Summary results of the 2014-2015 DARPA Chikungunya challenge

BACKGROUND: Emerging pathogens such as Zika, chikungunya, Ebola, and dengue viruses are serious threats to national and global health security. Accurate forecasts of emerging epidemics and their severity are critical to minimizing subsequent mortality, morbidity, and economic loss. The recent introduction of chikungunya and Zika virus to the Americas underscores the need for better methods for disease surveillance and forecasting. METHODS: To explore the suitability of current approaches to forecasting emerging diseases, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) launched the 2014–2015 DARPA Chikungunya Challenge to forecast the number of cases and spread of chikungunya disease in the Americas. Challenge participants (n=38 during final evaluation) provided predictions of chikungunya epidemics across the Americas for a six-month period, from September 1, 2014 to February 16, 2015, to be evaluated by comparison with incidence data reported to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). This manuscript presents an overview of the challenge and a summary of the approaches used by the winners. RESULTS: Participant submissions were evaluated by a team of non-competing government subject matter experts based on numerical accuracy and methodology. Although this manuscript does not include in-depth analyses of the results, cursory analyses suggest that simpler models appear to outperform more complex approaches that included, for example, demographic information and transportation dynamics, due to the reporting biases, which can be implicitly captured in statistical models. Mosquito-dynamics, population specific information, and dengue-specific information correlated best with prediction accuracy. CONCLUSION: We conclude that with careful consideration and understanding of the relative advantages and disadvantages of particular methods, implementation of an effective prediction system is feasible. However, there is a need to improve the quality of the data in order to more accurately predict the course of epidemics

Whole-body tissue stabilization and selective extractions via tissue-hydrogel hybrids for high-resolution intact circuit mapping and phenotyping

To facilitate fine-scale phenotyping of whole specimens, we describe here a set of tissue fixation-embedding, detergent-clearing and staining protocols that can be used to transform excised organs and whole organisms into optically transparent samples within 1–2 weeks without compromising their cellular architecture or endogenous fluorescence. PACT (passive CLARITY technique) and PARS (perfusion-assisted agent release in situ) use tissue-hydrogel hybrids to stabilize tissue biomolecules during selective lipid extraction, resulting in enhanced clearing efficiency and sample integrity. Furthermore, the macromolecule permeability of PACT- and PARS-processed tissue hybrids supports the diffusion of immunolabels throughout intact tissue, whereas RIMS (refractive index matching solution) grants high-resolution imaging at depth by further reducing light scattering in cleared and uncleared samples alike. These methods are adaptable to difficult-to-image tissues, such as bone (PACT-deCAL), and to magnified single-cell visualization (ePACT). Together, these protocols and solutions enable phenotyping of subcellular components and tracing cellular connectivity in intact biological networks

Disease-specific variant pathogenicity prediction significantly improves variant interpretation in inherited cardiac conditions

Funder: Science and Technology Development Fund; doi: https://doi.org/10.13039/Funder: Al-Alfi FoundationFunder: Magdi Yacoub Heart FoundationFunder: Rosetrees and Stoneygate Imperial College Research FellowshipFunder: National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia)Abstract: Purpose: Accurate discrimination of benign and pathogenic rare variation remains a priority for clinical genome interpretation. State-of-the-art machine learning variant prioritization tools are imprecise and ignore important parameters defining gene–disease relationships, e.g., distinct consequences of gain-of-function versus loss-of-function variants. We hypothesized that incorporating disease-specific information would improve tool performance. Methods: We developed a disease-specific variant classifier, CardioBoost, that estimates the probability of pathogenicity for rare missense variants in inherited cardiomyopathies and arrhythmias. We assessed CardioBoost’s ability to discriminate known pathogenic from benign variants, prioritize disease-associated variants, and stratify patient outcomes. Results: CardioBoost has high global discrimination accuracy (precision recall area under the curve [AUC] 0.91 for cardiomyopathies; 0.96 for arrhythmias), outperforming existing tools (4–24% improvement). CardioBoost obtains excellent accuracy (cardiomyopathies 90.2%; arrhythmias 91.9%) for variants classified with >90% confidence, and increases the proportion of variants classified with high confidence more than twofold compared with existing tools. Variants classified as disease-causing are associated with both disease status and clinical severity, including a 21% increased risk (95% confidence interval [CI] 11–29%) of severe adverse outcomes by age 60 in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Conclusions: A disease-specific variant classifier outperforms state-of-the-art genome-wide tools for rare missense variants in inherited cardiac conditions (https://www.cardiodb.org/cardioboost/), highlighting broad opportunities for improved pathogenicity prediction through disease specificity

Disease-specific variant pathogenicity prediction significantly improves variant interpretation in inherited cardiac conditions

