Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability

An approach is proposed to assess hydrological simulation uncertainty originating from internal atmospheric variability. The latter is one of three major factors contributing to uncertainty of simulated climate change projections (along with so-called "forcing" and "climate model" uncertainties). Importantly, the role of internal atmospheric variability is most visible over spatio-temporal scales of water management in large river basins. Internal atmospheric variability is represented by large ensemble simulations (45 members) with the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model. Ensemble simulations are performed using identical prescribed lower boundary conditions (observed sea surface temperature, SST, and sea ice concentration, SIC, for 1979–2012) and constant external forcing parameters but different initial conditions of the atmosphere. The ensemble of bias-corrected ECHAM5 outputs and ensemble averaged ECHAM5 output are used as a distributed input for the ECOMAG and SWAP hydrological models. The corresponding ensembles of runoff hydrographs are calculated for two large rivers of the Arctic basin: the Lena and Northern Dvina rivers. A number of runoff statistics including the mean and the standard deviation of annual, monthly and daily runoff, as well as annual runoff trend, are assessed. Uncertainties of runoff statistics caused by internal atmospheric variability are estimated. It is found that uncertainty of the mean and the standard deviation of runoff has a significant seasonal dependence on the maximum during the periods of spring–summer snowmelt and summer–autumn rainfall floods. Noticeable nonlinearity of the hydrological models' results in the ensemble ECHAM5 output is found most strongly expressed for the Northern Dvina River basin. It is shown that the averaging over ensemble members effectively filters the stochastic term related to internal atmospheric variability. Simulated discharge trends are close to normally distributed around the ensemble mean value, which fits well to empirical estimates and, for the Lena River, indicates that a considerable portion of the observed trend can be externally driven

DETERMINATION OF RADON, URANIUM AND THORIUM IN THE SPRINGS OF YEKATERINBURG AND THE SVERDLOVSK REGION

In this work, the study of water from 25 springs in Yekaterinburg and the Sverdlovsk region for the content of radon, uranium and thorium activities was carried out.Исследование выполнено при финансовой поддержке РФФИ и Правительства Свердловской области в рамках научного проекта № 20-43-660055

ВЫБОР ГЕПАРИНА ДЛЯ АНТИТРОМБОТИЧЕСКОЙ МОДИФИКАЦИИ СОСУДИСТЫХ БИОПРОТЕЗОВ

Purpose. Extra treatment of biomaterial with heparin is a promising method of artery xenograft hemocompatibility increase. The study was aimed at experimentally assessing quantitative parameters of unfractionated and low molecular weight heparins immobilization on the biomaterial and their impact on graft hemocompatibility.Materials and methods. Xenoarteries treated with ethylene glycol diglycidyl ether were used. Unfractionated heparin (UFH) by NPO «Synthez» (Russia) and low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) – enoxaparin sodium by «Clexane» (France) were used to treat the biomaterial. The amount of immobilized heparins was assessed using three independent methods. The impact of heparin on biomaterial hemocompatibility was assessed in vitro.Results. The amount of immobilized enoxaparin was significantly lower than that of UFH. However, this amount of LMWH was enough for having a smoothing effect on xenogafts surface and decreasing platelet aggregation by 24 %. Biomaterial treatment with both UFH and LMWH signifi cantly decreased blood protein adsorption.Conclusion. Based on the obtained data we can suggest that enoxaparin sodium has a greater potential for antithrombotic modification of epoxy-treated arterial grafts.Цель. Оценить количественные параметры иммобилизации на биоматериале нефракционированного и низкомолекулярного гепаринов и их влияние на гемосовместимость протезов в эксперименте.Материалы и методы. Были использованы ксеноартерии, консервированные диглицидиловым эфиром этиленгликоля. Модификацию образцов проводили в растворе нефракционированного гепарина (НПО «Синтез», Россия) и низкомолекулярного эноксапарина натрия «Клексан» (Санофи, Франция). Количество иммобилизованного гепарина оценивали тремя независимыми методами. Влияние гепарина на гемосовместимость биоматериала исследовали in vitro.Результаты. Количество эноксапарина, связанного с биоматериалом, определили достоверно меньше, чем нефракционированного гепарина. В то же время этого количества достаточно для сглаживания рельефа поверхности материала и снижения максимума агрегации тромбоцитов на 24 %. Модификация биоматериала как нефракционированным, так и низкомолекулярным гепарином достоверно уменьшает адсорбцию белков крови.Заключение. Эноксапарин натрия наиболее перспективен для антитромботической модификации эпоксиобработанных биопротезов артерий.

