The precision of international market sampling for North Sea herring and its influence on assessment

Market sampling is a key source of data for catch-at-age-based assessment. Little has been documented about the influence of potential error in these data on the precision of assessments and the management information they produce. This paper presents the results of a study of the precision of North Sea herring fish market sampling carried out by the UK, Denmark and the Netherlands. Data from eight years of market sampling were analysed to obtain the precision of estimated numbers-at-age in the catch. The market sample data was then used to estimate 1000 realisations of the international catch-at-age and mean weightsat- age in the catch. Three methods of estimating the variability of missing catch data were used and three options for the catch-at-age matrices were computed. These base datasets were utilised to obtain 1000 assessments conditional on the ICA (Integrated Catch-at-age Analysis) model. From the outcome of these assessments the influence of the market sampling programmes on the management of the stock are presented as 95␌onfidence intervals on the main management parameters (recruitment, SSB, F0-1 and F2-6). In addition, the influence of missing data is estimated. The implications of our conclusions on the requirements from a market sampling programme are discusse

Systematic bias in estimates of reproductive potential of an Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stock: implications for stock–recruit theory and management

Stock–recruit relationships that use spawning stock biomass (SSB) to represent reproductive potential assume that the proportion of SSB composed of females and the relative fecundity (number of eggs produced per unit mass) are both constant over time. To test these two assumptions, female-only spawner biomass (FSB) and total egg production (TEP) were estimated for the Northeast Arctic stock of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) over a 56-year time period. The proportion of females (FSB/SSB) varied between 24% and 68%, and the variation was systematic with length such that SSB became more female-biased as the mean length of spawners increased. Relative fecundity of the stock (TEP/SSB) varied between 115 and 355 eggs·g–1 and was significantly, positively correlated with mean length of spawners. Both FSB and TEP gave a different interpretation of the recruitment response to reductions in stock size (overcompensatory) compared with that obtained using SSB (either compensatory or depensatory). There was no difference between SSB and FSB in the assessment of stock status; however, in recent years (1980–2001) TEP fell below the threshold level at which recruitment becomes impaired more frequently than did SSB. This suggests that using SSB as a measure of stock reproductive potential could lead to overly optimistic assessments of stock status

An evaluation of multi-annual management strategies for ICES roundfish stocks

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