Energy Prices Volatility and the United Kingdom: Evidence from a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

This paper analyses the consequences and effects of volatile energy prices in the UK. The evidence provided are from an estimated DSGE model of energy. The model is applied on filtered data from 1981:Q1 to 2013:Q1 and evaluated by the indirect inference testing. In analysing the structural shocks, the study found higher volatility in energy prices shock during the Great Recession compared to the sample period. The high volatility of energy prices shock caused inflationary pressures in the economy. The study found energy prices shock amplified the Great Recession by significantly contributing to the fall in output. Thus, energy prices shock is an important driver of economic activity. However, given the shocks are stationary, energy prices shock is temporary. Therefore, all consequences of energy prices in the economy are short-term. By implication, when volatile energy prices create an output shortfall, monetary policy is the tool used to off-set short-term falls in output. We find results persists with robustness check. The findings justified why the DSGE model is a policymakers’ workhorse

Models of energy in the United Kingdom

In this thesis, I examine the impact of energy price shocks in the United Kingdom using a New-Keynsian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model and a classic Real Business Cycle (RBC) model. The models are augmented with real rigidities and driven by exogenous shocks. Chapter 1 examines a DSGE model with New-Keynesian Philips Curve with three outputs of energy (petrol and utility), and non-energy output, using filtered data (1981:Q1-2014:Q4) of the UK. Chapter 2 examines a two-sector (RBC) model of energy intensive output and non-energy intensive output, using unfiltered data (1990:Q1-2014:Q4) of the UK. The models are econometrically estimated using indirect inference test that includes Monte Carlo simulation. I show how the study can be quantitatively applied by evaluating the effects of different shocks on output, relative prices and interest rate. I also show how energy price shocks affect output, asset prices and aggregate consumption in a classic RBC model. By decomposition, the changes in these variables caused by each of the structural shocks showed that a fall in output during the financial crisis period 2008:Q2 to 2009:Q4 was driven by energy price shocks and sector-specific productivity shocks. Conversely, in the DSGE model with NKPC, the changes in these variables caused by each of the structural shocks showed that a fall in output during the financial crisis period 2008:Q2 to 2009:Q4 was driven by domestic demand shocks (consumption preference, government spending and capital adjustment cost), oil prices shock and world demand shock. I found why the energy price shock reduces GDP in the models: In NKPC model with stationary shocks this is only a temporary terms of trade shock and so GDP only falls briefly, such that, the UK can borrow against such a temporary fall. In the RBC two-sector model, I found, it must be that the terms of trade rise permanently when world energy price increase as it is non-stationary and there is no other way to balance the current account than to reduce absorption due to lack of substitute for energy inputs. Finally, I found that the RBC two-sector model with non-stationary shocks performs better than NKPC model with stationary shocks. The performance can be credited to using unfiltered-data on the RBC model. This thesis show how estimated models can create additional input to the policymaker’s choice of models through the economic shocks’ effects of the macroeconomic variables

Effect of Hibiscus sabdariffa (Calyxes) water extract on the in vitro availability of lisinopril

Background: The concurrent use of herbs and drugs for the treatment of various ailments is a common practice amongst patients; a practice that could result in drug-herb interaction.Objectives: This study is aimed at evaluating the effects of Hibiscus sabdariffa on in vitro availability of lisinopril.Method: The availability of lisinopril alone and in presence of Hibiscus sabdariffa calyxes water extract was determined using dissolution apparatus (BP, 2013) set at 50 rpm and 37 °C in 900 mL of three different dissolution media [0.1 M HCl (simulated gastric pH), phosphate buffers pH 6.8 (simulated intestinal pH) and phosphate buffers pH 7.4 (simulated blood pH)]. Samples (5 mL) were withdrawn from the media at 5, 10, 15, 30, 45, and 60 min and replaced immediately with the same medium. Each sample was analysed for the lisinopril content released using UV spectrophotometry at 215, 210 and 215 nm in 0.1 M HCl, phosphate buffers pH 6.8 and phosphate buffers pH 7.4 respectively.Results: Results showed that the media has no effect on the dissolution profile of lisinopril alone, however, it was observed that 89.40 (lisinopril alone) and 92.62 % (lisinopril in the presence of Hibiscus sabdariffa) was released in simulated gastric pH. The corresponding contents of lisinopril observed in simulated intestinal pH were 89.40 and 92.51 %, while in simulated blood pH 89.40 and 91.95 % of lisinopril was released. The presence of Hibiscus sabdariffa significantly (p < 0.05) increased the in vitro availability of lisinopril in all the media.Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that coadministration of lisinopril with Hibiscus sabdariffa could enhance its in vitro availability consequent to the increased dissolution of lisinopril in simulated gastric, intestinal and blood pH.Keywords: Lisinopril, Interaction, Hibiscus sabdariffa, dissolutio