Funder: Science and Technology Development Fund; doi: https://doi.org/10.13039/Funder: Al-Alfi FoundationFunder: Magdi Yacoub Heart FoundationFunder: Rosetrees and Stoneygate Imperial College Research FellowshipFunder: National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia)Abstract: Purpose: Accurate discrimination of benign and pathogenic rare variation remains a priority for clinical genome interpretation. State-of-the-art machine learning variant prioritization tools are imprecise and ignore important parameters defining gene–disease relationships, e.g., distinct consequences of gain-of-function versus loss-of-function variants. We hypothesized that incorporating disease-specific information would improve tool performance. Methods: We developed a disease-specific variant classifier, CardioBoost, that estimates the probability of pathogenicity for rare missense variants in inherited cardiomyopathies and arrhythmias. We assessed CardioBoost’s ability to discriminate known pathogenic from benign variants, prioritize disease-associated variants, and stratify patient outcomes. Results: CardioBoost has high global discrimination accuracy (precision recall area under the curve [AUC] 0.91 for cardiomyopathies; 0.96 for arrhythmias), outperforming existing tools (4–24% improvement). CardioBoost obtains excellent accuracy (cardiomyopathies 90.2%; arrhythmias 91.9%) for variants classified with >90% confidence, and increases the proportion of variants classified with high confidence more than twofold compared with existing tools. Variants classified as disease-causing are associated with both disease status and clinical severity, including a 21% increased risk (95% confidence interval [CI] 11–29%) of severe adverse outcomes by age 60 in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Conclusions: A disease-specific variant classifier outperforms state-of-the-art genome-wide tools for rare missense variants in inherited cardiac conditions (https://www.cardiodb.org/cardioboost/), highlighting broad opportunities for improved pathogenicity prediction through disease specificity

Multi-ancestry genome-wide association meta-analysis of Parkinson?s disease

Although over 90 independent risk variants have been identified for Parkinson’s disease using genome-wide association studies, most studies have been performed in just one population at a time. Here we performed a large-scale multi-ancestry meta-analysis of Parkinson’s disease with 49,049 cases, 18,785 proxy cases and 2,458,063 controls including individuals of European, East Asian, Latin American and African ancestry. In a meta-analysis, we identified 78 independent genome-wide significant loci, including 12 potentially novel loci (MTF2, PIK3CA, ADD1, SYBU, IRS2, USP8, PIGL, FASN, MYLK2, USP25, EP300 and PPP6R2) and fine-mapped 6 putative causal variants at 6 known PD loci. By combining our results with publicly available eQTL data, we identified 25 putative risk genes in these novel loci whose expression is associated with PD risk. This work lays the groundwork for future efforts aimed at identifying PD loci in non-European populations

Defining the causes of sporadic Parkinson's disease in the global Parkinson's genetics program (GP2)

The Global Parkinson’s Genetics Program (GP2) will genotype over 150,000 participants from around the world, and integrate genetic and clinical data for use in large-scale analyses to dramatically expand our understanding of the genetic architecture of PD. This report details the workflow for cohort integration into the complex arm of GP2, and together with our outline of the monogenic hub in a companion paper, provides a generalizable blueprint for establishing large scale collaborative research consortia

Metal oxidation states in biological water splitting

A central question in biological water splitting concerns the oxidation states of the manganese ions that comprise the oxygen-evolving complex of photosystem II. Understanding the nature and order of oxidation events that occur during the catalytic cycle of five Si states (i = 0–4) is of fundamental importance both for the natural system and for artificial water oxidation catalysts. Despite the widespread adoption of the so-called “high-valent scheme”—where, for example, the Mn oxidation states in the S2 state are assigned as III, IV, IV, IV—the competing “low-valent scheme” that differs by a total of two metal unpaired electrons (i.e. III, III, III, IV in the S2 state) is favored by several recent studies for the biological catalyst. The question of the correct oxidation state assignment is addressed here by a detailed computational comparison of the two schemes using a common structural platform and theoretical approach. Models based on crystallographic constraints were constructed for all conceivable oxidation state assignments in the four (semi)stable S states of the oxygen evolving complex, sampling various protonation levels and patterns to ensure comprehensive coverage. The models are evaluated with respect to their geometric, energetic, electronic, and spectroscopic properties against available experimental EXAFS, XFEL-XRD, EPR, ENDOR and Mn K pre-edge XANES data. New 2.5 K 55Mn ENDOR data of the S2 state are also reported. Our results conclusively show that the entire S state phenomenology can only be accommodated within the high-valent scheme by adopting a single motif and protonation pattern that progresses smoothly from S0 (III, III, III, IV) to S3 (IV, IV, IV, IV), satisfying all experimental constraints and reproducing all observables. By contrast, it was impossible to construct a consistent cycle based on the low-valent scheme for all S states. Instead, the low-valent models developed here may provide new insight into the over-reduced S states and the states involved in the assembly of the catalytically active water oxidizing cluster