Runaway Feedback Loops in Predictive Policing

Predictive policing systems are increasingly used to determine how to allocate police across a city in order to best prevent crime. Discovered crime data (e.g., arrest counts) are used to help update the model, and the process is repeated. Such systems have been empirically shown to be susceptible to runaway feedback loops, where police are repeatedly sent back to the same neighborhoods regardless of the true crime rate. In response, we develop a mathematical model of predictive policing that proves why this feedback loop occurs, show empirically that this model exhibits such problems, and demonstrate how to change the inputs to a predictive policing system (in a black-box manner) so the runaway feedback loop does not occur, allowing the true crime rate to be learned. Our results are quantitative: we can establish a link (in our model) between the degree to which runaway feedback causes problems and the disparity in crime rates between areas. Moreover, we can also demonstrate the way in which \emph{reported} incidents of crime (those reported by residents) and \emph{discovered} incidents of crime (i.e. those directly observed by police officers dispatched as a result of the predictive policing algorithm) interact: in brief, while reported incidents can attenuate the degree of runaway feedback, they cannot entirely remove it without the interventions we suggest.Comment: Extended version accepted to the 1st Conference on Fairness, Accountability and Transparency, 2018. Adds further treatment of reported as well as discovered incident

In silico and in vitro drug screening identifies new therapeutic approaches for Ewing sarcoma.

The long-term overall survival of Ewing sarcoma (EWS) patients remains poor; less than 30% of patients with metastatic or recurrent disease survive despite aggressive combinations of chemotherapy, radiation and surgery. To identify new therapeutic options, we employed a multi-pronged approach using in silico predictions of drug activity via an integrated bioinformatics approach in parallel with an in vitro screen of FDA-approved drugs. Twenty-seven drugs and forty-six drugs were identified, respectively, to have anti-proliferative effects for EWS, including several classes of drugs in both screening approaches. Among these drugs, 30 were extensively validated as mono-therapeutic agents and 9 in 14 various combinations in vitro. Two drugs, auranofin, a thioredoxin reductase inhibitor, and ganetespib, an HSP90 inhibitor, were predicted to have anti-cancer activities in silico and were confirmed active across a panel of genetically diverse EWS cells. When given in combination, the survival rate in vivo was superior compared to auranofin or ganetespib alone. Importantly, extensive formulations, dose tolerance, and pharmacokinetics studies demonstrated that auranofin requires alternative delivery routes to achieve therapeutically effective levels of the gold compound. These combined screening approaches provide a rapid means to identify new treatment options for patients with a rare and often-fatal disease

Pro-inflammatory flagellin proteins of prevalent motile commensal bacteria are variably abundant in the intestinal microbiome of elderly humans

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Impact of solar photovoltaics on the low-voltage distribution network in New Zealand

Residential rooftop-mounted solar photovoltaic (PV) panels are being installed at an increasing rate, both in New Zealand and globally. There have been concerns over possible issues such as overvoltage and overcurrent. These PV systems are mostly connected at low voltage (LV). This study presents a case study of simulating the entire LV network from a single utility, comprising 10,558 11 kV–415 V transformers and their associated distribution feeders. These results are also presented by network type. Various solar PV penetration levels are added to the model and the power-flow results are presented. From these results, possible maximum limits of solar PV penetration are investigated and measures to alleviate overvoltage problems are simulated. The effect of using PV inverters with voltage regulation is simulated. Results show that some minor overvoltage problems can be expected in the future, particularly in urban areas. However, in most cases the overvoltage would not be much higher than the statutory limit of 1.06 p.u

Lung cancer treatment costs, including patient responsibility, by disease stage and treatment modality, 1992 to 2003

AbstractObjectivesThe objective of this analysis was to estimate costs for lung cancer care and evaluate trends in the share of treatment costs that are the responsibility of Medicare beneficiaries.MethodsThe Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare data from 1991–2003 for 60,231 patients with lung cancer were used to estimate monthly and patient-liability costs for clinical phases of lung cancer (prediagnosis, staging, initial, continuing, and terminal), stratified by treatment, stage, and non-small- versus small-cell lung cancer. Lung cancer-attributable costs were estimated by subtracting each patient's own prediagnosis costs. Costs were estimated as the sum of Medicare reimbursements (payments from Medicare to the service provider), co-insurance reimbursements, and patient-liability costs (deductibles and “co-payments” that are the patient's responsibility). Costs and patient-liability costs were fit with regression models to compare trends by calendar year, adjusting for age at diagnosis.ResultsThe monthly treatment costs for a 72-year-old patient, diagnosed with lung cancer in 2000, in the first 6 months ranged from $2687 (no active treatment) to$9360 (chemo-radiotherapy); costs varied by stage at diagnosis and histologic type. Patient liability represented up to 21.6% of care costs and increased over the period 1992–2003 for most stage and treatment categories, even when care costs decreased or remained unchanged. The greatest monthly patient liability was incurred by chemo-radiotherapy patients, which ranged from $1617 to$2004 per month across cancer stages.ConclusionsCosts for lung cancer care are substantial, and Medicare is paying a smaller proportion of the total cost over time

Methylphenidate treatment of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in young people with learning disability and difficult-to-treat epilepsy: Evidence of clinical benefit.

To establish the efficacy and safety of methylphenidate (MPH) treatment for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in a group of children and young people with learning disability and severe epilepsy

Symptoms of anxiety and depression in school-aged children with active epilepsy: A population-based study

Children (5-15 years) with active epilepsy were screened using the parent-report (n=69) and self-report (n=48) versions of the Spence Children's Anxiety Scale (SCAS) and the self-report version of the Children's Depression Inventory (CDI) (n=48) in a population-based sample. A total of 32.2% of children (self-report) and 15.2% of children (parent-report) scored ≥1 SD above the mean on the SCAS total score. The subscales where most difficulty were reported on parent-report were Physical Injury and Separation Anxiety. There was less variation on self-report. On the CDI, 20.9% of young people scored ≥1 SD above the mean. Children reported significantly more symptoms of anxiety on the SCAS total score and three of the subscales (p<.05). There was a significant effect on the SCAS total score of respondents by seizure type interaction, suggesting higher scores on SCAS for children with generalized seizures on self- but not parent-report. Higher CDI scores were significantly associated with generalized seizures (p>.05).Symptoms of anxiety were more common based on self-report compared with parent-report. Children with generalized seizures reported more symptoms of depression and anxiety

Microstructural differences in the thalamus and thalamic radiations in the congenitally deaf

There is evidence of both crossmodal and intermodal plasticity in the deaf brain. Here, we investigated whether sub-cortical plasticity, specifically of the thalamus, contributed to this reorganisation. We contrasted diffusion weighted magnetic resonance imaging data from 13 congenitally deaf and 13 hearing participants, all of whom had learnt British Sign Language after 10 years of age. Connectivity based segmentation of the thalamus revealed changes to mean and radial diffusivity in occipital and frontal regions, which may be linked to enhanced peripheral visual acuity, and differences in how visual attention is deployed in the deaf group. Using probabilistic tractography, tracts were traced between the thalamus and its cortical targets, and microstructural measurements were extracted from these tracts. Group differences were found in microstructural measurements of occipital, frontal, somatosensory, motor and parietal thalamo-cortical tracts. Our findings suggest there is sub-cortical plasticity in the deaf brain, and that white matter alterations can be found throughout the deaf brain, rather than being restricted to, or focussed in auditory cortex