Impact of climate change on meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts in the Lower Mekong River Basin: a case study of the Srepok Basin, Vietnam

peer reviewedThe objective of this study is to assess future changes in meteorological, hydrology and agricultural droughts under the impact of changing climate in the Srepok River Basin, a subbasin of LMB, using three drought indices; standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized runoff index (SRI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSWI). The well-calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used as a simulation tool to estimate the features of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts. The climate data for the 2016–2040 period is obtained from four different regional climate models; HadGEM3-RA, SNU-MM5, RegCM4 and YSU-RSM, which are downscaled from the HadGEM2-AO GCM. The results show that the severity, duration and frequency of droughts are predicted to increase in the near future for this region. Moreover, the meteorological drought is less sensitive to climate change than the hydrological and agricultural droughts; however, it has a stronger correlation with the hydrological and agricultural droughts as the accumulation period is increased. These findings may be useful for water resources management and future planning for mitigation and adaptation to the climate change impact in the Srepok River Basin

Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts

As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions and feedbacks in complex human-water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e., two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed, and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises: 1) detailed review style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; 2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterise management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impacts of all events; 3) a table of the indicators-of-change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators-of-change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses e.g. focused on causal links between risk management, changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al. 2023, link for review: https://dataservices.gfz-potsdam.de/panmetaworks/review/923c14519deb04f83815ce108b48dd2581d57b90ce069bec9c948361028b8c85/).</p

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Evaluation of five gridded rainfall datasets in simulating streamflow in the upper Dong Nai river basin, Vietnam

Rainfall data with an appropriate spatial resolution is a key input to hydrological models. However, networks of rain gauges are often sparsely and unevenly distributed in large catchments, especially in developing countries. High-resolution rainfall datasets, such as the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE), the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the Climatic Research Unit Time Series (CRU-TS), the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), have become available to overcome such limitations. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impacts of four land-based rainfall products (APHRODITE, CFSR, CRU-TS, and GPCC) and a satellite-based rainfall product (TRMM) on streamflow of the upper catchment of Tri An reservoir in Vietnam using the Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS). In addition, the available rain gauges data were used for comparison purpose. Result indicates that the TRMM and GPCC data show their best match to rain gauges data in simulating the streamflow in the period 1999–2007. Generally, the results indicate that the TRMM and GPCC data could be alternative solutions

Impact of Climate Change on Precipitation Extremes over Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

In the context of climate change, the impact of hydro-meteorological extremes, such as floods and droughts, has become one of the most severe issues for the governors of mega-cities. The main purpose of this study is to assess the spatiotemporal changes in extreme precipitation indices over Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, between the near (2021–2050) and intermediate (2051–2080) future periods with respect to the baseline period (1980–2009). The historical extreme indices were calculated through observed daily rainfall data at 11 selected meteorological stations across the study area. The future extreme indices were projected based on a stochastic weather generator, the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG), which incorporates climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Eight extreme precipitation indices, such as the consecutive dry days (CDDs), consecutive wet days (CWDs), number of very heavy precipitation days (R20mm), number of extremely heavy precipitation days (R25mm), maximum 1 d precipitation amount (RX1day), maximum 5 d precipitation amount (RX5day), very wet days (R95p), and simple daily intensity index (SDII) were selected to evaluate the multi-model ensemble mean changes of extreme indices in terms of intensity, duration, and frequency. The statistical significance, stability, and averaged magnitude of trends in these changes, thereby, were computed by the Mann-Kendall statistical techniques and Sen’s estimator, and applied to each extreme index. The results indicated a general increasing trend in most extreme indices for the future periods. In comparison with the near future period (2021–2050), the extreme intensity and frequency indices in the intermediate future period (2051–2080) present more statistically significant trends and higher growing rates. Furthermore, an increase in most extreme indices mainly occurs in some parts of the central and southern regions, while a decrease in those indices is often projected in the north of the study area

Long-Term Effectiveness and Drug Survival of Secukinumab in Vietnamese Patients with Psoriasis: Results from a Retrospective ENHANCE Study

