the contribution of immigration well. To minimize the risk of overestimating the contribution of immigration (or any additional parameter) in IPMs, we recommend to: (a) look for evidence of variation in immigration before investigating its contribution to population growth, (b) simulate and model data for comparison to the real data and (c) use explicit data on immigration when possible

Introduction to the functional RG and applications to gauge theories

These lectures contain an introduction to modern renormalization group (RG) methods as well as functional RG approaches to gauge theories. In the first lecture, the functional renormalization group is introduced with a focus on the flow equation for the effective average action. The second lecture is devoted to a discussion of flow equations and symmetries in general, and flow equations and gauge symmetries in particular. The third lecture deals with the flow equation in the background formalism which is particularly convenient for analytical computations of truncated flows. The fourth lecture concentrates on the transition from microscopic to macroscopic degrees of freedom; even though this is discussed here in the language and the context of QCD, the developed formalism is much more general and will be useful also for other systems.Comment: 60 pages, 14 figures, Lectures held at the 2006 ECT* School "Renormalization Group and Effective Field Theory Approaches to Many-Body Systems", Trento, Ital

Recent developments of the Hierarchical Reference Theory of Fluids and its relation to the Renormalization Group

The Hierarchical Reference Theory (HRT) of fluids is a general framework for the description of phase transitions in microscopic models of classical and quantum statistical physics. The foundations of HRT are briefly reviewed in a self-consistent formulation which includes both the original sharp cut-off procedure and the smooth cut-off implementation, which has been recently investigated. The critical properties of HRT are summarized, together with the behavior of the theory at first order phase transitions. However, the emphasis of this presentation is on the close relationship between HRT and non perturbative renormalization group methods, as well as on recent generalizations of HRT to microscopic models of interest in soft matter and quantum many body physics.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figures. Review paper to appear in Molecular Physic

Competing for the Platform: How Organized Interests affect Party Positioning in the United States

What explains which groups are included in a party coalition in any given election cycle? Recent advances in political party theory suggest that policy demanders comprise parties, and that the composition of a party coalition varies from election to election. We theorize three conditions under which parties articulate an interest group?s preferred positions in its quadrennial platform: when groups are ideologically proximate to the party median, when groups display party loyalty, and when groups are flush with resources. Using computer-assisted content analysis on a unique and rich data source, we examine three cycles of testimony that 80 organized groups provided to the Democratic Party. The analysis compares group requests with the content of Democratic and Republican National Committee platforms in 1996, 2000, and 2004. Results show that parties reward loyal groups and those that are ideologically proximate to the party, but offer no confirmation of a resource effect

Interaction between prion protein and toxic amyloid beta assemblies can be therapeutically targeted at multiple sites

A role for PrP in the toxic effect of oligomeric forms of A beta, implicated in Alzheimer's disease (AD), has been suggested but remains controversial. Here we show that PrP is required for the plasticity-impairing effects of ex vivo material from human AD brain and that standardized A beta-derived diffusible ligand (ADDL) preparations disrupt hippocampal synaptic plasticity in a PrP-dependent manner. We screened a panel of anti-PrP antibodies for their ability to disrupt the ADDL-PrP interaction. Antibodies directed to the principal PrP/A beta-binding site and to PrP helix-1, were able to block A beta binding to PrP suggesting that the toxic A beta species are of relatively high molecular mass and/or may bind multiple PrP molecules. Two representative and extensively characterized monoclonal antibodies directed to these regions, ICSM-35 and ICSM-18, were shown to block the A beta-mediated disruption of synaptic plasticity validating these antibodies as candidate therapeutics for AD either individually or in combination