Atlantic Water Circulation in the Canada Basin

Circulation of the Atlantic water layer in the Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean is re-examined using the numerous data acquired in the last decade. Methods of analysis were (1) the core layer method as used ten years previously, (2) a 500/1000-decibar dynamic topography, and (3) the available direct current measurements. The results confirm the general anti-cyclonic circulation deduced previously which has a transport of about 0.6 sverdrups. A new feature is described: a sub-surface counterflow moving southeast along the eastern slope of the Chukchi Rise with a transport of about 0.3 sverdrups

Statistical Mechanics of Nonuniform Magnetization Reversal

The magnetization reversal rate via thermal creation of soliton pairs in quasi-1D ferromagnetic systems is calculated. Such a model describes e.g. the time dependent coercivity of elongated particles as used in magnetic recording media. The energy barrier that has to be overcome by thermal fluctuations corresponds to a soliton-antisoliton pair whose size depends on the external field. In contrast to other models of first order phase transitions such as the phi^4 model, an analytical expression for this energy barrier is found for all values of the external field. The magnetization reversal rate is calculated using a functional Fokker-Planck description of the stochastic magnetization dynamics. Analytical results are obtained in the limits of small fields and fields close to the anisotropy field. In the former case the hard-axis anisotropy becomes effectively strong and the magnetization reversal rate is shown to reduce to the nucleation rate of soliton-antisoliton pairs in the overdamped double sine-Gordon model. The present theory therefore includes the nucleation rate of soliton-antisoliton pairs in the double sine-Gordon chain as a special case. These results demonstrate that for elongated particles, the experimentally observed coercivity is significantly lower than the value predicted by the standard theories of N\'eel and Brown.Comment: 21 pages RevTex 3.0 (twocolumn), 6 figures available on request, to appear in Phys Rev B, Dec (1994

Exercise-induced pulmonary haemorrhage impairs racing performance in thoroughbred racehorses

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY : Exercise-induced pulmonary haemorrhage (EIPH) occurs commonly in Thoroughbred racehorses worldwide. While EIPH is believed to be an important cause of impaired performance in these horses, there is limited evidence from sufficiently powered studies to evaluate this association. OBJECTIVES : To evaluate whether EIPH is associated with finishing position, distance finished behind race winners and differences in race earning among Thoroughbred horses racing in South Africa. STUDY DESIGN : Prospective cross-sectional study. METHODS : One thousand Thoroughbred horses racing in South Africa were enrolled prior to a single race and underwent tracheobronchoscopic examination within 2 h of racing. Three observers, blinded to the horses’ identity and race performance, independently evaluated EIPH occurrence and severity using video recordings of the examination. Data were analysed using multivariable logistic and linear regression while controlling for important horse and race factors as potential confounding variables. RESULTS : Overall, 68% of horses had evidence of EIPH (grade ≥1). Horses without evidence of EIPH (severity grade 0), when compared with horses with any evidence of EIPH (grade ≥1), were >2 times more likely to win races (odds ratio = 2.3; 95% confidence interval 1.4–3.7; P = 0.001), finished an average of one length ahead of horses with EIPH (P = 0.03), and were 2.5 times more likely to be in the highest decile in race earnings (odds ratio = 2.5, 95% CI 1.5–4.1, P<0.001). However, no association was identified regarding finishing in the top 3 positions or earning money when analysed as a continuous variable or analysed as any winnings vs. none. CONCLUSIONS : Exercise-induced pulmonary haemorrhage was associated with impaired performance in Thoroughbred racehorses not medicated with furosemide and not using nasal dilator strips. These findings provide strong corroboration of previous research indicating that the occurrence of EIPH has a major impact on the ability of Thoroughbred racehorses to compete successfully as elite athletes.Equine Research Centre, Faculty of Veterinary Science, University of Pretoria, and by the Thoroughbred Racing Trust of South Africa.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1001/(ISSN)2042-33062016-05-31hb201

Patellar cartilage volume of the back leg versus the higher loaded front leg in current elite male english cricket fast bowlers

Patellar cartilage volume of the back leg versus the higher loaded front leg in current elite male english cricket fast bowler

The consultation of rugby players in co-developing a player health study:feasibility and consequences of sports participants as research partners

Background Public involvement in the UK has increased in accordance with funding requirements and patient-centred health policy initiatives and the reporting of the positive impact of public involvement for those involved, research and researchers. However, public involvement has not been implemented equally across all disease areas and populations. The aim of this process was to involve rugby players as sports participants across the research cycle of a player health study, ensure the study is player-centred, and that players had approved and informed the design of the study and its questionnaire from their playing experiences. Methods Two fora were undertaken with current students who were playing rugby at a Collegiate University. All male and female University rugby players and two College rugby teams were approached to become involved. Sessions were chaired by a player-lead using a topic guide and were audio-recorded and transcribed. Player suggestions were extracted by the player lead and discussed within the study team for inclusion in the player health study and its questionnaire. Results Players readily engaged with the sessions and made many contributions to the development of the study and the questionnaire. Players discussed whether certain topics were being collected satisfactorily, and whether the questionnaire would encompass their playing experiences or that of other players. Players suggested where answers might be less reliable, and ways in which this could be improved. Players recommended additions to the questionnaire, and questioned researchers on the choice of language, motivation for question inclusion and if measures were standardised or novel. Conclusions Involving a group of sports participants in the design of a player health study and questionnaire was not an arduous process and was rewarding for researchers. The process resulted in numerous alterations to the questionnaire and its functionality, which may improve response rate but will more importantly improve the experience of players participating in this study. Player involvement in research was feasible to implement and improved not only the questionnaire but also researcher confidence in the project and that player experience was being accurately captured and leading a reliable, optimal data collection process in this unique population. </p

