Modelling the Main ionospheric trough using the Electron Density Assimilative Model (EDAM) with assimilated GPS TEC

The main ionospheric trough is a large-scale spatial depletion in the electron density distribution at the interface between the high- and mid-latitude ionosphere. In western Europe it appears in early evening, progresses equatorward during the night, and retreats rapidly poleward at dawn. It exhibits substantial day-to-day variability and under conditions of increased geomagnetic activity it moves progressively to lower latitudes. Steep gradients on the trough-walls on either side of the trough minimum, and their variability, can cause problems for radio applications. Numerous studies have sought to characterize and quantify the trough behaviour. The Electron Density Assimilative Model (EDAM) models the ionosphere on a global scale. It assimilates observations into a background ionosphere, the International Reference Ionosphere 2007 (IRI2007), to provide a full 3-D representation of the ionospheric plasma distribution at specified times and days. This current investigation studied the capability of EDAM to model the ionosphere in the region of the main trough. Total electron content (TEC) measurements from 46 GPS stations in western Europe from September to December 2002 were assimilated into EDAM to provide a model of the ionosphere in the trough region. Vertical electron content profiles through the model revealed the trough and the detail of its structure. Statistical results are presented of the latitude of the trough minimum, TEC at the minimum and of other defined parameters that characterize the trough structure. The results are compared with previous observations made with the Navy Ionospheric Monitoring System (NIMS), and reveal the potential of EDAM to model the large-scale structure of the ionospherepublishersversionPeer reviewe

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

A prenylated dsRNA sensor protects against severe COVID-19

Inherited genetic factors can influence the severity of COVID-19, but the molecular explanation underpinning a genetic association is often unclear. Intracellular antiviral defenses can inhibit the replication of viruses and reduce disease severity. To better understand the antiviral defenses relevant to COVID-19, we used interferon-stimulated gene (ISG) expression screening to reveal that OAS1, through RNase L, potently inhibits SARS-CoV-2. We show that a common splice-acceptor SNP (Rs10774671) governs whether people express prenylated OAS1 isoforms that are membrane-associated and sense specific regions of SARS-CoV-2 RNAs, or only express cytosolic, nonprenylated OAS1 that does not efficiently detect SARS-CoV-2. Importantly, in hospitalized patients, expression of prenylated OAS1 was associated with protection from severe COVID-19, suggesting this antiviral defense is a major component of a protective antiviral response