A Comparison of Marginal Likelihood Computation Methods

In a Bayesian analysis, different models can be compared on the basis of theexpected or marginal likelihood they attain. Many methods have been devised to compute themarginal likelihood, but simplicity is not the strongest point of most methods. At the sametime, the precision of methods is often questionable.In this paper several methods are presented in a common framework. The explanation of thedifferences is followed by an application, in which the precision of the methods is testedon a simple regression model where a comparison with analytical results is possible

Birthweight and risk markers for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease in childhood: the Child Heart and Health Study in England (CHASE).

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Lower birthweight (a marker of fetal undernutrition) is associated with higher risks of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD) and could explain ethnic differences in these diseases. We examined associations between birthweight and risk markers for diabetes and CVD in UK-resident white European, South Asian and black African-Caribbean children. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study of risk markers for diabetes and CVD in 9- to 10-year-old children of different ethnic origins, birthweight was obtained from health records and/or parental recall. Associations between birthweight and risk markers were estimated using multilevel linear regression to account for clustering in children from the same school. RESULTS: Key data were available for 3,744 (66%) singleton study participants. In analyses adjusted for age, sex and ethnicity, birthweight was inversely associated with serum urate and positively associated with systolic BP. After additional height adjustment, lower birthweight (per 100 g) was associated with higher serum urate (0.52%; 95% CI 0.38, 0.66), fasting serum insulin (0.41%; 95% CI 0.08, 0.74), HbA1c (0.04%; 95% CI 0.00, 0.08), plasma glucose (0.06%; 95% CI 0.02, 0.10) and serum triacylglycerol (0.30%; 95% CI 0.09, 0.51) but not with BP or blood cholesterol. Birthweight was lower among children of South Asian (231 g lower; 95% CI 183, 280) and black African-Caribbean origin (81 g lower; 95% CI 30, 132). However, adjustment for birthweight had no effect on ethnic differences in risk markers. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Birthweight was inversely associated with urate and with insulin and glycaemia after adjustment for current height. Lower birthweight does not appear to explain emerging ethnic difference in risk markers for diabetes

Maternal corticotropin-releasing hormone is associated with LEP DNA methylation at birth and in childhood: an epigenome-wide study in Project Viva

BackgroundCorticotropin-releasing hormone (CRH) plays a central role in regulating the secretion of cortisol which controls a wide range of biological processes. Fetuses overexposed to cortisol have increased risks of disease in later life. DNA methylation may be the underlying association between prenatal cortisol exposure and health effects. We investigated associations between maternal CRH levels and epigenome-wide DNA methylation of cord blood in offsprings and evaluated whether these associations persisted into mid-childhood.MethodsWe investigated mother-child pairs enrolled in the prospective Project Viva pre-birth cohort. We measured DNA methylation in 257 umbilical cord blood samples using the HumanMethylation450 Bead Chip. We tested associations of maternal CRH concentration with cord blood cells DNA methylation, adjusting the model for maternal age at enrollment, education, maternal race/ethnicity, maternal smoking status, pre-pregnancy body mass index, parity, gestational age at delivery, child sex, and cell-type composition in cord blood. We further examined the persistence of associations between maternal CRH levels and DNA methylation in children's blood cells collected at mid-childhood (n = 239, age: 6.7-10.3 years) additionally adjusting for the children's age at blood drawn.ResultsMaternal CRH levels are associated with DNA methylation variability in cord blood cells at 96 individual CpG sites (False Discovery Rate <0.05). Among the 96 CpG sites, we identified 3 CpGs located near the LEP gene. Regional analyses confirmed the association between maternal CRH and DNA methylation near LEP. Moreover, higher maternal CRH levels were associated with higher blood-cell DNA methylation of the promoter region of LEP in mid-childhood (P < 0.05, β = 0.64, SE = 0.30).ConclusionIn our cohort, maternal CRH was associated with DNA methylation levels in newborns at multiple loci, notably in the LEP gene promoter. The association between maternal CRH and LEP DNA methylation levels persisted into mid-childhood

