The Contribution of Social Transfers to the Reduction of Poverty

We interpret social transfers broadly as a set of measures to reduce or relieve poverty, and study how well this purpose is served in the countries that participated in the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions in 2007. Motivated by the findings, we characterise a social transfer system in a country by its potential and effectiveness, and compare the countries for a range of definitions of the poverty threshold. The methods are also applied to two subpopulations of household types.effectiveness of social transfers, equivalized household income, EU-SILC database, potential of social transfers, poverty gap

An alternative analysis of variance

The one-way analysis of variance is a staple of elementary statistics courses. The hypothesis test of homogeneity of the means encourages the use of the selected-model based estimators which are usually assessed without any regard for the uncertainty about the outcome of the test. We expose the weaknesses of such estimators when the uncertainty is taken into account, as it should be, and propose synthetic estimators as an alternative.Peer Reviewe

Small-sample inference about variance and its transformations

We discuss minimum mean squared error and Bayesian estimation of the variance and its common transformations in the setting of normality and homoscedasticity with small samples, for which asymptotics do not apply. We show that permitting some bias can be rewarded by greatly reduced mean squared error. We apply borderline and equilibrium priors. The purpose of these priors is to reduce the onus on the expert or client to specify a single prior distribution that would capture the information available prior to data inspection. Instead, the (parametric) class of all priors considered is partitioned to subsets that result in the preference for different actions. With the family of conjugate inverse gamma priors, this Bayesian approach can be formulated in the frequentist paradigm, describing the prior as being equivalent to additional observations.Peer Reviewe

A sensitivity analysis of poverty definitions

We conduct a sensitivity analysis of several estimators related to household income, to explore how some details of the definitions of the variables concerned influence the values of the common estimates, such as the mean, median and (poverty) rates. The purpose of this study is to highlight that some of the operational definitions entail an element of arbitrariness which leaves an undesirable stamp on the inferences made. The analyses use both a cross-sectional and a longitudinal (panel) component of the EU-SILC database.EU-SILC database, poverty rate, sampling weights

An alternative analysis of variance

The one-way analysis of variance is a staple of elementary statistics courses. The hypothesis test of homogeneity of the means encourages the use of the selected-model based estimators which are usually assessed without any regard for the uncertainty about the outcome of the test. We expose the weaknesses of such estimators when the uncertainty is taken into account, as it should be, and propose synthetic estimators as an alternative.Peer Reviewe

Stability of household income in European countries in the 1990's

This paper explores the patterns of change in the annual household income in the countries of the European Community during the years 1994-1999. The income is modelled by mixtures of multivariate log-normal distributions, and the mixture components are interpreted as representing one subpopulation with steady increments and others with various levels of volatility. The method is extended to models for a combination of log-normal and categorical variables. An index of income stability is defined for the countries. Throughout, we emphasize graphical summaries of the results.EM algorithm ; household income ; kernel estimation ; log-normal distribution ; mixture models

Multiple imputation in an international database of social science surveys

'In diesem Beitrag wird das Verfahren der multiplen Imputation anhand von Datensätzen aus dem International Social Survey Programme diskutiert. Da es in den meisten Variablen fehlende Werte gibt, die in vielen unterschiedlichen Kombinationen vorkommen, werden die Imputations in mehreren Schritten durchgeführt. Als erstes werden die Angaben bei den sozio-demografischen Merkmalen ersetzt, da es hier in der Regel nur relativ wenige fehlende Werte gibt. Bei Blöcken von Items werden nur deren Summenwerte geschätzt, was die Aufgabe der Imputation vereinfacht, ohne daß dabei auf wichtige Informationen verzichtet wird. Ein weiterer Vorteil dieser Vorgehensweise ist, daß die Anzahl der einzusetzenden Werte reduziert wird.' (Autorenreferat)'This paper describes an implementation of the method of multiple imputation in the database of surveys in the International Social Science Programme. Since missing values occur for most variables, with a wide range of patterns, the imputations are carried out in stages, starting with background variables which, in general, have fewer missing values. For blocks of questionnaire items only their total scores are imputed, making the imputation task manageable without substantial loss of utility of the database, and reducing the size of the data files added to the database by the imputation procedure.' (author's abstract)

A multi level model of school effectiveness in a developing country

What makes one school more effective than another - particularly which inputs and management practices most efficiently enhance student achievement - has become the center of lively debate in the literature. Which method to use to compare school effects particularly concerns analysts. The model developed by the authors is able to explain most variance between schools but significantly less within schools. Only one variable slope is observed: the relationship between educational aspirations and achievement. The authors apply multi level techniques to longitudinal data recently collected by the International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement in Thailand. One question they try to answer is : how do estimates obtained from the new multi level techniques compare with those obtained from ordinary regression models?Teaching and Learning,Gender and Education,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences,Educational Sciences

POLICY-ORIENTED INFERENCE AND THE ANALYST-CLIENT COOPERATION. AN EXAMPLE FROM SMALL-AREA STATISTICS

We show on an application to small-area statistics that efficient estimation is not always conducive to good policy decisions because the established inferential procedures have no capacity to incorporate the priorities and preferences of the policy makers and the related consequences of incorrect decisions. A method that addresses these deficiencies is described. We argue that elicitation of the perspectives of the client (sponsor) and their quantification are essential elements of the analysis because different estimators (decisions) are appropriate for different perspectives. An example of planning an intervention in a developing country's districts with high rate of illiteracy is described. The example exposes the deficiencies of the general concept of efficiency and shows that the criterion for the quality of an estimator has to be formulated specifically for the problem at hand. In the problem, the established small-area estimators perform poorly because the minimum mean squared error is an inappropriate criterion

Monitoring the university admissions process in Spain

The examinations taken by high-school graduates in Spain and the role of the examination in the university admissions process are described. The following issues arising in the assessment of the process are discussed: reliability of grading, comparability of the grades and scores(equating), maintenance of standards, and compilation and use of the grading process, and their integration in the operational grading are proposed. Various schemes for score adjustment are reviewed and feasibility of their implementation discussed. The advantages of pretesting of items and of empirical checks of experts' judgements are pointed out. The paper concludes with an outline of a planned reorganisation of the higher education in Spain, and with a call for a comprehensive programme of empirical research concurrent with the operation of the examination and scoring system.Admissions process, examinee's choice, pretesting, rater reliability, score adjustment