Can Credit Default Swaps Predict Financial Crises: An Empirical Test on Emerging Markets

We explore the informational value of credit default swaps and the extent to which they may be linked to financial crises. After developing a theoretical framework to model the relationship between credit default swap market and equity and currency markets, we apply an empirical study which uses logistic regressions and a panel data sample of emerging markets to assess the ability of these financial instruments to predict crises. Regarding them as reflections of future expectations of investors on the outcomes of currency and equity markets, we find credit default swaps to be a significant indicator explaining the periods proceeding financial crises, at least in equity markets. The inclusion of credit default swaps as a factor in models that predict crises and their ability to improve predictions in equity market is a major contribution of this study to the existing literature.Credit Default Swaps; Stock Market Crises; Currency Crises; Emerging Market Debt

CAN CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS PREDICT FINANCIAL CRISES? EMPIRICAL STUDY ON EMERGING MARKETS

We explore the informational value of credit default swaps and the extent to which they may be linked to financial crises. After developing a theoretical framework to model the relationship between credit default swap market and equity and currency markets, we apply an empirical study which uses logistic regressions and a panel data sample of emerging markets to assess the ability of these financial instruments to predict crises. Regarding them as reflections of future expectations of investors on the outcomes of currency and equity markets, we find credit default swaps to be a significant indicator explaining the periods proceeding financial crises, at least in equity markets. The inclusion of credit default swaps as a factor in models that predict crises and their ability to improve predictions in equity market is a major contribution of this study to the existing literature.credit default swaps, stock market crises, currency crises, emerging market debt

Sports sponsorship as a means of internationalisation : Creating business opportunities within networks

The objective of this study was to examine the effect sponsorship networks have on the internationalisation process of B2B companies by utilising the ARA model. The chosen research method was a multiple case study, and the research data was gathered by conducting semi-structured interviews with representatives of each case company. The case companies were Finnish companies operating in various B2B industries and each company had some form of international presence prior to this study. The results show that sponsorship networks facilitate the internationalisation of B2B companies in many ways. Relationships with different actors resulted in the actors learning about each other and themselves resulting in an improved understanding of international business opportunities. The exchange of various types of knowledge concerning, for example, market-specific knowledge, technological knowledge, or knowledge about customers, was also a crucial component in these relationships and enabled the companies to explore and exploit opportunities. This knowledge also resulted in the companies adapting their activities to facilitate better exploitation of international business opportunities. The networks also increased the credibility of the case companies, which acted as an important facilitator of new international opportunities. Furthermore, the credibility was sometimes the result of other actors associating certain aspects of the sports organisation to the case companies. Through the networks, the case companies were also able to develop entirely unique resources which led to them being a preferred partner to other international actors within the network. This study contributed to the existing theory by expanding the network approach to sponsorship into the context of internationalisation, and many findings from earlier empirical research were supported. In addition, many managerial contributions were formulated from the viewpoint of the company and the sports organisation. Companies should seek to leverage the network by accessing important resources and developing their own activities, while sports organisations should utilise the range of their network as a selling point while also developing it. Further research should seek to examine the internationalisation of a single company more closely to enable the evaluation of this study’s findings as a part of a complete internationalisation process. In addition, future research should also aim to test the findings and theories using quantitative methods.Tämän tutkimuksen tavoite oli tarkastella sponsoriverkostojen vaikutusta B2B-yritysten kansainvälistymiseen hyödyntäen ARA-mallia. Tutkimus toteutettiin hyödyntäen useaa tapaustutkimusta, ja tutkimusaineisto kerättiin suorittamalla teemahaastattelu jokaisen tutkimuksen kohteena olleen yrityksen edustajan kanssa. Tutkimuksen kohteena oli kolme suomalaista yritystä eri aloilta, ja jokaisella yrityksellä oli jonkinlaisia kansainvälisiä toimintoja jo ennestään. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat, että sponsoriverkostot voivat edesauttaa B2B-yritysten kansainvälistymstä monin eri tavoin. Verkoston toimijat oppivat kriittisiä asioita itsestään ja muista toimijoista solmimiensa suhteiden ansiosta, mikä johti parempaan käsitykseen kansainvälisistä liiketoimintamahdollisuuksista. Erilaisen tiedon vaihto toimijoiden kesken oli myös keskeinen osa näissä suhteissa ja ne auttoivat yrityksiä tunnistamaan ja hyödyntämään kansainvälisiä mahdollisuuksia. Tämä tieto edesauttoi myös yritysten toiminnan kehittämistä, mikä mahdollisti liiketoimintamahdollisuuksien paremman hyödyntämisen. Verkostossa toimiminen kasvatti myös yritysten uskottavuutta, mikä omalta osaltaan edesauttoi kansainvälisten liiketoimintamahdollisuuksien syntymistä. Tämä uskottavuus saattoi pohjautua urheiluorganisaation piirteisiin, joita muut toimijat assosioivat myös yritykseen pelkästään toimijoiden välisen suhteen takia. Tutkimuksen yritykset pystyivät myös kehittämään harvinaisia resursseja toimimalla verkostossa, mikä teki heistä houkuttelevan yhteistyökumppanin muille verkoston toimijoille. Tämä tutkimus edisti nykyistä sponsoroinnin verkostoteoriaa käsittelemällä aihetta kansainvälistymisen näkökulmasta. Tutkimuksen tulokset tukivat suurilta osin useita sponsoroinnin ja kansainvälistymisen aikaisempia empiirisiä tutkimuksia. Lisäksi tutkimus johti useisiin käytännön toimenpide-ehdotuksiin. Yritysten tulisi hyödyntää verkostojen tarjoamia resursseja ja kehitysmahdollisuuksia, kun taas urheiluorganisaatioiden tulisi käyttää verkostotoimintaa myynnin välineenä samalla pyrkien kehittämään sitä. Jatkotutkimusten tulisi tarkastella kansainvälistymistä tarkemmin yhden yrityksen näkökulmasta, jotta tämän tutkimuksen johtopäätöksiä voidaan analysoida tarkemmin osana kokonaista kansainvälistymisprosessia. Jatkotutkimuksen tulisi myös pyrkiä testaamaan näitä johtopäätöksiä ja tässä tutkimuksessa esiteltyjä teorioita käyttäen kvantitatiivisia menetelmiä

