Explaining Exchange Rate Forecasts with Macroeconomic Fundamentals Using Interpretive Machine Learning

The complexity and ambiguity of financial and economic systems, along with frequent changes in the economic environment, have made it difficult to make precise predictions that are supported by theory-consistent explanations. Interpreting the prediction models used for forecasting important macroeconomic indicators is highly valuable for understanding relations among different factors, increasing trust towards the prediction models, and making predictions more actionable. In this study, we develop a fundamental-based model for the Canadian-U.S. dollar exchange rate within an interpretative framework. We propose a comprehensive approach using machine learning to predict the exchange rate and employ interpretability methods to accurately analyze the relationships among macroeconomic variables. Moreover, we implement an ablation study based on the output of the interpretations to improve the predictive accuracy of the models. Our empirical results show that crude oil, as Canada's main commodity export, is the leading factor that determines the exchange rate dynamics with time-varying effects. The changes in the sign and magnitude of the contributions of crude oil to the exchange rate are consistent with significant events in the commodity and energy markets and the evolution of the crude oil trend in Canada. Gold and the TSX stock index are found to be the second and third most important variables that influence the exchange rate. Accordingly, this analysis provides trustworthy and practical insights for policymakers and economists and accurate knowledge about the predictive model's decisions, which are supported by theoretical considerations

Efficacy of intrauterine infusion of granulocyte colony stimulating factor on patients with history of implantation failure: A randomized control trial

Background: Although pregnancy rate in in vitro fertilization-embryo transfer (IVF-ET) cycles has been increased over the preceding years, but the majority of IVF-ET cycles still fail. Granulocyte colony stimulating factor (GCSF) is a glycoprotein that stimulates cytokine growth factor and induces immune system which may improve pregnancy rate in women with history of implantation failure. Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate GCSF ability to improve pregnancy rate in women with history of implantation failure Materials and Methods: 0.5 ml (300 μg/ml) GCSF was infused intrauterine in intervention group. Pregnancy outcomes were assessed based on clinical pregnancy. Results: The mean age of participants was 31.95±4.71 years old. There were no significant differences between demographic characteristics in two groups (p>0.05). The pregnancy outcome in GCSF group was improved significantly (p=0.043). Conclusion: GCSF can improve pregnancy outcome in patients with history of implantation failur

Lung function reduction and chronic respiratory symptoms among workers in the cement industry: a follow up study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There are only a few follow-up studies of respiratory function among cement workers. The main aims of this study were to measure total dust exposure, to examine chronic respiratory symptoms and changes in lung function among cement factory workers and controls that were followed for one year.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study was conducted in two cement factories in Ethiopia. Totally, 262 personal measurements of total dust among 105 randomly selected workers were performed. Samples of total dust were collected on 37-mm cellulose acetate filters placed in closed faced Millipore-cassettes. Totally 127 workers; 56 cleaners, 44 cement production workers and 27 controls were randomly selected from two factories and examined for lung function and interviewed for chronic respiratory symptoms in 2009. Of these, 91 workers; 38 cement cleaners (mean age 32 years), 33 cement production workers (36 years) and 20 controls (38 years) were examined with the same measurements in 2010.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Total geometric mean dust exposure among cleaners was 432 mg/m³. The fraction of samples exceeding the Threshold Limit Value (TLV) of 10 mg/m³for the cleaners varied from 84-97% in the four departments. The levels were considerably lower among the production workers (GM = 8.2 mg/m³), but still 48% exceeded 10 mg/m³.</p> <p>The prevalence of all the chronic respiratory symptoms among both cleaners and production workers was significantly higher than among the controls.</p> <p>Forced Expiratory Volume in one second (FEV₁) and FEV₁/Forced Vital Capacity (FEV₁/FVC) were significantly reduced from 2009 to 2010 among the cleaners (p < 0.002 and p < 0.004, respectively) and production workers (p < 0.05 and p < 0.02, respectively), but not among the controls.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The high prevalence of chronic respiratory symptoms and reduction in lung function is probably associated with high cement dust exposure. Preventive measures are needed to reduce the dust exposure.</p

Cement dust exposure and acute lung function: A cross shift study

Background: Few studies have been carried out on acute effects of cement dust exposure. This study is conducted to investigate the associations between current "total" dust exposure and acute respiratory symptoms and respiratory function among cement factory workers. Methods: A combined cross-sectional and cross-shift study was conducted in Dire Dawa cement factory in Ethiopia. 40 exposed production workers from the crusher and packing sections and 20 controls from the guards were included. Personal "total" dust was measured in the workers' breathing zone and peak expiratory flow (PEF) was measured for all selected workers before and after the shift. When the day shift ended, the acute respiratory symptoms experienced were scored and recorded on a five-point Likert scale using a modified respiratory symptom score questionnaire. Results: The highest geometric mean dust exposure was found in the crusher section (38.6 mg/m3) followed by the packing section (18.5 mg/m3) and the guards (0.4 mg/m3). The highest prevalence of respiratory symptoms for the high exposed workers was stuffy nose (85%) followed by shortness of breath (47%) and "sneezing" (45%). PEF decreased significantly across the shift in the high exposed group. Multiple linear regression showed a significant negative association between the percentage cross-shift change in PEF and total dust exposure. The number of years of work in high-exposure sections and current smoking were also associated with cross-shift decrease in PEF. Conclusions: Total cement dust exposure was related to acute respiratory symptoms and acute ventilatory effects. Implementing measures to control dust and providing adequate personal respiratory protective equipment for the production workers are highly recommended

Food Basket of Iranian Qashqa`i Women: Relationship to Anemia

International audienceNote sous Cour de cassation (com.) 10 janvier 2006, M. Gilles Pellegrini, mandataire judiciaire c/ Société Holc