The Contemporaneous Correlation of Structural Shocks and Inflation— Output Variability in Pakistan

Monetary policy has changed in a number of ways during the last two decades . Along with the other characteristics, modern monetary policy is forward-looking, and the central banks respond contemporaneously to structural shocks that are expected to make inflation deviate from the future targets. This study aims at investigating this aspect of the monetary policy for Pakistan. Using a modified version of Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) developed by Enders and Hurn (2007), we have found a weak response of policy to supply-side shocks as the correlation coefficient between the demand and supply shocks is only 0.041. Moreover, the results show that the demand shocks have no significant contribution to output variability. On the other hand, both the demand and supply shocks, along with the foreign supply shocks, significantly contribute to inflation variability.Monetary Policy, Contemporaneous Correlation, Pakistan, Structural Shocks, Vector Autoregression

Does financial instability weaken the finance-growth nexus? A case for Pakistan

The paper investigates whether financial instability weakens finance-growth nexus in case of Pakistan. In doing so ARDL bounds testing approach is used for cointegration among variables over the period of 1971-2005. The results show that financial instability does weaken finance-growth nexus. Trade openness increases economic growth through spillover effects. Increasing inflation retards economic growth i.e., lower inflation rates are necessary for sustained economic growth. Political instability impedes economic growth. The present study indicates new direction for policy makers to sustain the pace of economic growth and avoid financial crisis.Financial Crisis, Financial Development, Economic Growth

Does financial instability weaken the finance-growth nexus? A case for Pakistan

The paper investigates whether financial instability weakens finance-growth nexus in case of Pakistan. In doing so ARDL bounds testing approach is used for cointegration among variables over the period of 1971-2005. The results show that financial instability does weaken finance-growth nexus. Trade openness increases economic growth through spillover effects. Increasing inflation retards economic growth i.e., lower inflation rates are necessary for sustained economic growth. Political instability impedes economic growth. The present study indicates new direction for policy makers to sustain the pace of economic growth and avoid financial crisis.Financial Crisis, Financial Development, Economic Growth

Does economic growth cause terrorism in Pakistan?

This paper analyzes the relationship between terrorism and economic growth for Pakistan by incorporating capital and trade openness. We used the data from 1971-2010 and have applied ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration to examine the long run relationship between the variables. The VECM Granger causality approach is used to detect the direction of causality between terrorism and economic growth. Our empirical results confirm the existence of long run relationship between economic growth and terrorism. The Granger causality analysis indicates bidirectional causality between terrorism and capital, trade openness and capital, and terrorism and trade openness. However, unidirectional causality is found running from economic growth to terrorism.Terrorism, Economic Growth, Cointegration and Causality

Risk factors for stroke and TIA\u27s in Pakistan: a community-based study

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the frequency of risk factors for stroke and transient ischemic attacks in Pakistan; a multi-city community-based study. METHOD: This cross-sectional community-based study was conducted in various health care facilities including government funded District Head Quarters hospitals, private hospitals and medical centers, and community-based clinics across 27 cities all over Pakistan over a period of three years between 2013 and 2015. Nearly 900 patients were screened during stroke (Falij) screening camps at these facilities and the data regarding past stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) symptoms were recorded along with relevant neurological examinations. A 25 item self-administered questionnaire was used to get relevant information. RESULTS: A total of 651 (72.33%) responded to questionnaire from the 900 screened patients. Among the responders, 403 (61.90%) were males and 248 (38.10%) were females with an average age of 50 ± 15 years. Respondents belonged to six different ethnicities, the largest group were of Punjabi origin (49.90%) followed by Urdu speaking (25.10%) belonged to different professions. Paralysis of a complete body side or an arm or a leg was experienced by 155 (23.81%) patients at least once in the life time knowing stroke as the underlying cause, of which 122 (19.0%) patients reported an event of sudden paralysis experienced during the last year. A total of 179 (27.50%) had felt numbness/tingling in limbs or face while they knew those as symptoms of stroke or TIA and 134 (20.58.3%) patients reported a cardiac arrhythmia at least once in a life time. Common risk factors assessment showed that 217 (33.33%) were diagnosed with diabetes, while 315 (48.38%) were hypertensive. Among the respondents, 88 (13.51%) reported in affirmative to smoking status while 60 (9.21%) reported using smokeless tobacco in the form of Pan/Gutka. More than 180 (27.64%) had raised cholesterol, while seizures, chest pain, heart attack, coronary bypass surgery, pain in legs during walking, snoring was reported by 23 (3.53%), 109 (16.74%), 42 (6.45%), 24 (3.68%), 237 (36.40%) and 150 (23.04%) patients respectively

HUBUNGAN PERSONAL HYGIENE, SUHU DAN PENCAHAYAAN DENGAN KEJADIAN PENYAKIT SKABIES DI PONDOK PESANTREN AL – FALAH SUKAENING KABUPATEN BANDUNG BARAT

