Day 3: Friday, August 6, 2004: National Center for Atmospheric Research

1 page (includes illustration)

Day 3: Friday, August 6, 2004: National Center for Atmospheric Research

1 page (includes illustration)

[Invited] A Study of Large Wind Shears Near the Mesopause

第6回極域科学シンポジウム分野横断型セッション：[IM] 横断　中層大気・熱圏11月17日（火）　統計数理研究所 セミナー室2（D304

AGENDA: Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management

The swollen creeks of Boulder, Colorado provided a fitting backdrop for the “Water, Climate and Uncertainty” conference at the Natural Resources Law Center of the University of Colorado in June 2003. Recognizing the importance of providing a forum for discussions between water managers, lawyers, policy makers, and scientists, Doug Kenney, the conference\u27s organizer, assumed the responsibility of master of ceremonies, providing thoughtful transitions between speakers and sessions while throwing some humor into the mix. Under his direction, luminaries in the fields of science, law and policy engaged a wide range of issues related to the future of water management. The twenty-fourth annual conference was divided into five sessions. Session One was given the thought-provoking title “The Future Isn’t What It Used to Be,” echoing the words of the inimitable Yogi Berra; the wisdom of the baseball legend with a penchant for paradox was repeatedly invoked during the conference. This first session was further divided into two parts: Western Climate History and Western Climate Future. Session Two, entitled “Science, Policy, Law and Extra-Strength Tylenol,” considered current and future applications of science in policy and law, as well as the headaches attending these applications. The simple title of Session Three, “Basins and Borders,” belied the complexity of issues facing communities from the municipal level up to the international level. The Keynote Lecture that served as an intermission was delivered by the Assistant Secretary of the Interior for Water and Science, Bennett Raley. Session Four, “Additional Perspectives,” aimed at identifying oft’ overlooked voices and issues with respect to water management decisions. Finally, the ambitiously named Fifth Session, “Tying It All Together,” promised as much as it delivered. -- Steve Bailey, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) See also Mark Shea, Conference Reports: Water Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water, Law, Policy, and Management, 7 U. Denv. Water L. Rev. 226 (2003)

Impact of large-scale climatic oscillations on snowfall-related climate parameters in the world's major downhill ski areas: a review

Skiers are passionate about finding the best snow conditions. Snow conditions in thousands of ski resorts around the world depend mainly on natural snowfall, particularly in the case of backcountry skiing. In various mountain ranges popular among skiers, snowfall is strongly linked to large-scale climatic oscillations. This paper reviews existing information on the impacts of several of these phenomena, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and North Pacific Index, on snowfall-related climate parameters in the world's major ski areas. We found that in each of the studied areas, one or more large-scale climatic oscillations affected snowfall-related climate parameters. Understanding the predictability of such oscillations is high on the climate research agenda. If this research leads to improved predictability in the coming years, this could be combined with the knowledge summarized in our paper on the relationships between climatic oscillations and snow-related parameters to provide useful information for winter sports and other snow-related fields. © 2012 International Mountain Society

Discrete vortex representation of magnetohydrodynamics

We present an alternative approach to statistical analysis of an intermittent ideal MHD fluid in two dimensions, based on the hydrodynamical discrete vortex model applied to the Elsasser variables. The model contains negative temperature states which predict the formation of magnetic islands, but also includes a natural limit under which the equilibrium states revert to the familiar twin-vortex states predicted by hydrodynamical turbulence theories. Numerical dynamical calculations yield equilibrium spectra in agreement with the theoretical predictions

Statistical Emulation of Winter Ambient Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations From Emission Changes in China

Air pollution exposure remains a leading public health problem in China. The use of chemical transport models to quantify the impacts of various emission changes on air quality is limited by their large computational demands. Machine learning models can emulate chemical transport models to provide computationally efficient predictions of outputs based on statistical associations with inputs. We developed novel emulators relating emission changes in five key anthropogenic sectors (residential, industry, land transport, agriculture, and power generation) to winter ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations across China. The emulators were optimized based on Gaussian process regressors with Matern kernels. The emulators predicted 99.9% of the variance in PM2.5 concentrations for a given input configuration of emission changes. PM2.5 concentrations are primarily sensitive to residential (51%–94% of first‐order sensitivity index), industrial (7%–31%), and agricultural emissions (0%–24%). Sensitivities of PM2.5 concentrations to land transport and power generation emissions are all under 5%, except in South West China where land transport emissions contributed 13%. The largest reduction in winter PM2.5 exposure for changes in the five emission sectors is by 68%–81%, down to 15.3–25.9 μg m−3, remaining above the World Health Organization annual guideline of 10 μg m−3. The greatest reductions in PM2.5 exposure are driven by reducing residential and industrial emissions, emphasizing the importance of emission reductions in these key sectors. We show that the annual National Air Quality Target of 35 μg m−3 is unlikely to be achieved during winter without strong emission reductions from the residential and industrial sectors

Societal Impacts Program (SIP)

This is the website for the Societal Impacts Program (SIP), located within the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The SIP's overarching goal is to help society benefit from current and emerging forecasting capabilities by integrating social science into weather research and applications through cutting-edge research and capacity building. The website includes information about the SIP's research projects and publications

cmip5 output1 NCAR CCSM4 lgm

lgm is an experiment of the CMIP5 - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ( https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/mips/cmip5 ). CMIP5 is meant to provide a framework for coordinated climate change experiments for the next five years and thus includes simulations for assessment in the AR5 as well as others that extend beyond the AR5. lgm (3.5 Last glacial maximum) - Version 2: Consistent with PMIP (Paleo Model Intercomparison Project) requirements. Impose Last Glacial Maximum (21 kyrs ago) conditions including ice sheets and atmospheric concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gasses. Experiment design: https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/mips/cmip5/experiment_design.html List of output variables: https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/mips/cmip5/datadescription.html Output: time series per variable in model grid spatial resolution in netCDF format Earth System model and the simulation information: CIM repository Entry name/title of data are specified according to the Data Reference Syntax ( https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/mips/cmip5/docs/cmip5_data_reference_syntax.pdf ) as activity/product/institute/model/experiment/frequency/modeling realm/MIP table/ensemble member/version number/variable name/CMOR filename.nc

cmip5 output1 NCAR CCSM4 past1000

past1000 is an experiment of the CMIP5 - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ( https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/mips/cmip5 ). CMIP5 is meant to provide a framework for coordinated climate change experiments for the next five years and thus includes simulations for assessment in the AR5 as well as others that extend beyond the AR5. past1000 (3.6 Last millennium) - Version 2: Consistent with PMIP (Paleo Model Intercomparison Project) requirements, Impose evolving conditions including: Solar Variations and Volcanic Aerosols. Experiment design: https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/mips/cmip5/experiment_design.html List of output variables: https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/mips/cmip5/datadescription.html Output: time series per variable in model grid spatial resolution in netCDF format Earth System model and the simulation information: CIM repository Entry name/title of data are specified according to the Data Reference Syntax ( https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/mips/cmip5/docs/cmip5_data_reference_syntax.pdf ) as activity/product/institute/model/experiment/frequency/modeling realm/MIP table/ensemble member/version number/variable name/CMOR filename.nc