Aid for trade : matching potential demand and supply

This paper is designed to help both the beneficiary governments and donors of aid-for-trade identify countries that are under-performing in trade and which are receiving less aid for trade than their global performance might otherwise suggest is necessary. The authors develop ten measures of trade performance and capacity (including trade-related infrastructure, institutions, and incentives) to assess potential demand, and then look at country allocations of aid for trade to see which are receiving below-average amounts in the supply of aid for trade - relative to their potential demand. As they design national development strategies, countries may wish to consider giving greater attention to trade and requesting that donors allocate more aid for trade. As part of the analysis, the paper provides a conceptual framework for selecting indicators of trade performance and its policy determinants that the World Trade Organization and its partners might monitor closely as part of the aid for trade initiative.Economic Theory&Research,Free Trade,Emerging Markets,Trade Policy,Transport Economics Policy&Planning

Watching more than the Discovery channel : export cycles and diversification in development

This paper examines the export performance of 99 countries over 1995-2004 to understand the relative roles of export growth through"discovery"of new products and growth during post-discovery phases of the export product cycle -- acceleration and maturation -- in existing markets and expansion into new geographic markets. The authors find that expanding existing products in existing markets (growth at the intensive margin) has greater weight in export growth than diversification into new products and new geographic markets (growth at the extensive margin). Moreover, growth into new geographic markets appears to be more important than discovery of new export products in explaining export growth. Of particular importance is whether an exporting country succeeds in reaching more national markets that are already importing the product it makes. This geographic index of market penetration is a powerful explanatory variable of export performance. This suggests that governments should not focus solely or even primarily on the discovery channel, but also seek to identify and address market failures that are constraining exporters in subsequent phases of the export cycle.Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Markets and Market Access,Free Trade,Debt Markets

Crisis and contagion in East Asia : nine lessons

The authors investigate the origins of the East Asian crisis and its contagion, examine the channels of contagion, and discuss policy recommendationsThey make detailed recommendations in the context of nine general lessons learned from the East Asian crisis. 1) Preventing crises and contagion: avoid large current account deficits financed through short-term private capital inflows. Aggressively regulate and supervise financial systems to ensure that banks and nonbank financial institutions manage risks prudently. Put in place incentives for sound corporate finance to prevent high leverage ratios and overreliance on foreign borrowing. 2) Managing crises and contagion: In the context of sound policies, mobilize timely external liquidity of sufficient magnitude to restore market confidence. At times of crisis,"bail in"private foreign creditors. When official resources are too limited for the magnitude of the crisis or contagion, and when private creditors are not amenable to coordination, some involuntary private involvement may be needed too. Keep in mind that there is no one-size-fits-all monetary and fiscal stance for responding to crises and contagion. 3) Resolving the systemic consequences of crises and contagion. Move swiftly to establish domestic and international mechanisms for dealing with the assets and liabilities on nonviolable banks and corporations. Cushion the effects of crisis on low-income groups through social policies to ameliorate the inevitable social tensions associated with adjustment. 4) Developing an effective regional financial architecture. Improve mechanisms for preventing, managing, and resolving crises and contagion at the regional level in ways consistent with improvements in the global financial architecture.Economic Theory&Research,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Financial Intermediation,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Banks&Banking Reform,Banks&Banking Reform,Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring,Financial Economics,Economic Theory&Research,Financial Intermediation

Economic partnership agreements and the export competitiveness of Africa

Trade can be a key driver of growth for African countries, as it has been for those countries, particularly in East Asia, that have experienced high and sustained rates of growth. Economic partnership agreements with the European Union could be instrumental in a competitiveness framework, but to do so they would have to be designed carefully in a way that supports integration into the global economy and is consistent with national development strategies. Interim agreements have focused on reciprocal tariff removal and less restrictive rules of origin. To be fully effective, economic partnership agreements will have to address constraints to regional integration, including both tariff and non-tariff barriers; improve trade facilitation; and define appropriate most favored nation services liberalization. At the same time, African countries will need to reduce external tariff peak barriers on a most favored nation basis to ensure that when preferences for the European Union are implemented after transitional periods, they do not lead to substantial losses from trade diversion. This entails an ambitious agenda of policy reform that must be backed up by development assistance in the form of"aid for trade."Economic Theory&Research,Free Trade,Emerging Markets,Trade Policy,Trade Law