Çmenduria e luftës në “Yçkla-22”

Koncepti i luftës është i gjerë. Ajo mund të përkufizohet në shumë rrafshe politike, filozfike, sociologjike dhe letrare. Edhe pse përcaktimi i luftës është mbrujtur dhe trajtuar nga shumë shkrimtarë në mbarë botën. Artikulli im do të fokusohet në përshkrimin se si shkrimtari pasmodern amerikan Xhozef Heller i jep luftës. Çmenduria dhe kotësia e luftës është gjëja e parë që vëmë re në ktë roman. Romani i Hellerit ndërfut humorin e zi, i cili u bë i njohur në vitet 1960, i cili u përdor për të përballuar me sa me pak trysni të gjithë tensionet e saj periudhe. Si për pasojë ka shumë elementë që rrjedhin nga burokracia duke përfituar nga të dobëtit. Si përfundim ky artikull do të trajtojë temen e luftës dhe pasojat e saj në botën absurde modern

EU Trends on Pension Developments and Challenges for Macedonian Pension System

The European Union (EU) itself is facing many demographic challenges, mobility, migration, and unemployment, all of these important factors in defining pension policies. This issue is today part of academic debates, government policies and discussions in international forums, and the concern of international organizations to find a more appropriate pension system that will face the challenges of today's world. Macedonia, as a candidate country for EU membership, has similar problems with regard to pension policies in general, and recently faces major challenges regarding the stability of the pension system. On the one hand, it is trying to harmonize the national legislations in this area with EU legislation; while on the other hand, it must take care of the stability of the system as the result of demographic changes. The paper tends to analyse the trends of pension policy development in EU member states, then pension system of Macedonia. In the framework of the research there are used descriptive method, method of analysis, comparative method and interview analysis. While results should serve the academic community, students and political stakeholders in finding the most appropriate solution, in accordance with real possibilities, as well as to encourage debate and further studies

Effects of Western Spruce Budworm Herbivory on Forest Soils and Litter Decomposition in Central Washington

