Fitting models of multiple hypotheses to partial population data: investigating the causes of cycles in red grouse

There are two postulated causes for the observed periodic fluctuations (cycles) in red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus). The first involves interaction with the parasitic nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis. The second invokes delayed regulation through the effect of male aggressiveness on territoriality. Empirical evidence exists to support both hypotheses, and each hypothesis has been modeled deterministically. However, little effort has gone into looking at the combined effects of the two mechanisms or formally fitting the corresponding models to field data. Here we present a model for red grouse dynamics that includes both parasites and territoriality. To explore the single and combined hypotheses, we specify three versions of this model and fit them to data using Bayesian state‐space modeling, a method that allows statistical inference to be performed on mechanistic models such as ours. Output from the three models is then examined to determine their goodness of fit and the biological plausibility of the parameter values required by each to fit the population data. While all three models are capable of emulating the observed cyclic dynamics, only the model including both aggression and parasites does so under consistently realistic parameter values, providing theoretical support for the idea that both mechanisms shape red grouse cycles

Initial Experiences of Building Secure Access to Patient Confidential Data via the Internet

A project to enable health care professionals (GPs, practice nurses and diabetes nurse specialists) to access, via the Internet, confidential patient data held on a secondary care (hospital) diabetes information system, has been implemented. We describe the application that we chose to distribute (a diabetes register); the security mechanisms we used to protect the data (a public key infrastructure with strong encryption and digitally signed messages, plus a firewall); the reasons for the implementation decisions we made; the validation testing that we performed and the preliminary results of the pilot implementation

Characterisation of the dynamical quantum state of a zero temperature Bose-Einstein condensate

We describe the quantum state of a Bose-Einstein condensate at zero temperature. By evaluating the Q-function we show that the ground state of Bose-Einstein condensate under the Hartree approximation is squeezed. We find that multimode Schroedinger cat states are generated as the condensate evolves in a ballistic expansion.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figure

Advanced rocket engine cryogenic turbopump bearing thermal model

A lumped node thermal model was developed representing the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) liquid oxygen (LOX) turbopump turbine end bearings operating in a cryogenically cooled bearing tester. Bearing elements, shaft, carrier, housing, cryogen flow characteristics, friction heat, and fluid viscous energy are included in the model. Heat transfer characteristics for the regimes of forced convection boiling are modeled for liquid oxygen (LOX) and liquid nitrogen (LN2). Large temperature differences between the cryogenic fluid and baring contact surfaces require detailed nodal representation in these areas. Internal loads and friction heat are affected by temperature dependent operating clearances requiring iterations between bearing thermal and mechanical models. Analyses indicate a thermal-mechanical coupling resulting in reduced operating clearances, increased loading and heating which can contribute to premature bearing failure. Contact surfaces operate at temperatures above local saturation resulting in vapor rather than liquid in the contacts, precluding possible liquid film lubrication. Elevated temperatures can reduce lubrication, increase friction, and reduce surface hardness supporting a surface failure mode rather than subsurface fatigue

A new efficient method for determining weighted power spectra: detection of low-frequency solar p-modes by analysis of BiSON data

We present a new and highly efficient algorithm for computing a power spectrum made from evenly spaced data which combines the noise-reducing advantages of the weighted fit with the computational advantages of the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). We apply this method to a 10-year data set of the solar p-mode oscillations obtained by the Birmingham Solar Oscillations Network (BiSON) and thereby uncover three new low-frequency modes. These are the l=2, n=5 and n=7 modes and the l=3, n=7 mode. In the case of the l=2, n=5 modes, this is believed to be the first such identification of this mode in the literature. The statistical weights needed for the method are derived from a combination of the real data and a sophisticated simulation of the instrument performance. Variations in the weights are due mainly to the differences in the noise characteristics of the various BiSON instruments, the change in those characteristics over time and the changing line-of-sight velocity between the stations and the Sun. It should be noted that a weighted data set will have a more time-dependent signal than an unweighted set and that, consequently, its frequency spectrum will be more susceptible to aliasing.Comment: 11 pages, 7 Figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS, Figure 6 had to be reduced in size to upload and so may be difficult to view on screen in .ps versio

Stirring the Embers: High Sensitivity VLBI Observations of GRB030329

We present high sensitivity Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations 806 days after the gamma-ray burst of 2003 March 29 (GRB030329). The angular diameter of the radio afterglow is measured to be 0.347 +- 0.09 mas, corresponding to 0.99 +- 0.26 pc at the redshift of GRB030329 (z = 0.1685). The evolution of the image size favors a uniform external density over an R^-2 wind-like density profile (at distances of R >~10^18 cm from the source), although the latter cannot be ruled out yet. The current apparent expansion velocity of the image size is only mildly relativistic, suggesting a non-relativistic transition time of t_NR ~ 1 yr. A rebrightening, or at least a significant flattening in the flux decay, is expected within the next several years as the counter-jet becomes visible (this has not yet been observed). An upper limit of <1.9c is set on the proper motion of the flux centroid.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journa

Kaleidoscope laser

We report the first calculations of mode patterns of unstable-cavity lasers with truly two-dimensional transverse geometries. A detailed account of numerical techniques, incorporating a nonorthogonal beam-propagation method, and results for cavities with a range of transverse symmetries, such as regular polygonal and rhomboid, are presented. In view of the beautiful complexity of the eigenmodes predicted, a novel kaleidoscope laser is proposed