A Perturbation Method for Inverse Scattering in Three-Dimensions Based on the Exact Inverse Scattering Equations

The detection and characterization of macroscopic flaws, such as cracks in solids are fundamental goals of nondestructive evaluation. Many inspection methods use scattered electromagnetic or ultrasonic waves. These methods rely explicitly on the development of inverse scattering theory. This theory seeks to determine the geometrical and material properties of flaws from scattering data

Perceptions of consent, permission structures and approaches to the community: a rapid ethical assessment performed in North West Cameroon

BACKGROUND Understanding local contextual factors is important when conducting international collaborative studies in low-income country settings. Rapid ethical assessment (a brief qualitative intervention designed to map the ethical terrain of a research setting prior to recruitment of participants), has been used in a range of research-naïve settings. We used rapid ethical assessment to explore ethical issues and challenges associated with approaching communities and gaining informed consent in North West Cameroon. METHODS This qualitative study was carried out in two health districts in the North West Region of Cameroon between February and April 2012. Eleven focus group discussions (with a total of 107 participants) were carried out among adult community members, while 72 in-depth interviews included health workers, non-government organisation staff and local community leaders. Data were collected in English and pidgin, translated where necessary into English, transcribed and coded following themes. RESULTS Many community members had some understanding of informed consent, probably through exposure to agricultural research in the past. Participants described a centralised permission-giving structure in their communities, though there was evidence of some subversion of these structures by the educated young and by women. Several acceptable routes for approaching the communities were outlined, all including the health centre and the Fon (traditional leader). The importance of time spent in sensitizing the community and explaining information was stressed. CONCLUSIONS Respondents held relatively sophisticated understanding of consent and were able to outline the structures of permission-giving in the community. Although the structures are unique to these communities, the role of certain trusted groups is common to several other communities in Kenya and Ethiopia explored using similar techniques. The information gained through Rapid Ethical Assessment will form an important guide for future studies in North West Cameroon

The Diagnostic Potential of Fe Lines Applied to Protostellar Jets

We investigate the diagnostic capabilities of iron lines for tracing the physical conditions of shock-excited gas in jets driven by pre-main sequence stars. We have analyzed the 3000-25000 \uc5, X-shooter spectra of two jets driven by the pre-main sequence stars ESO-H\u3b1 574 and Par-Lup 3-4. Both spectra are very rich in [Fe II] lines over the whole spectral range; in addition, lines from [Fe III] are detected in the ESO-H\u3b1 574 spectrum. Non-local thermal equilibrium codes solving the equations of the statistical equilibrium along with codes for the ionization equilibrium are used to derive the gas excitation conditions of electron temperature and density and fractional ionization. An estimate of the iron gas-phase abundance is provided by comparing the iron lines emissivity with that of neutral oxygen at 6300 \uc5. The [Fe II] line analysis indicates that the jet driven by ESO-H\u3b1 574 is, on average, colder (T e 3c 9000 K), less dense (n e 3c 2 7 104 cm-3), and more ionized (x e 3c 0.7) than the Par-Lup 3-4 jet (T e 3c 13,000 K, n e 3c 6 7 104 cm-3, x e < 0.4), even if the existence of a higher density component (n e 3c 2 7 105 cm-3) is probed by the [Fe III] and [Fe II] ultra-violet lines. The physical conditions derived from the iron lines are compared with shock models suggesting that the shock at work in ESO-H\u3b1 574 is faster and likely more energetic than the Par-Lup 3-4 shock. This latter feature is confirmed by the high percentage of gas-phase iron measured in ESO-H\u3b1 574 (50%-60% of its solar abundance in comparison with less than 30% in Par-Lup 3-4), which testifies that the ESO-H\u3b1 574 shock is powerful enough to partially destroy the dust present inside the jet. This work demonstrates that a multiline Fe analysis can be effectively used to probe the excitation and ionization conditions of the gas in a jet without any assumption on ionic abundances. The main limitation on the diagnostics resides in the large uncertainties of the atomic data, which, however, can be overcome through a statistical approach involving many line

