Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For schoolaged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit

Global variations in diabetes mellitus based on fasting glucose and haemogloblin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but may identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening had elevated FPG, HbA1c, or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardised proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed, and detected in survey screening, ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the agestandardised proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global gap in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance.peer-reviewe

A Large Thyroid Fine Needle Aspiration Biopsy Cohort with Long-Term Population-Based Follow-Up

Background: Prior studies evaluating thyroid fine needle aspiration biopsies (FNABs) have limited the calculation of risk of malignancy (ROM) to cytologic specimens with corresponding histologic specimens, and clinical follow-up for those patients who do not undergo immediate surgery has been largely disregarded. Moreover, there is marked variability in how researchers have approached thyroid FNAB statistical analyses. This study addresses the urgent need for information from a large cohort of patients with long-term clinical follow-up to more accurately determine the performance of thyroid FNAB and ROM for each diagnostic category. Methods: A retrospective review of the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), pathology database for thyroid FNABs from January 1, 1997, to December 31, 2004, was performed. Diagnoses were coded using the 2017 The Bethesda System for Reporting Thyroid Cytopathology (TBSRTC), and patients were matched to both the UCSF cancer registry and California Cancer Registry. Data were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method, and stratified by TBSRTC diagnostic category. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate incidence rates of malignancy, stratified by FNAB category. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the instantaneous ROM. Results: Initial FNABs from 2207 patients were included. Median follow-up period after the first thyroid FNAB was 13.9 years (range: 10.5-18.4 years). During follow-up, there were 279 confirmed diagnoses of thyroid malignancy. Estimates derived from Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated that the risk of having a thyroid malignancy was low for nondiagnostic and benign categories, intermediate for atypia of undetermined significance (AUS), follicular lesion of undetermined significance (FLUS), AUS/FLUS combined, and follicular neoplasm, and high for suspicious and malignant categories. A total of 52/1575 false-negative cases (3.2%) were identified. Excluding papillary microcarcinomas, the false-negative rate was 1.5% (23/1575). No patients with a false-negative diagnosis died of thyroid cancer during the follow-up period. Conclusions: Asymptomatic patients with low-risk clinical and radiologic features and initially benign or unsatisfactory biopsy are unlikely to develop thyroid malignancy and highly unlikely to die of thyroid cancer. FNAB is highly accurate in detecting malignancy. Additional studies evaluating similar large data sets after the adoption of TBSRTC and the integration of molecular testing are needed

Evaluating Estrogen Receptor Immunohistochemistry on Cell Blocks From Breast Cancer Patients in a Low-Resource Setting.

Context.—Breast cancer biomarker assessment is critical in determining treatment and prognosis. In Tanzania, immunohistochemistry (IHC) is limited to surgical specimens and core biopsies. However, performing IHC on fine-needle aspiration biopsy cell blocks would offer numerous advantages.Objective.—To compare the performance between estrogen receptor (ER) IHC performed at Muhimbili National Hospital (MNH) in Tanzania and ER IHC performed at University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), to demonstrate feasibility of performing IHC using cell blocks in Tanzania.Design.—Patients with breast masses were recruited prospectively from the fine-needle aspiration biopsy clinic at MNH. Estrogen receptor IHC results on cell blocks, performed at both MNH and UCSF, and corresponding tissue blocks, performed at MNH, were compared to determine concordance.Results.—Eighty-six cell blocks were evaluated by ER IHC at MNH, with 41 of 86 (47.7%) positive and 45 of 86 (52.3%) negative. Among 65 UCSF and MNH cell block pairs, overall ER IHC concordance was 93.8% (61 of 65) and positive concordance was 93.5% (29 of 31) (κ = 0.88, P > .99). Among 43 paired UCSF cell blocks and MNH tissue blocks, overall ER IHC concordance was 88.3% (38 of 43) and positive concordance was 90.5% (19 of 21) (κ = 0.77, P > .99). We compared 62 MNH cell block and tissue block pairs. Overall ER IHC concordance was 90.3% and positive concordance was 87.9% (κ = 0.81, P = .69).Conclusions.—Pairwise comparisons between ER IHC at MNH, on cell blocks and tissue blocks, with ER IHC at UCSF on cell blocks showed excellent concordance. We demonstrate that ER IHC on fine-needle aspiration biopsy specimens can be implemented in resource-constrained settings