What are the odds? option-based forecasts of FOMC target changes

This article uses probability forecasts derived from options to assess evolving market uncertainty about Federal Reserve monetary policy actions in a variety of recent events and episodes. Options on federal funds futures contracts reveal a complete probability density function over possible Federal Reserve target rates, thus augmenting the expectations provided by federal funds futures contracts. Option-based forecasts are most useful when more than two federal funds target outcomes are plausible at an upcoming policy meeting.Federal Open Market Committee ; Forecasting ; Monetary policy

Feeding Relationship Between Two Synoptic, Morphologically Similar Fishes, the Western Mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis) and the Blackspotted Topminnow (Fundulus olivaceus)

We sampled fish during the summer of 1999, in Caney Bayou on the campus of the University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff, Jefferson County, in order to study the feeding relationship between the western mosquitofish (Gambusia ajfinis) and the blackspotted topminnow (Fundulus olivaceus). We identified and enumerated the diet items of 56 blackspotted topminnows and 28 mosquitofish that were captured using electroshocking, seining, and dipnetting. Pooled diet items for each species were analyzed using a variety of approaches: percent of diet composition, frequency of occurrence, Levins\u27 measure of diet breadth, and Morisita\u27s measure of diet overlap. Twenty-one percent of mosquitofish and 8.9% of the blackspotted topminnow had empty stomachs. The mean number of individual prey items in mosquitofish stomachs was 2.5 (SD = 2.1), while the mean number of items for blackspotted topminnows was 72.5 (SD = 118.68). Detritus (37%), terrestrial insects (34%) and chironomids (16%) were the three major components of the western mosquitofish diet. Cladocerans comprised 96% of the blackspotted topminnow diets. The diet breadth for the western mosquitofish (0.51) was relatively broad compared to the blackspotted topminnow (0.01). Diet overlap between these species was low (0.01)

Integrating TV/digital data spectrograph system

A 25-mm vidicon camera was previously modified to allow operation in an integration mode for low-light-level astronomical work. The camera was then mated to a low-dispersion spectrograph for obtaining spectral information in the 400 to 750 nm range. A high speed digital video image system was utilized to digitize the analog video signal, place the information directly into computer-type memory, and record data on digital magnetic tape for permanent storage and subsequent analysis

The sovereign yield curve and credit ratings in GIIPS

© 2020 International Review of Finance Ltd. 2020 This paper studies the impact of sovereign credit rating and outlook changes on the shape of the sovereign yield curve using data for five European countries, namely, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain, known as the GIIPS for the period of 2001–2016. We use the dynamic Nelson–Siegel model to estimate the level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve. Subsequently, we employ the vector autoregressive model to estimate the effect of sovereign rating and outlook changes on the sovereign yield curve. We find a significant effect of rating downgrades and an insignificant effect of rating upgrades in all five countries; however, the results for the effect of changes in outlook status are mixed. Our results remain robust to various sensitivity tests

Dynamic and Energetic Stabilization of Persistent Currents in Bose-Einstein Condensates

We study conditions under which vortices in a highly oblate harmonically trapped Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) can be stabilized due to pinning by a blue-detuned Gaussian laser beam, with particular emphasis on the potentially destabilizing effects of laser beam positioning within the BEC. Our approach involves theoretical and numerical exploration of dynamically and energetically stable pinning of vortices with winding number up to $S=6$, in correspondence with experimental observations. Stable pinning is quantified theoretically via Bogoliubov-de Gennes excitation spectrum computations and confirmed via direct numerical simulations for a range of conditions similar to those of experimental observations. The theoretical and numerical results indicate that the pinned winding number, or equivalently the winding number of the superfluid current about the laser beam, decays as a laser beam of fixed intensity moves away from the BEC center. Our theoretical analysis helps explain previous experimental observations, and helps define limits of stable vortex pinning for future experiments involving vortex manipulation by laser beams.Comment: 8 pages 5 figure

Improved cloud-phase determination of low-level liquid and mixed-phase clouds by enhanced polarimetric lidar

The unambiguous retrieval of cloud phase from polarimetric lidar observations is dependent on the assumption that only cloud scattering processes affect polarization measurements. A systematic bias of the traditional lidar depolarization ratio can occur due to a lidar system's inability to accurately measure the entire backscattered signal dynamic range, and these biases are not always identifiable in traditional polarimetric lidar systems. This results in a misidentification of liquid water in clouds as ice, which has broad implications on evaluating surface energy budgets. The Clouds Aerosol Polarization and Backscatter Lidar at Summit, Greenland employs multiple planes of linear polarization, and photon counting and analog detection schemes, to self evaluate, correct, and optimize signal combinations to improve cloud classification. Using novel measurements of diattenuation that are sensitive to both horizontally oriented ice crystals and counting system nonlinear effects, unambiguous measurements are possible by over constraining polarization measurements. This overdetermined capability for cloud-phase determination allows for system errors to be identified and quantified in terms of their impact on cloud properties. It is shown that lidar system dynamic range effects can cause errors in cloud-phase fractional occurrence estimates on the order of 30 % causing errors in attribution of cloud radiative effects on the order of 10–30 %. This paper presents a method to identify and remove lidar system effects from atmospheric polarization measurements and uses co-located sensors at Summit to evaluate this method. Enhanced measurements are achieved in this work with non-orthogonal polarization retrievals as well as analog and photon counting detection facilitating a more complete attribution of radiative effects linked to cloud properties

X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS), Rutherford Back Scattering (RBS) studies

X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), Rutherford Back Scattering (RBS) studies of each of sample received were completed. Since low angle X-ray could not be performed because of instrumentation problems, Auger spectrometry was employed instead. The results of these measurements for each of the samples is discussed in turn

Vortex Formation by Interference of Multiple Trapped Bose-Einstein Condensates

We report observations of vortex formation as a result of merging together multiple $^{87}$Rb Bose-Einstein condensates (BECs) in a confining potential. In this experiment, a trapping potential is partitioned into three sections by a barrier, enabling the simultaneous formation of three independent, uncorrelated condensates. The three condensates then merge together into one BEC, either by removal of the barrier, or during the final stages of evaporative cooling if the barrier energy is low enough; both processes can naturally produce vortices within the trapped BEC. We interpret the vortex formation mechanism as originating in interference between the initially independent condensates, with indeterminate relative phases between the three initial condensates and the condensate merging rate playing critical roles in the probability of observing vortices in the final, single BEC.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figure

Optimization of double pulse pumping for Ni-like Sm x-ray lasers

We report a systematic study of double pulse pumping of the Ni-like Sm x-ray laser at 73 Angstrom, currently the shortest wavelength saturated x-ray laser. It is found that the Sm x-ray laser output can change by orders of magnitude when the intensity ratio of the pumping pulses and their relative delay are varied. Optimum pumping conditions are found and interpreted in terms of a simple model. (C) 1999 American Institute of Physics. [S0021-8979(99)07102-9]

Superorbital expansion tube operation: estimates of flow conditions via numerical simulation

Two new operating conditions of the X3 superorbital expansion tube are studied experimentally and numerically. A two-stage numerical simulation is used to model the flow processes within the whole facility, from the compressed driver gas, through the initial shock-processing of the test gas and then through the unsteady expansion process to the final test flow state. Experimental measurements provide static pressure histories at particular points along the shock and acceleration tubes while the numerical simulations provide complementary information on gas density, temperature and composition. Operating condition properties such as shock speed are both observed in the experiment and produced as a result of the simulation are used to check the reliability of the numerical simulations