The role of energy prices in the Great Recession — A two-sector model with unfiltered data

We investigate the role of energy shocks during the Great Recession. We study the behaviour of the UK energy and non-energy intensive sectors firms in a real business cycle (RBC) model using unfiltered data. The model is econometrically estimated and tested by indirect inference. Output contraction during the Great Recession was largely caused by energy price and sector-specific productivity shocks, all of which are non-stationary and hence tend to dominate the sample variance decomposition. We also found that the channel by which the energy price shock reduces output in the model is via the terms of trade: these fall permanently when world energy prices increase and as substitutes for energy inputs are strictly limited there are few reactions via production channels. Therefore, there is no other way to balance the deteriorating current account than through lower domestic absorption

Characteristics of Different Type of Coarse Aggregate on Properties of High Performance Concrete

The weakest links of conventional cement concrete is often occurred at the transition zone around coarse aggregate particles and the bulk of the compressive load is also borne by the cement paste. However, in special concrete such as High Strength Concrete (HSC) and High Performance Concrete (HPC) where, the water/cement ratio is low and high content of cement constitute their characteristics, the bulk compressive load is borne by the aggregate. Therefore, the failure in such concrete is mostly through the aggregate. This study discussed the characteristics of different type of coarse aggregate with distinct size range, 20-14mm and 10-5mm on properties of high performance concrete. In this project, investigation such as Slump test and Unit weight were carried out on fresh properties, and also compressive strength and water absorption on hardened properties, in which, readings were taken at curing days of 7 days, 14 days, and 28 days. The water to cement ratio used is 0.35, 1% super plasticizer of  Conplast SP-430 were added, and the dosage of meta kaolin added was  0%, 7.5% and 15%. The HPC mix, grade M40concrete is designed as per ACI method. The result of the study indicated that the compressive strength increases with an increase in percentage of Metakaolin between 0% to 15% replacements. Basalt-mixed concrete gives higher compressive strength, followed by gneiss-mixed concrete, then granite-mixed concrete. It was also discovered that larger aggregate sizes (20mm-14mm) gives high compressive strength than smaller sizes (5mm-10mm). Therefore for optimum performance up to 15% replacement of Metakaolin can be used with 20mm-14mm sizes of basalt aggregate

Evaluation of heavy metals in agricultural soils from Katsina state Nigeria

This work contributes to the monitoring of Agricultural soil pollution in Katsina State, North western Nigeria by assessing the degree of heavy metal pollution in Agricultural soil samples. The study was conducted in the year 2017 within some catchment areas located within the 3 senatorial zones that constitute to make up the state (Katsina senatorial zone: Birchi, Dutsinma and Katsina; Daura senatorial zone: Daura, Ingawa and Zango; Funtua senatorial zone: Dabai, Funtua, Kafur, Malunfashi and Matazu).  Analysis for the concentration of these heavy metals; Cr, Cd, Fe, Ni, Mn, Pb and Zn was conducted by the use of AAS (by Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry) method. . Several indices were used to assess the metal contamination levels in the Agricultural soil samples, namely; Geo-accumulation Index (Igeo), Enrichment Factor (EF), Contamination Factor (CF), Degree of Contamination (Cd) and Pollution Load Index (PLI). The result of this study has shown that generally among the heavy metals evaluated, the highest concentration was observed for Fe (range: 20.195-38.347 ppm), followed by Zn (range: 0.528-1.134 ppm), Pb (range: 0.256-0.627 ppm), Mn (range: 0.261-0.572 ppm) and Cr (range: 0.093-0.344 ppm). While Cd has the lowest concentration (range: 0.022-0.043 ppm). For all the site sampled the heavy metal Ni was below detection level (BDL). From the results of heavy metals I-geo values, according to Muller’s classification,  soil samples from Birchi, Daura, Dutsinma, Kafur and Zango were unpolluted (class 0) while soil samples from Dabai, Funtua, Ingawa, Katsina, Malunfashi and Matazu are moderately polluted (class 1). The result for the enrichment factor has shown that with the exception of the heavy metal Fe, which shows significant enrichment for all the sites sampled all the other heavy metals show deficiency to minimal enrichment. Also based on the contamination factors for all soil samples the heavy metal Fe has a CF values range of 1.2861-2.3240, indicating that the Agricultural soil samples are moderately contaminated with Fe. In contrast, the rest of the heavy metals exhibit low contamination in general. The value of PLI ranges from 0.2408 to 0.4935, indicating unpolluted to moderate pollution, with the sampling site for Katsina displaying the highest PLI value while the sampling site of Ingawa has the lowest PLI. The Eri values for all samples are all < 40, presenting low ecological risk.  The results suggest that the Agricultural soils samples from Katsina state has low contamination by the heavy metals evaluated.Key words: Agricultural soils, Heavy metals, Katsina state, Pollution load index, Contamination factor