Photospheric Magnetic Field: Relationship Between North-South Asymmetry and Flux Imbalance

Photospheric magnetic fields were studied using the Kitt Peak synoptic maps for 1976-2003. Only strong magnetic fields (B>100 G) of the equatorial region were taken into account. The north-south asymmetry of the magnetic fluxes was considered as well as the imbalance between positive and negative fluxes. The north-south asymmetry displays a regular alternation of the dominant hemisphere during the solar cycle: the northern hemisphere dominated in the ascending phase, the southern one in the descending phase during Solar Cycles 21-23. The sign of the imbalance did not change during the 11 years from one polar-field reversal to the next and always coincided with the sign of the Sun's polar magnetic field in the northern hemisphere. The dominant sign of leading sunspots in one of the hemispheres determines the sign of the magnetic-flux imbalance. The sign of the north-south asymmetry of the magnetic fluxes and the sign of the imbalance of the positive and the negative fluxes are related to the quarter of the 22-year magnetic cycle where the magnetic configuration of the Sun remains constant (from the minimum where the sunspot sign changes according to Hale's law to the magnetic-field reversal and from the reversal to the minimum). The sign of the north-south asymmetry for the time interval considered was determined by the phase of the 11-year cycle (before or after the reversal); the sign of the imbalance of the positive and the negative fluxes depends on both the phase of the 11-year cycle and on the parity of the solar cycle. The results obtained demonstrate the connection of the magnetic fields in active regions with the Sun's polar magnetic field in the northern hemisphere.Comment: 24 pages, 12 figures, 2 table

Population overlap and habitat segregation in wintering Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa

Distinct breeding populations of migratory species may overlap both spatially and temporally, but differ in patterns of habitat use. This has important implications for population monitoring and conservation. To quantify the extent to which two distinct breeding populations of a migratory shorebird, the Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa, overlap spatially, temporally and in their use of different habitats during winter. We use mid-winter counts between 1990 and 2001 to identify the most important sites in Iberia for Black-tailed Godwits. Monthly surveys of estuarine mudflats and rice-fields at one major site, the Tejo estuary in Portugal in 2005-2007, together with detailed tracking of colour-ringed individuals, are used to explore patterns of habitat use and segregation of the Icelandic subspecies L. l. islandica and the nominate continental subspecies L. l. limosa. In the period 1990-2001, over 66 000 Black-tailed Godwits were counted on average in Iberia during mid-winter (January), of which 80% occurred at just four sites: Tejo and Sado lower basins in Portugal, and Coto Dontildeana and Ebro Delta in Spain. Icelandic Black-tailed Godwits are present throughout the winter and forage primarily in estuarine habitats. Continental Black-tailed Godwits are present from December to March and primarily use rice-fields. Iberia supports about 30% of the Icelandic population in winter and most of the continental population during spring passage. While the Icelandic population is currently increasing, the continental population is declining rapidly. Although the estuarine habitats used by Icelandic godwits are largely protected as Natura 2000 sites, the habitat segregation means that conservation actions for the decreasing numbers of continental godwits should focus on protection of rice-fields and re-establishment of freshwater wetlands

Association between Midlife Risk Factors and Late-Onset Epilepsy: Results from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