Rheumatoid Arthritis is an Autoimmune Disease Triggered by Proteus Urinary Tract Infection

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic and disabling polyarthritic disease, which affects mainly women in middle and old age

Диагностическая ценность прокальцитонина и С-реактивного белка при врожденных инфекциях у детей с экстремально низкой и очень низкой массой тела при рождении

The high frequency of infectious complications in the early neonatal period of adaptation in infants with extremely low (ELBW) and very low birth weight (VLBW) attracts particular attention. The aim of our study was to evaluate the sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of C-reactive protein and procalcitonin in congenital pneumonia and congenital sepsis in newborn infants with extremely low and very low birth weight.Methods. In 160 preterm newborns that were included in our prospective study, 33 had early neonatal sepsis, 42 children had congenital pneumonia, and 85 infants were without neonatal infection. A comprehensive clinical and laboratoryinstrumental examination of the newborn was done, including determining the concentration of C-reactive protein and procalcitonin at the age of 48–72 hours of life. Results. Low sensitivity of CRP at the age of 48–72 hours of life in congenital sepsis and congenital pneumonia was observed. However, under these pathological conditions CRP and PCT are characterized by high specificity. It should also be noted that PCT has a high sensitivity in children with congenital sepsis aged 48–72 hours. Moreover, PCT also has a high specificity (Sp 80,6%), which determines its advantage in the use of sepsis diagnosis in extremely premature infants compared to CRP.Conclusion. Maximum specificity reaches 100%, co-located with the assessment of CRP and PCT, which determines the feasibility of using this combination for verification of congenital infectious conditions such as sepsis and pneumonia in children ELBW and VLBW aged 48–72 hours.Актуальность. Высокая частота инфекционных осложнений в раннем неонатальном периоде у новорожденных с экстремально низкой (ЭНМТ) и очень низкой массой тела (ОНМТ) при рождении обусловливает необходимость ранней диагностики для уменьшения количества осложнений. Цель: оценка чувствительности и специфичности С-реактивного белка (СРБ) и прокальцитонина (ПКТ) при врожденной пневмонии и врожденном сепсисе у новорожденных детей с ЭНМТ и ОНМТ. Пациенты и методы. В проспективное когортное исследование включено 160 новорожденных с ЭНМТ и ОНМТ, из них 33 с врожденным сепсисом, 42 с врожденной пневмонией, 85 с основным диагнозом респираторного дистресс-синдрома. В первые 48–72 ч жизни новорожденным проводилось комплексное клиническое и лабораторно-инструментальное обследование, включающее определение концентрации СРБ и ПКТ.Результаты. Отмечена невысокая чувствительность СРБ в первые 48–72 ч жизни при врожденном сепсисе и врожденной пневмонии. Однако, при данных патологических состояниях и СРБ, и ПКТ характеризуются высокой специфичностью. Следует также отметить, что ПКТ обладает высокой чувствительностью в первые 48–72 ч жизни у детей с врожденным сепсисом. Кроме того, данный показатель имеет также высокую специфичность (80,6%), что определяет преимущество его изолированного использования по сравнению с СРБ при диагностике врожденного сепсиса у глубоконедоношенных детей. Заключение. Максимальная специфичность, достигающая 100%, выявлена при сочетанной оценке СРБ и ПКТ, что определяет целесообразность использования данной комбинации для верификации таких врожденных инфекционных состояний, как сепсис и пневмония, у детей с ЭНМТ и ОНМТ в возрасте 48–72 ч

C-Reactive Protein and Procalcitonin Diagnostic Value in Congenital Infection in Newborns with Extremely Low and Very Low Birth Weight

The high frequency of infectious complications in the early neonatal period of adaptation in infants with extremely low (ELBW) and very low birth weight (VLBW) attracts particular attention. The aim of our study was to evaluate the sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of C-reactive protein and procalcitonin in congenital pneumonia and congenital sepsis in newborn infants with extremely low and very low birth weight.Methods. In 160 preterm newborns that were included in our prospective study, 33 had early neonatal sepsis, 42 children had congenital pneumonia, and 85 infants were without neonatal infection. A comprehensive clinical and laboratoryinstrumental examination of the newborn was done, including determining the concentration of C-reactive protein and procalcitonin at the age of 48–72 hours of life. Results. Low sensitivity of CRP at the age of 48–72 hours of life in congenital sepsis and congenital pneumonia was observed. However, under these pathological conditions CRP and PCT are characterized by high specificity. It should also be noted that PCT has a high sensitivity in children with congenital sepsis aged 48–72 hours. Moreover, PCT also has a high specificity (Sp 80,6%), which determines its advantage in the use of sepsis diagnosis in extremely premature infants compared to CRP.Conclusion. Maximum specificity reaches 100%, co-located with the assessment of CRP and PCT, which determines the feasibility of using this combination for verification of congenital infectious conditions such as sepsis and pneumonia in children ELBW and VLBW aged 48–72 hours