Explaining inconsistencies between data on condom use and condom sales

BACKGROUND: Several HIV prevention programs use data on condom sales and survey-based data on condom prevalence to monitor progress. However, such indicators are not always consistent. This paper aims to explain these inconsistencies and to assess whether the number of sex acts and the number of condoms used can be estimated from survey data. This would be useful for program managers, as it would enable estimation of the number of condoms needed for different target groups. METHODS: We use data from six Demographic and Health Surveys to estimate the total annual number of sex acts and number of condoms used. Estimates of the number of sex acts are based on self-reported coital frequency, the proportion reporting intercourse the previous day, and survival methods. Estimates of the number of condoms used are based on self-reported frequency of use, the proportion reporting condom use the previous day and in last intercourse. The estimated number of condoms used is then compared with reported data on condom sales and distribution. RESULTS: Analysis of data on the annual number of condoms sold and distributed to the trade reveals very erratic patterns, which reflect stock-ups at various levels in the distribution chain. Consequently, condom sales data are a very poor indicator of the level of condom use. Estimates of both the number of sexual acts and the number of condoms used vary enormously based on the estimation method used. For several surveys, the highest estimate of the annual number of condoms used is tenfold that of the lowest estimate. CONCLUSIONS: Condom sales to the trade are a poor indicator of levels of condom use, and are therefore insufficient to monitor HIV prevention programs. While survey data on condom prevalence allow more detailed monitoring, converting such data to an estimated number of sex acts and condoms used is not straightforward. The estimation methods yield widely different results, and it is impossible to determine which method is most accurate. Until the reliability of these various estimation methods can be established, estimating the annual number of condoms used from survey data will not be feasible. Collecting survey data on the number of sex acts and the number of condoms used in a fixed time period may enable the calculation of more reliable estimates of the number of sex acts and condoms used

Differentials of fertility in North and South Gondar zones, northwest Ethiopia: A comparative cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Ethiopia is one of the most densely populated countries in Africa with an estimated population of 77.1 million in mid-2007. Uncontrolled fertility has adversely influenced the socio-economic, demographic and environmental situations of the country. It is one of the largest and poorest countries that, even in the midst of crisis, has maintained high levels of fertility. This study was aimed at investigating the most important factors influencing fertility behavior in Northwest Ethiopia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A comparative cross-sectional study which included 2424 women aged 25 years and above was undertaken in the Amhara region of Northwest Ethiopia. The study subjects were grouped into high fertile and low fertile categories. There were 1011 and 1413 women in the high and low fertile groups, respectively. A multi-stage cluster sampling stratified by place of residence was employed to select the required study subjects. Both bivariate and multivariate logistic regression techniques were used to analyze the data.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among the 25 variables considered in this study, only 9 of them were found significantly and independently associated with the level of fertility. Women with at least secondary education were at a lower risk of high fertility with OR = 0.37 (95% CI: 0.21 to 0.64) compared to those with no formal education. However, women with primary education did not show any significant difference when compared with the same baseline group. Age at first marriage was inversely associated with the number of children ever born alive. Place of residence, household expenditure, number of children who have died, attitude towards using contraceptives, women's knowledge on the safe period, and current marital status were the other variables that showed significant associations with the level of fertility.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Female education beyond the primary level, reduced infant and child mortality, delayed marriage and correct knowledge on the safe period during the menstrual cycle were amongst the main factors that had a bearing on high fertility.</p

Counting the costs: Comparing depot medroxyprogesterone acetate and norethisterone oenanthate utilisation patterns in South Africa

BACKGROUND: In South Africa, where health care resources are limited, it is important to ensure that drugs provision and use is rational. The Essential Drug List includes depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA) and norethisterone oenanthate (NET-EN) as injectable progestagen-only contraceptives (IPCs), and both products are extensively used. OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: Utilisation patterns of the injectable contraceptive products DMPA and NET-EN are compared in the context of current knowledge of the safety and efficacy of these agents. Utilisation patterns were analysed by means of a Pareto (ABC) analysis of IPCs issued from 4 South African provincial pharmaceutical depots over 3 financial years. A case study from rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, is used to examine utilisation patterns and self-reported side effects experienced by 187 women using IPCs. RESULTS: IPCs accounted for a substantial share of total state expenditure on drugs. While more DMPA than NET-EN was issued, NET-EN distribution from 2 depots increased over the 3-year period. Since DMPA was cheaper, if all NET-EN clients in the 1999/2000 financial year (annualised) had used DMPA, the 4 depots could have saved 4.95 million South African Rands on product acquisition costs alone. The KZN case study showed slightly more NET-EN (54%) than DMPA (46%) use; no significant differences in self-reported side effects; and that younger women were more likely to use NET-EN than DMPA (p = 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Providing IPCs on the basis of age is not appropriate or cost effective. Rational use of these products should include consideration of the cost of prescribing one over another

