Human papillomavirus and survival of patients with oropharyngeal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Oropharyngeal squamous-cell carcinomas caused by human papillomavirus (HPV) are associated with favorable survival, but the independent prognostic significance of tumor HPV status remains unknown. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of the association between tumor HPV status and survival among patients with stage III or IV oropharyngeal squamous-cell carcinoma who were enrolled in a randomized trial comparing accelerated-fractionation radiotherapy (with acceleration by means of concomitant boost radiotherapy) with standard-fractionation radiotherapy, each combined with cisplatin therapy, in patients with squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck. Proportional-hazards models were used to compare the risk of death among patients with HPV-positive cancer and those with HPV-negative cancer. RESULTS: The median follow-up period was 4.8 years. The 3-year rate of overall survival was similar in the group receiving accelerated-fractionation radiotherapy and the group receiving standard-fractionation radiotherapy (70.3% vs. 64.3%; P=0.18; hazard ratio for death with accelerated-fractionation radiotherapy, 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72 to 1.13), as were the rates of high-grade acute and late toxic events. A total of 63.8% of patients with oropharyngeal cancer (206 of 323) had HPV-positive tumors; these patients had better 3-year rates of overall survival (82.4%, vs. 57.1% among patients with HPV-negative tumors; P\u3c0.001 by the log-rank test) and, after adjustment for age, race, tumor and nodal stage, tobacco exposure, and treatment assignment, had a 58% reduction in the risk of death (hazard ratio, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.27 to 0.66). The risk of death significantly increased with each additional pack-year of tobacco smoking. Using recursive-partitioning analysis, we classified our patients as having a low, intermediate, or high risk of death on the basis of four factors: HPV status, pack-years of tobacco smoking, tumor stage, and nodal stage. CONCLUSIONS: Tumor HPV status is a strong and independent prognostic factor for survival among patients with oropharyngeal cancer. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00047008.

Development and Validation of Nomograms Predictive of Overall and Progression-Free Survival in Patients With Oropharyngeal Cancer

Purpose Treatment of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) is evolving toward risk-based modification of therapeutic intensity, which requires patient-specific estimates of overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Methods To develop and validate nomograms for OS and PFS, we used a derivation cohort of 493 patients with OPSCC with known p16 tumor status (surrogate of human papillomavirus) and cigarette smoking history (pack-years) randomly assigned to clinical trials using platinum-based chemoradiotherapy (NRG Oncology Radiation Therapy Oncology Group [RTOG] 0129 and 0522). Nomograms were created from Cox models and internally validated by use of bootstrap and cross-validation. Model discrimination was measured by calibration plots and the concordance index. Nomograms were externally validated in a cohort of 153 patients with OPSCC randomly assigned to a third trial, NRG Oncology RTOG 9003. Results Both models included age, Zubrod performance status, pack-years, education, p16 status, and T and N stage; the OS model also included anemia and age × pack-years interaction; and the PFS model also included marital status, weight loss, and p16 × Zubrod interaction. Predictions correlated well with observed 2-year and 5-year outcomes. The uncorrected concordance index was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.80) for OS and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.66 to 0.74) for PFS, and bias-corrected indices were similar. In the validation set, OS and PFS models were well calibrated, and OS and PFS were significantly different across tertiles of nomogram scores (log-rank P = .003;\u3c .001). Conclusion The validated nomograms provided useful prediction of OS and PFS for patients with OPSCC treated with primary radiation-based therapy

Risk stratification after recurrence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related and non-HPV-related oropharyngeal cancer: Secondary analysis of NRG Oncology RTOG 0129 and 0522.

BACKGROUND: No risk-stratification strategies exist for patients with recurrent oropharyngeal cancer (OPC). METHODS: Retrospective analysis using data from prospective NRG Oncology clinical trials RTOG 0129 and 0522. Eligibility criteria included known p16 status and smoking history, and locoregional/distant recurrence. Overall survival (OS) was measured from date of recurrence. Recursive partitioning analysis was performed to produce mutually exclusive risk groups. RESULTS: Hundred and fifty-four patients were included with median follow-up after recurrence of 3.9 years (range 0.04-9.0). The most important factors influencing survival were p16 status and type of recurrence, followed by surgical salvage and smoking history (≤20 vs. \u3e20 pack-years). Three significantly different risk groups were identified. Patients in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups had 2-year OS after recurrence of 81.1% (95%CI 68.5-93.7), 50.2% (95%CI 36.0-64.5), and 20.8% (95%CI 10.5-31.1), respectively. CONCLUSION: Patient and tumor characteristics may be used to stratify patients into risk groups at the time of OPC recurrence

Validation of NRG oncology/RTOG‐0129 risk groups for HPV‐positive and HPV‐negative oropharyngeal squamous cell cancer: Implications for risk‐based therapeutic intensity trials

BackgroundRadiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG)-0129 recursive partitioning analysis was the basis for risk-based therapeutic intensification trials for oropharyngeal cancer (OPC). To the authors' knowledge, the question of whether RTOG-0129 overall survival (OS) estimates for low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups are similar in other data sets or applicable to progression-free survival (PFS) is unknown. Therefore, the authors evaluated whether survival differences between RTOG-0129 risk groups persist at 5 years, are reproducible in an independent clinical trial, and are applicable to PFS, and whether toxicities differ across risk groups.MethodsProspective randomized clinical trials were analyzed retrospectively. RTOG-0129 evaluated standard versus accelerated fractionation radiotherapy concurrent with cisplatin. RTOG-0522 compared the combination of cisplatin and accelerated fractionation with or without cetuximab. Patients with OPC with available p16 status and tobacco history were eligible.ResultsThere was a total of 260 patients and 287 patients, respectively, from RTOG-0129 and RTOG-0522, with median follow-ups for surviving patients of 7.9 years (range, 1.7-9.9 years) and 4.7 years (range, 0.1-7.0 years), respectively. Previous OS differences in RTOG-0129 persisted at 5 years. In RTOG-0522, the 5-year OS rates for the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups were 88.1%, 69.9%, and 45.1%, respectively (P for trend, <.001). The 5-year PFS rates for the same 3 groups were 72.9%, 56.1%, and 42.2%, respectively. In RTOG-0522 among a subgroup of patients considered to be at very good risk (p16-positive disease, smoking history of ≤10 pack-years, and classified with T1-T2 disease with ipsilateral lymph nodes measuring ≤6 cm or T3 disease without contralateral or >6 cm lymph nodes), the 5-year OS and PFS rates were 93.8% and 82.2%, respectively. Overall rates of acute and late toxicities were similar by risk group.ConclusionsRTOG-0129 risk groups persisted at 5 years and were reproducible in RTOG-0522. However, there was variability in the estimates. These data underscore the importance of long-term follow-up and appropriate patient selection in therapeutic deintensification trials

Nomogram to Predict the Benefit of Intensive Treatment for Locoregionally Advanced Head and Neck Cancer

PurposePrevious studies indicate that the benefit of therapy depends on patients' risk for cancer recurrence relative to noncancer mortality (ω ratio). We sought to test the hypothesis that patients with head and neck cancer (HNC) with a higher ω ratio selectively benefit from intensive therapy.Experimental designWe analyzed 2,688 patients with stage III-IVB HNC undergoing primary radiotherapy (RT) with or without systemic therapy on three phase III trials (RTOG 9003, RTOG 0129, and RTOG 0522). We used generalized competing event regression to stratify patients according to ω ratio and compared the effectiveness of intensive therapy as a function of predicted ω ratio (i.e., ω score). Intensive therapy was defined as treatment on an experimental arm with altered fractionation and/or multiagent concurrent systemic therapy. A nomogram was developed to predict patients' ω score on the basis of tumor, demographic, and health factors. Analysis was by intention to treat.ResultsDecreasing age, improved performance status, higher body mass index, node-positive status, P16-negative status, and oral cavity primary predicted a higher ω ratio. Patients with ω score ≥0.80 were more likely to benefit from intensive treatment [5-year overall survival (OS), 70.0% vs. 56.6%; HR of 0.73, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.57-0.94; P = 0.016] than those with ω score <0.80 (5-year OS, 46.7% vs. 45.3%; HR of 1.02, 95% CI: 0.92-1.14; P = 0.69; P = 0.019 for interaction). In contrast, the effectiveness of intensive therapy did not depend on risk of progression.ConclusionsPatients with HNC with a higher ω score selectively benefit from intensive treatment. A nomogram was developed to help select patients for intensive therapy

The impact of age on outcome in phase III NRG Oncology/RTOG trials of radiotherapy (XRT) +/− systemic therapy in locally advanced head and neck cancer

PurposeTo examine the role age plays in the treatment and prognosis of locally advanced head and neck cancer (LAHNC) treated definitively with radiation alone or combined modality therapy.MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed of three NRG/RTOG trials examining either radiation alone or combined radiation and systemic therapy for LAHNC. The effect of age (≥70 yrs.) on cause-specific survival (CSS), overall survival (OS), and toxicity was evaluated.ResultsA total of 2688 patients were analyzed, of whom 309 patients (11.5%) were ≥ 70. For all studies combined, the hazard ratio (HR) for CSS for patients age ≥ 70 vs. those <70 was 1.33 (95%CI: 1.14-1.55, p < 0.001). For OS, the HR for patients age ≥ 70 vs. those <70 for all studies combined was 1.55 (95% CI 1.35-1.77, p < 0.001). After adjustment for all covariates, age ≥ 70 was associated with worse OS regardless of adjustment for smoking and p16 status. The survival difference was more pronounced in those receiving combined radiation and systemic therapy. Hematologic and renal toxicities were increased in combined modality trials in patients ≥70 years old.ConclusionsPatients age ≥ 70 with LAHNC were underrepresented in these clinical trials. Their CSS and OS proved inferior to patients <70 years old