Disturbances by herbivores can drive nutrient cycling in forest ecosystems by adding frass, carcasses, and molts to the forest floor which are broken down into nitrogen, phosphorous, and other elements to be recycled into biomass. Western spruce budworms are defoliators native to the central Cascades and their herbivory could increase the decomposition rate of forest materials by adding essential nutrients and/or by increasing light and rainfall penetration to the forest floor by thinning the forest canopy during outbreaks. Budworm defoliation events are expected to increase in severity as the climate warms, potentially altering forest ecosystem function. The purpose of this study was to measure how budworms influence nutrient availability in forest throughfall, decomposition rate on the floor, and soil nutrient concentrations by sampling 4 sites with low budworm activity and 4 sites with high budworm activity from September 2015 through November 2016. Budworms appeared to accelerate ammonium and nitrate loss from the canopy via throughfall during the spring 2016 feeding season, yet those forms of nitrogen did not increase concurrently in soils suggesting rapid immobilization of nitrogen. In contrast, budworms did not influence throughfall phosphorous yet soils in budworm sites had significantly higher phosphorus concentrations, possibly due to frass addition or dead adults. Decomposition rates were unexpectedly faster in the low budworm sites in the Teanaway suggesting that the nitrogen losses and/or canopy changes by budworms were not strong enough to influence forest floor organic matter cycling. Overall, my study shows that budworms can influence nitrogen movement from the canopy to soils during feeding, but much of that nitrogen appears to be immobilized in soils. Other environmental factors must control litter decomposition rates. Due to the short term nature of this study, I cannot conclude whether or not the ecological effect of budworms changes during the course of an outbreak; however, if budworm activity increases due to continued fire suppression and climate change, budworms could accelerate nitrogen losses from the canopy which could be lost to downstream ecosystems with a large or prolonged outbreak

Structural types of sentences in Kosovo police communication centers

In this paper it will be analyzed grammatical and dialectal aspect of structural sentences of Albanian language used in six Kosovo Police Communication Centers. This paper includes: types of sentences used in Communication Centers separately; enhancing sentences, declarative sentences, declarative-exclamatory sentences and declarative-imperative; imperative sentences; - affirmative and negative sentences. All sections of this paper are illustrated with tables and charts, including number of used sentences and percentage of usage, to present the current situation of use of structural types of sentences in the Kosovo Police Communication Centers. Based on the results from six Communication Centers, which we have analyzed and treated separately, we have come to conclusions of the analysis of the grammatical and dialectal aspects. In Kosovo Police Communication Centers, within the category of declarative sentences, we find positive and negative sentences, which are formed by positive and negative particles, as: Poziiv (Positive), Negativ (Negative), Negativ niher (Negative for now), Po (Yes), Jo (No), veç çka po vrehet n’pamje t’jashtme (only what can be seen from outside), etc. In six Kosovo Police Communication Centers, the affirmative sentences are mainly formed through affirmative particles, as: pozitiv (positive), pranim (copy), po, po – po (yes, yeas – yes), u ba (done), ani faleminderit (OK thank you), n’rregull (alright), e kjart osht n’rregull (it’s clear alright), u kry (done), etc

Evaluation of Public Administration Reforms in North Macedonia from the perspective of European Commission’s Annual Progress Reports

Public administration of the Republic of North Macedonia is constantly under evaluation in the Annual Progress Reports prepared by the European Commission. The main recommendations from the European Commission refer to the systematic change of laws, but there is no argument as to how these changes will contribute to the elimination of fundamental problems. Although a considerable number of laws have been ammended and accepted under the motto of reforms, all of them lack the result, which is the creation of a public administration that is able to satisfy the needs of a democratic country. This paper analyzes all the European Commission’s Annual Progress Reports of the 2005-2021 period and their recommendations. The finding is that there are repetitions of the same shortcomings in almost all Annual Progress Reports. This leads to the conclusion that the reforms are unsuccessful – they are misused either for political needs, or are applied selectively. The support of the political opposition should be sought to assure that there is any real progress. This is possible only if all the politicians gain the conviction that the reforms are in the service of the citizens and not of the political conjunctures in power. There is still a lot of work to be done to improve the country’s image on the road to the EU, while the challenges related to the public administration reform must be seriously addressed by all decision-making structures

RULE OF LAW IN THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA OVER THE LAST DECADE EVALUATED BY INTERNATIONAL AUTHORITIES

As the Republic of Macedonia (RM) is on its way to the European Union (EU), we consider it important to analyze the level of rule of law as one of the preconditions for membership. The issue of rule of law in the RM has been debated by other scholars over the years, but not from a ten-year perspective involving the evaluation of relevant international authorities. The purpose of this research paper is to analyze the shortcomings in the functioning of the rule of law in RM. As a framework of this research, the relevant data on the rule of law in the countries of Southeast Europe, the annual progress reports of the European Commission on the rule of law in the RM, the evaluations of other international actors, the results of previous research, such as government documents and institutional reforms devoted to the rule of law are used. The critical assessment of the functioning of the rule of law in the RM in this research should create a positive and motivating effect for the political authorities to reform the justice system in accordance with the needs of the citizens and the key Euro-integration processes. Finally, we will draw conclusions and make suggestions to serve the wider academic community, policymakers, and stakeholders who may raise issues as a problem that requires appropriate treatment