Avenues for Export Diversification: Issues for Low-Income Countries

While diversification of exports is often a desirable trade objective, it is far from clear how best to tap into new opportunities. This paper discusses the range of avenues of diversification, including (i) expanding the range of markets into which existing products are sold (geographic diversification); (ii) upgrading the value of existing products, including agricultural exports (quality diversification); and (iii) taking advantage of opportunities to expand non-merchandise exports (services diversification), in addition to introducing entirely new export products. All offer opportunities for cost-effective positive policies relating to the incentive regime, backbone services, and export support institutions.Exports, trade, services, growth, low income countries, world markets

Financial Crises: Nine Lessons from East Asia

The 1990s witnessed a surge in private capital flows to developing countries--and a surge in financial crises. The most severe and regionally extensive has (to date) been East Asia's. The last six years has produced a wealth of research that now allows us to abstract policy lessons from the East Asian crisis and the difficulties in implementing them. These lessons span crisis prevention, management and resolution, and building a new international financial architecture with a regional focus. Progress in these areas would have helped prevent, or at least minimize, both the East Asian crisis and more recent crises.Capital Flow; Capital; Developing Countries; Policy

The Need for Economic Cooperation among Developing Countries

SUMMARY The resolution on ECDC at UNCTAD V was one of the more positive achievements of the Conference. The various proposals which have been made for promoting ECDC are described, in particular the improvement of trading arrangements, and monetary and financial cooperation among ldcs. A number of UNCTAD sectoral studies have examined the current level of dependence of ldcs on dcs, defined as the extent of control of dc interests over production and trade. The results of studies of six products (bananas, tobacco, cotton, electrical goods, shipping and insurance) are described. They show that levels of dependence in this composite sense are very high, as well as demonstrating the need for CSR. This suggests that the constraints in the form of dc vested interests that will have to be faced by ldcs are severe. There is a strong case for setting up an ‘organisation for Southern economic cooperation and development’ as the institutional means to help overcome this kind of trade dependence. RÉSUMÉ La nécessité de la coopération économique entre les pays en développement La résolution de la cinquième CNUCED sur la coopération économique entre les pays en développement fut l'une des réalisations les plus utiles de la Conférence. Les diverses propositions avancées pour favoriser cette coopération y sont décrites, notamment celles concernant l'amélioraiton des arrangements commerciaux et la coopération financière et monétaire entre les PVD. Plusieurs études sectorielles de la CNUCED ont calculé le niveau actuel de dépendance des PVD à l'égard des pays développés, en fonction du degré de contrôle par les instances des pays développés de la production et du commerce des PVD.. L'article décrit ensuite les résultats des études de six secteurs (bananes, tabac, coton, produits électriques, transport maritime et assurances). Ils indiquent que le degré de dépendance en ce sens est très élevé et donnent à penser que les contraintes que représentent les intérêts des pays développés pour les PVD et auxquelles ils devront faire face sont très lourdes, Il faudrait établir une ‘organisation pour la coopération et le développement économiques du Sud’ pour surmonter ce type de dépendance commerciale. RESUMEN La necesidad de la cooperación económica entre los países en vías de desarrollo La resolución sobre cooperación económica entre los países en vías de desarrollo adoptada en la UNCTAD V fue uno de los éxitos más positivos de la conferencia. Se describen las diversas propuestas que se hicieron para fomentar dicha cooperación económica, especialmente el mejoramiento de las disposiciones comerciales, y la cooperación financiera y monetaria entre los países menos desarrollados. En varios estudios de sector de la UNCTAD se ha examinado el actual nivel de dependencia de los países menos desarrollados en los desarrollados, determinado como da amplitud del control de los intereses de los países desarrollados sobre la producción y el comercio. Se describen los resultados de los estudios sobre seis productos (plátanos, tabaco, algodón, productos eléctricos, navegación y seguros). Confirman que los niveles de dependencia en su sentido complejo son muy elevados, demostrándose al mismo tiempo la necesidad de una autodependencia colectiva. Esto sugiere que son muy graves las presiones que se presentan en forma de los intereses creados de los países desarrollados con los que tendrán que enfrentarse los menos desarrollados. Parece haber más que suficiente justificación para establecer una ‘organización para la cooperación y desarrollo económicos meridionales’, como los medios institucionales para contribuir a superar este tipo de dependencia comercial

Avenues for Export Diversification: Issues for Low-Income Countries

While diversification of exports is often a desirable trade objective, it is far from clear how best to tap into new opportunities. This paper discusses the range of avenues of diversification, including (i) expanding the range of markets into which existing products are sold (geographic diversification); (ii) upgrading the value of existing products, including agricultural exports (quality diversification); and (iii) taking advantage of opportunities to expand non-merchandise exports (services diversification), in addition to introducing entirely new export products. All offer opportunities for cost-effective positive policies relating to the incentive regime, backbone services, and export support institutions