Skabies adalah penyakit kuit yang terjadi pada manusia dan sering terjadi di pondok pesantren dikarenakan Personal hygiene yang kurang baik pentilasi, pencahayaan yang kurang dan kepadatan hunian. Skabies bisa juga disebut penyakit budugan sering di jumpai di pondok pesantren asrama dan panti asuhan. Tujuan penelitian untuk mengetahui hubungan personal hygiene, suhu dan pencahayaan dengan kejadian Penyakit skabies di pondok pesantren Al - Falah Sukawening Kabupaten Bandung Barat. Jenis penelitian ini adalah menggunakan desain cross sectional dengan subjek penelitian ini adalah 68 santri yang tinggal di Pondok Pesantren Al – Falah Sukawening. Pengambilan sampel dilakukan dengan teknik total sampling. Pengumpulan data menggunakan data primer dengan menggunakan kuesioner. Hasil penelitian kepada 68 responden, menunjukkan bahwa suhu (p=0,001), pencahayaan (p=0.001), dan personal hygiene (p=0,022) memiliki hubungan dengan kejadian skabies. Sebaiknya meningkatkan upaya penyuluhan di pondok pesantren mengenai sanitasi lingkungan yang baik dan mengenai tata cara melakukan dan menjaga personal hygiene yang baik.   Scabies is a disease that occurs in humans and often occurs in Islamic boarding schools due to poor personal hygiene, ventilation, insufficient lighting, and density of occupancy. Scabies can also be called Budugan disease which is often encountered in boarding schools and orphanages. The research objective was to determine the relationship between personal hygiene, temperature, and lighting with the incidence of scabies in Al - Falah Islamic boarding school, Sukawening, West Bandung Regency. This type of research is using a cross-sectional design with the subjects of this study being 68 students who live in Al-Falah Sukawening Islamic Boarding School. Sampling was done by using the total sampling technique. Data collection using primary data using a questionnaire. The results of the study on 68 respondents showed that temperature (p = 0.001), lighting (p = 0.001), and personal hygiene (p = 0.022) had a relationship with the incidence of scabies. It is better if you increase the extension efforts in Islamic boarding schools regarding good environmental sanitation and the procedures for doing and maintaining good personal hygiene

The Cost of Unserved Energy: Evidence from Selected Industrial Cities of Pakistan

This study is an attempt to explore the cost of unserved energy due to power outages in Pakistan that started in 2007. The study is based on a survey conducted for four major industrial cities of Punjab—Gujrat, Faisalabad, Gujranwala, and Sialkot. In addition to quantification of output losses, the effect on employment, cost of production, and delay in supply orders are also examined. The output loss is quantified using two-dimensional analyses, controlling for variations in the duration of outages and in the shift hours. The survey data reveal that employment has not suffered any significant drop due to alternative energy arrangements. These arrangements, nevertheless, have increased the production cost of the firms. Delays in the delivery of supply orders are also due to energy shortage. The study reports that the total industrial output loss varies between 12 percent and 37 percent, with Punjab as the major affected province.Energy Crises, Output Loss, Pakistan

Oil Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy and Economic Activity

This study quantifies the impact of oil price shocks and the subsequent monetary policy response on output for Pakistan. It employs a quarterly Structural Vector Auto-regression framework for the period 1993–2015. It first discovers that Hamilton’s (1996) Net Oil Price Increase indicator appropriately reveals most of the oil price shocks hitting Pakistan’s economy. We find that a contractionary monetary policy, resulting from the oil price shocks, contributes to significant output loss in Pakistan. After encountering the Lucas critique, the present study finds that around 42 percent of the output loss is due to the ensuing tight monetary policy. This suggests that the central bank of Pakistan can reduce the impact of oil price shocks by reducing its intervention in the market. JEL Classification: E1, E3, E5 Keywords: Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy, Structural Vector Autoregressio

EFFECTIVENESSTHE USE OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP LEARNING MODULE BASED TUTORIAL MULTIMEDIA IN VOCATIONAL HIGH SCHOOL

Abstract: The purpose of this research was to examine the effectiveness of the use of Entrepreneurship learning modules based tutorial multimediaconsists of two indicators, namely:(1) effectively enhance students’ creativity, and (2) effectively enhance the learning outcomes of students. The entrepreneurship Module-based multimedia, equipped with CD tutorials that can provide motivation and inspiration for students to assess the material well and put it into practice through tasks, to produce graduates students who are qualified, productive and able to compete in the era of the Asean Economic Community (AEC). The method used to test the effectiveness of the use of Entrepreneurship module based multimedia tutorial is a Quasi experimental with the shape of Time Series Design, using one group was given treatment. Before the treated group were given a pretest to four times, with a view to determine the stability and clarity of the circumstances of the group before being treated.Samples were taken proportionatelyof students in class XI numbered 30 people. The research located in SMKN 5 Makassar, South Sulawesi, on even semester 2015/ 2016. Based on observations and analysis of data on the use of Entrepreneurship module based tutorial multimedia, the results of this research are: (1) The use of Entrepreneurship learning modules based tutorial multimedia effectively improve the creativity of learners, (2) The use of Entrepreneurship learning modules based tutorial multimedia can enhance the learning outcomes of students. Thus, it was concluded that the entrepreneurial learning modules based on effective use of multimedia in vocational high schools, because it can raise achievement motivation of learners, so that creativity and achievement of learners can be increased