Impact of construction waste minimization at construction site: case study

Waste reduction in the construction sector is essential not just from the position of overall performance, but also interests escalated recently about the detrimental impact of the waste of construction materials on the natural surroundings. The reuse and recycling of construction elements used to be substantial due to material scarcity during the war and post-war era, specifically when the price of virgin materials keep inflating. Nevertheless, the motivation to reuse and recycle construction materials has fallen ever since the flow of raw materials has grown more consistent and satisfactorily. This paper involves an ongoing sequence of waste audits at Universiti Teknologi Petronas (UTP) R&D construction sites. The methodology consists of discussion, observation and quantitative evaluations of the kinds and distribution of wastes. The finding of this study demonstrates that the project aimed at both minimizing the volume of waste generated and diverting as much waste as possible from landfill that contribute to the recycle with over 1200 tonnes of material which constitute about 73% of recycle and reused rate mainly from timber and metal

The Effectiveness of Utilising the Building Information Modelling Based Tools for Safety Training and Job Hazard İdentification

The fields of architecture, engineering and construction (AEC) have kept pace with recent technological developments in design and construction. However, it is difficult to obtain information on the breadth of applications of BIM -based tools throughout the life cycle of construction projects. Hence, this study attempts to empirically identify and evaluate the applications of pre-construction tools, with a focus on safety training and workplace hazard recognition. A questionnaire in the form of a survey was used to collect data. The results show that the ten predictors account for 52.3% of the variation in BIM knowledge (F (10, 56) = 6.133, p < 0.001). It is also found that site analysis and safety instructions have no effect on the measured variable. The study represented a comprehensive blend of research to improve the use of BIM -based tools for safety training and workplace hazard identification. It also contributed to the knowledge of how to use BIM -based tools in the pre-construction phase. The development of the BIM -process flow framework for safety training and hazard identification will be the main focus of future work

4D BIM application in AEC industry: impact on integrated project delivery

As project delivery approaches that are supported by Building Information Modelling (BIM) are continuously acknowledged throughout the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) industry, an innovative modelling approach called 4D BIM is starting to develop, which associates elements of 3D BIM with time and scheduling information. Traditional construction planning applications like bar charts and network diagrams fail to present and communicate the spatial and temporal or 4D components of construction schedules efficiently. As a result, they do not permit project managers to produce scheduling alternatives quickly to obtain the finest solution to develop a particular design. With 4D modelling, the whole period of a sequence of activities that is executed by those involved in the project can be presented visually. With the rising interest in BIM and the wider use of this and other technological innovations in the AEC industry, 4D BIM tools, which has been broadly employed, is becoming increasingly recognized among fundamental technological fields under BIM. This study aims to highlight and review numerous impacts of 4D applications on Integrated Project Delivery (IPD) in the AEC industry and suggest the ideal strategy to optimize the tools for rapid project delivery