Abstract Introduction Psoriasis (PsO), an immune-mediated inflammatory skin disorder, has substantial negative impact on patients’ quality of life. Secukinumab, an approved treatment for moderate-to-severe plaque PsO, has an established long-term efficacy and safety profile. This study aims to provide real-world evidence of long-term effectiveness and retention rate of secukinumab in Vietnamese patients with PsO. Methods This retrospective, observational study collected medical records of adult patients with moderate-to-severe PsO receiving secukinumab treatment from Ho Chi Minh City Hospital of Dermato-Venereology. The primary objective was to evaluate secukinumab effectiveness in PsO as measured by 75% improvement in psoriasis area and severity index (PASI 75) at month 12. Secondary objectives were PASI 90/100, absolute PASI ≤ 3 and ≤ 5, Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI), and retention rate over 48 months. Results In total, 232 patients with moderate-to-severe PsO met inclusion criteria; 68.1% were male, with median age and age of onset of 39 and 27.5 years, respectively. Median time from onset of PsO to secukinumab treatment was 120 months, 95.3% were prior biologics/disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs naive and 41.4% received concomitant therapies for PsO; 82.3% had national insurance coverage. At month 12, 93.9% of patients achieved PASI 75 (primary endpoint); 80.2/56.9% achieved PASI 90/100; 91.4 and 84.8% patients achieved absolute PASI ≤ 5 and ≤ 3, respectively. The response was sustained over 48 months, with 91.9%/78.0%/52.0% of patients achieving PASI 75/90/100, 89.5% and 82.1% patients achieving absolute PASI ≤ 5 and ≤ 3, respectively. At month 12, 61.4% of patients achieved DLQI 0/1 which was sustained up to month 48 (69.2%). Secukinumab adherence rate of 84.9% at month 12 dropped to 34.2% at month 48. Patients receiving concomitant therapy and national insurance showed higher adherence rate. Conclusion Secukinumab demonstrated long-term effectiveness in real-world Vietnamese patients with moderate-to-severe PsO, with treatment adherence being higher in patients having concomitant therapies and national insurance

Using Machine Learning Models for Predicting the Water Quality Index in the La Buong River, Vietnam

For effective management of water quantity and quality, it is absolutely essential to estimate the pollution level of the existing surface water. This case study aims to evaluate the performance of twelve machine learning (ML) models, including five boosting-based algorithms (adaptive boosting, gradient boosting, histogram-based gradient boosting, light gradient boosting, and extreme gradient boosting), three decision tree-based algorithms (decision tree, extra trees, and random forest), and four ANN-based algorithms (multilayer perceptron, radial basis function, deep feed-forward neural network, and convolutional neural network), in estimating the surface water quality of the La Buong River in Vietnam. Water quality data at four monitoring stations alongside the La Buong River for the period 2010&ndash;2017 were utilized to calculate the water quality index (WQI). Prediction performance of the ML models was evaluated by using two efficiency statistics (i.e., R2 and RMSE). The results indicated that all twelve ML models have good performance in predicting the WQI but that extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) has the best performance with the highest accuracy (R2 = 0.989 and RMSE = 0.107). The findings strengthen the argument that ML models, especially XGBoost, may be employed for WQI prediction with a high level of accuracy, which will further improve water quality management

A Water Supply Pipeline Risk Analysis Methodology Based on DIY and Hierarchical Fuzzy Inference

The standard manufacturing organizations follow certain rules. The highest ubiquitous organizing principles in infrastructure design are modular idea and symmetry, both of which are of the utmost importance. Symmetry is a substantial principle in the manufacturing industry. Symmetrical procedures act as the structural apparatus for manufacturing design. The rapid growth of population needs outstrip infrastructure such as roads, bridges, railway lines, commercial, residential buildings, etc. Numerous underground facilities are also installed to fulfill different requirements of the people. In these facilities one of the most important facility is water supply pipelines. Therefore, it is essential to regularly analyze the water supply pipelines&rsquo; risk index in order to escape from economic and human losses. In this paper, we proposed a simplified hierarchical fuzzy logic (SHFL) model to reduce the set of rules. To this end, we have considered four essential factors of water supply pipelines as input to the proposed SHFL model that are: leakage, depth, length and age. Different numbers of membership functions are defined for each factor according to its distribution. The proposed SHFL model takes only 95 rules as compared to the traditional mamdani fuzzy logic method that requires 1225 rules. It is very hard and time consuming for experts to design 1225 rules accurately and precisely. Further, we proposed a Do-it-Yourself (DIY) system for the proposed SHFL method. The purpose of the DIY system is that one can design the FIS model according to his or her need

Uncertainty Assessment for Climate Change Impact on Streamflow and Water Quality in the Dong Nai River Basin, Vietnam

The aim of this study is to examine uncertainty in projections of streamflow and water quality (TSS load) under the impact of changing climate in the Dong Nai River Basin, which is one of most vulnerable areas to climate change in Vietnam. Uncertainty associated with different general circulation models (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, ISPL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR), emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), statistical downscaling techniques (delta change method, SDSM, and LARS-WG), and hydrological models (SWAT and HSPF) was considered. The results indicate that the largest uncertainty source is come from GCMs simulations, followed by the emission scenarios, statistical downscaling methods, and hydrological models. Consequently, it should pay more attention to apply different GCMs when implementing studies on the hydrological impact of changing climate.N