Importance: The incidence of epilepsy is higher in older age than at any other period of life. Stroke, dementia, and hypertension are associated with late-onset epilepsy; however, the role of other vascular and lifestyle factors remains unclear. Objective: To identify midlife vascular and lifestyle risk factors for late-onset epilepsy. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study is a prospective cohort study of 15792 participants followed up since 1987 to 1989 with in-person visits, telephone calls, and surveillance of hospitalizations (10974 invited without completing enrollment). The ARIC is a multicenter study with participants selected from 4 US communities. This study included 10420 black or white participants from ARIC with at least 2 years of Medicare fee-for-service coverage and without missing baseline data. Data were analyzed betweeen April 2017 and May 2018. Exposures: Demographic, vascular, lifestyle, and other possible epilepsy risk factors measured at baseline (age 45-64 years) were evaluated in multivariable survival models including demographics, vascular risk factors, and lifestyle risk factors. Main Outcomes and Measures: Time to development of late-onset epilepsy (2 or more International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes for epilepsy or seizures starting at 60 years or older in any claim [hospitalization or outpatient Medicare through 2013]), with first code for seizures after at least 2 years without code for seizures. Results: Of the 10420 total participants (5878 women [56.4%] and 2794 black participants [26.8%]; median age 55 years at first visit), 596 participants developed late-onset epilepsy (3.33 per 1000 person-years). The incidence was higher in black than in white participants (4.71; 95% CI, 4.12-5.40 vs 2.88; 95% CI, 2.60-3.18 per 1000 person-years). In multivariable analysis, baseline hypertension (hazard ratio [HR], 1.30; 95% CI, 1.09-1.55), diabetes (HR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.17-1.80), smoking (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.01-1.17), apolipoprotein E ϵ4 genotype (1 allele HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.02-1.45; 2 alleles HR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.35-2.81), and incident stroke (HR, 3.38; 95% CI, 2.78-4.10) and dementia (HR, 2.56; 95% CI, 2.11-3.12) were associated with an increased risk of late-onset epilepsy, while higher levels of physical activity (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83-0.98) and moderate alcohol intake (HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.57-0.90) were associated with a lower risk. Results were similar after censoring individuals with stroke or dementia. Conclusions and Relevance: Potentially modifiable risk factors in midlife and the APOE ϵ4 genotype were positively associated with risk of developing late-onset epilepsy. Although stroke and dementia were both associated with late-onset epilepsy, vascular and lifestyle risk factors were significant even in the absence of stroke or dementia

Development and external validation study of a melanoma risk prediction model incorporating clinically assessed naevi and solar lentigines

Background: Melanoma risk prediction models could be useful for matching preventive interventions to patients’ risk. Objectives: To develop and validate a model for incident first‐primary cutaneous melanoma using clinically assessed risk factors. Methods: We used unconditional logistic regression with backward selection from the Australian Melanoma Family Study (461 cases and 329 controls) in which age, sex and city of recruitment were kept in each step, and we externally validated it using the Leeds Melanoma Case–Control Study (960 cases and 513 controls). Candidate predictors included clinically assessed whole‐body naevi and solar lentigines, and self‐assessed pigmentation phenotype, sun exposure, family history and history of keratinocyte cancer. We evaluated the predictive strength and discrimination of the model risk factors using odds per age‐ and sex‐adjusted SD (OPERA) and the area under curve (AUC), and calibration using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. Results: The final model included the number of naevi ≥ 2 mm in diameter on the whole body, solar lentigines on the upper back (a six‐level scale), hair colour at age 18 years and personal history of keratinocyte cancer. Naevi was the strongest risk factor; the OPERA was 3·51 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2·71–4·54] in the Australian study and 2·56 (95% CI 2·23–2·95) in the Leeds study. The AUC was 0·79 (95% CI 0·76–0·83) in the Australian study and 0·73 (95% CI 0·70–0·75) in the Leeds study. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test P‐value was 0·30 in the Australian study and < 0·001 in the Leeds study. Conclusions: This model had good discrimination and could be used by clinicians to stratify patients by melanoma risk for the targeting of preventive interventions. What's already known about this topic? Melanoma risk prediction models may be useful in prevention by tailoring interventions to personalized risk levels. For reasons of feasibility, time and cost many melanoma prediction models use self‐assessed risk factors. However, individuals tend to underestimate their naevus numbers. What does this study add? We present a melanoma risk prediction model, which includes clinically‐assessed whole‐body naevi and solar lentigines, and self‐assessed risk factors including pigmentation phenotype and history of keratinocyte cancer. This model performs well on discrimination, the model's ability to distinguish between individuals with and without melanoma, and may assist clinicians to stratify patients by melanoma risk for targeted preventive interventions

Controlling for frailty in pharmacoepidemiologic studies of older adults

Background: Frailty is a geriatric syndrome characterized by weakness and weight loss and is associated with adverse health outcomes. It is often an unmeasured confounder in pharmacoepidemiologic and comparative effectiveness studies using administrative claims data. Methods: Among the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study Visit 5 participants (2011-2013; n = 3,146), we conducted a validation study to compare a Medicare claims-based algorithm of dependency in activities of daily living (or dependency) developed as a proxy for frailty with a reference standard measure of phenotypic frailty. We applied the algorithm to the ARIC participants' claims data to generate a predicted probability of dependency. Using the claims-based algorithm, we estimated the C-statistic for predicting phenotypic frailty. We further categorized participants by their predicted probability of dependency (<5%, 5% to <20%, and ≥20%) and estimated associations with difficulties in physical abilities, falls, and mortality. Results: The claims-based algorithm showed good discrimination of phenotypic frailty (C-statistic = 0.71; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.67, 0.74). Participants classified with a high predicted probability of dependency (≥20%) had higher prevalence of falls and difficulty in physical ability, and a greater risk of 1-year all-cause mortality (hazard ratio = 5.7 [95% CI = 2.5, 13]) than participants classified with a low predicted probability (<5%). Sensitivity and specificity varied across predicted probability of dependency thresholds. Conclusions: The Medicare claims-based algorithm showed good discrimination of phenotypic frailty and high predictive ability with adverse health outcomes. This algorithm can be used in future Medicare claims analyses to reduce confounding by frailty and improve study validity