Agriculture and Nutrition in Bangladesh: Mapping Evidence to Pathways

Background: Although much work has been done on the theoretical links between agriculture and nutrition, there is limited understanding of the evidence from observational and experimental research studies on the impacts of agriculture programs on nutrition outcomes. Objective: To assess the emphasis of the literature on different agriculture–nutrition pathways in Bangladesh. Methods: Twenty databases and Web sites were searched, yielding more than 2400 resources that were pared down through an iterative, eliminative process to 60 articles. These articles were then rated for quality and mapped to 1 of the 6 agriculture–nutrition pathways. Results: The body of evidence reveals gaps in knowledge in all of the pathways, but especially in the areas of agriculture as a source of livelihoods, and women’s role as intermediaries between agriculture and good nutrition and health within their household. Conclusion: More research is needed on the links between agriculture and nutrition in country-specific settings, particularly as regards the role of women. Nutrition-related outcomes, such as dietary diversity and women’s empowerment, need to be measured more explicitly when evaluating the impact of agricultural production systems and development initiatives.Department for International Development (DFID)UKAI

A qualitative exploration of the human resource policy implications of voluntary counselling and testing scale-up in Kenya: applying a model for policy analysis

Background: Kenya experienced rapid scale up of HIV testing and counselling services in government health services from 2001. We set out to examine the human resource policy implications of scaling up HIV testing and counselling in Kenya and to analyse the resultant policy against a recognised theoretical framework of health policy reform (policy analysis triangle). Methods: Qualitative methods were used to gain in-depth insights from policy makers who shaped scale up. This included 22 in-depth interviews with Voluntary Counselling and Testing (VCT) task force members, critical analysis of 53 sets of minutes and diary notes. We explore points of consensus and conflict amongst policymakers in Kenya and analyse this content to assess who favoured and resisted new policies, how scale up was achieved and the importance of the local context in which scale up occurred. Results: The scale up of VCT in Kenya had a number of human resource policy implications resulting from the introduction of lay counsellors and their authorisation to conduct rapid HIV testing using newly introduced rapid testing technologies. Our findings indicate that three key groups of actors were critical: laboratory professionals, counselling associations and the Ministry of Health. Strategic alliances between donors, NGOs and these three key groups underpinned the process. The process of reaching consensus required compromise and time commitment but was critical to a unified nationwide approach. Policies around quality assurance were integral in ensuring standardisation of content and approach. Conclusion: The introduction and scale up of new health service initiatives such as HIV voluntary counselling and testing necessitates changes to existing health systems and modification of entrenched interests around professional counselling and laboratory testing. Our methodological approach enabled exploration of complexities of scale up of HIV testing and counselling in Kenya. We argue that a better understanding of the diverse actors, the context and the process, is required to mitigate risks and maximise impact

Reductions in abortion-related mortality following policy reform: evidence from Romania, South Africa and Bangladesh

Unsafe abortion is a significant contributor to worldwide maternal mortality; however, abortion law and policy liberalization could lead to drops in unsafe abortion and related deaths. This review provides an analysis of changes in abortion mortality in three countries where significant policy reform and related service delivery occurred. Drawing on peer-reviewed literature, population data and grey literature on programs and policies, this paper demonstrates the policy and program changes that led to declines in abortion-related mortality in Romania, South Africa and Bangladesh. In all three countries, abortion policy liberalization was followed by implementation of safe abortion services and other reproductive health interventions. South Africa and Bangladesh trained mid-level providers to offer safe abortion and menstrual regulation services, respectively, Romania improved contraceptive policies and services, and Bangladesh made advances in emergency obstetric care and family planning. The findings point to the importance of multi-faceted and complementary reproductive health reforms in successful implementation of abortion policy reform