First discovery of Holocene cryptotephra in Amazonia

The use of volcanic ash layers for dating and correlation (tephrochronology) is widely applied in the study of past environmental changes. We describe the first cryptotephra (non-visible volcanic ash horizon) to be identified in the Amazon basin, which is tentatively attributed to a source in the Ecuadorian Eastern Cordillera (0–1°S, 78-79°W), some 500-600 km away from our field site in the Peruvian Amazon. Our discovery 1) indicates that the Amazon basin has been subject to volcanic ash fallout during the recent past; 2) highlights the opportunities for using cryptotephras to date palaeoenvironmental records in the Amazon basin and 3) indicates that cryptotephra layers are preserved in a dynamic Amazonian peatland, suggesting that similar layers are likely to be present in other peat sequences that are important for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. The discovery of cryptotephra in an Amazonian peatland provides a baseline for further investigation of Amazonian tephrochronology and the potential impacts of volcanism on vegetation

Catchment-scale biogeography of riverine bacterioplankton

Lotic ecosystems such as rivers and streams are unique in that they represent a continuum of both space and time during the transition from headwaters to the river mouth. As microbes have very different controls over their ecology, distribution and dispersion compared with macrobiota, we wished to explore biogeographical patterns within a river catchment and uncover the major drivers structuring bacterioplankton communities. Water samples collected across the River Thames Basin, UK, covering the transition from headwater tributaries to the lower reaches of the main river channel were characterised using 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing. This approach revealed an ecological succession in the bacterial community composition along the river continuum, moving from a community dominated by Bacteroidetes in the headwaters to Actinobacteria-dominated downstream. Location of the sampling point in the river network (measured as the cumulative water channel distance upstream) was found to be the most predictive spatial feature; inferring that ecological processes pertaining to temporal community succession are of prime importance in driving the assemblages of riverine bacterioplankton communities. A decrease in bacterial activity rates and an increase in the abundance of low nucleic acid bacteria relative to high nucleic acid bacteria were found to correspond with these downstream changes in community structure, suggesting corresponding functional changes. Our findings show that bacterial communities across the Thames basin exhibit an ecological succession along the river continuum, and that this is primarily driven by water residence time rather than the physiochemical status of the river

Associations between Sleep Quality and Heart Rate Variability: Implications for a Biological Model of Stress Detection Using Wearable Technology.

INTRODUCTION: The autonomic nervous system plays a vital role in the modulation of many vital bodily functions, one of which is sleep and wakefulness. Many studies have investigated the link between autonomic dysfunction and sleep cycles; however, few studies have investigated the links between short-term sleep health, as determined by the Pittsburgh Quality of Sleep Index (PSQI), such as subjective sleep quality, sleep latency, sleep duration, habitual sleep efficiency, sleep disturbances, use of sleeping medication, and daytime dysfunction, and autonomic functioning in healthy individuals. AIM: In this cross-sectional study, the aim was to investigate the links between short-term sleep quality and duration, and heart rate variability in 60 healthy individuals, in order to provide useful information about the effects of stress and sleep on heart rate variability (HRV) indices, which in turn could be integrated into biological models for wearable devices. METHODS: Sleep parameters were collected from participants on commencement of the study, and HRV was derived using an electrocardiogram (ECG) during a resting and stress task (Trier Stress Test). RESULT: Low-frequency to high-frequency (LF:HF) ratio was significantly higher during the stress task than during the baseline resting phase, and very-low-frequency and high-frequency HRV were inversely related to impaired sleep during stress tasks. CONCLUSION: Given the ubiquitous nature of wearable technologies for monitoring health states, in particular HRV, it is important to consider the impacts of sleep states when using these technologies to interpret data. Very-low-frequency HRV during the stress task was found to be inversely related to three negative sleep indices: sleep quality, daytime dysfunction, and global sleep score