Evaluation of heavy metals in agricultural soils from Katsina State Nigeria

This work contributes to the monitoring of Agricultural soil pollution in Katsina State, North western Nigeria by assessing the degree of heavy metal pollution in Agricultural soil samples. Thestudy was conducted in the year 2017 within some catchment areas located within the 3 senatorial zones that constitute to make up the state (Katsina senatorial zone: Birchi, Dutsinma and Katsina; Daura senatorial zone: Daura, Ingawa and Zango; Funtua senatorial zone: Dabai, Funtua, Kafur, Malunfashi and Matazu). Analysis for the concentration of these heavy metals; Cr, Cd, Fe, Ni, Mn, Pb and Zn was conducted by the use of AAS (by Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry) method. . Several indices were used to assess the metal contamination levels in the Agricultural soil samples, namely; Geo-accumulation Index (Igeo), Enrichment Factor (EF), Contamination Factor (CF), Degree of Contamination (Cd) and Pollution Load Index (PLI). The result of this study has shown that generally among the heavy metals evaluated, the highest concentration was observed for Fe (range: 20.195-38.347 ppm), followed by Zn (range: 0.528-1.134 ppm), Pb (range: 0.256-0.627 ppm), Mn (range: 0.261-0.572 ppm) and Cr (range: 0.093-0.344 ppm). While Cd has the lowest concentration (range: 0.022-0.043 ppm).For all the site sampled the heavy metal Ni was below detection level (BDL). From the results of heavy metals I-geo values, according to Muller’s classification, soil samples from Birchi, Daura, Dutsinma, Kafur and Zango were unpolluted (class 0) while soil samples from Dabai, Funtua, Ingawa, Katsina, Malunfashi and Matazu are moderately polluted (class 1). The result for the enrichment factor has shown that with the exception of the heavy metal Fe, which shows significant enrichment for all the sites sampled all the other heavy metals show deficiency to minimal enrichment. Also based on the contamination factors for all soil samples the heavy metal Fe has a CF values range of 1.2861-2.3240, indicating that the Agricultural soil samples are moderately contaminated with Fe. In contrast, the rest of the heavy metals exhibit low contamination in general. The value of PLI ranges from 0.2408 to 0.4935, indicating unpolluted to moderate pollution, with the sampling site for Katsina displaying the highest PLI valuewhile the sampling site of Ingawa has the lowest PLI. The Eri values for all samples are all < 40, presenting low ecological risk. The results suggest that the Agricultural soils samples from Katsina state has low contamination by the heavy metals evaluated.Este trabajo contribuye al monitoreo de la contaminación del suelo agrícola en el estado de Katsina, noroeste de Nigeria, mediante la evaluación del grado de contaminación por metales pesados en muestras de suelo agrícola. El estudio se realizóen el año 2017 dentro de algunas áreas de captación ubicadas dentro de las 3 zonas senatoriales que constituyen el estado (zona senatorial de Katsina: Birchi, Dutsinma y Katsina; zona senatorial de Daura: Daura, Ingawa y Zango; zona senatorial de Funtua: Dabai, Funtua, Kafur, Malunfashi y Matazu). Análisis para la concentración de estos metales pesados; Cr, Cd, Fe, Ni, Mn, Pb y Zn se llevaron a cabo mediante el uso del método AAS (por espectrofotometría de absorción atómica). . Se utilizaron varios índices para evaluar los niveles de contaminación de metales en las muestras de suelo agrícola, a saber; Índice de geoacumulación (Igeo), Factor de enriquecimiento (EF), Factor de contaminación (CF), Grado de contaminación (Cd) e Índice de carga de contaminación (PLI). Elresultado de este estudio ha demostrado que, generalmente, entre los metales pesados evaluados, se observóla concentración más alta para Fe (rango: 20.195-38.347 ppm), seguido de Zn (rango: 0.528-1.134 ppm), Pb (rango: 0.256-0.627 ppm), Mn (rango: 0.261-0.572 ppm) y Cr (rango: 0.093-0.344 ppm). Mientras que Cd tiene la concentración más baja (rango: 0.022-0.043 ppm). Para todo el sitio muestreado, el Ni de metales pesados estaba por debajo del nivel de detección (BDL). De los resultados de los valoresde I-geo de metales pesados, según la clasificación de Muller, las muestras de suelo de Birchi, Daura, Dutsinma, Kafur y Zango no estaban contaminadas (clase 0), mientras que las muestras de suelo de Dabai, Funtua, Ingawa, Katsina, Malunfashi y Matazu sonmoderadamente contaminado (clase 1). El resultado del factor de enriquecimiento ha demostrado que, con la excepción del Fe de metales pesados, que muestra un enriquecimiento significativo para todos los sitios muestreados, todos los demás metales pesados muestran una deficiencia de enriquecimiento mínimo. También basado en los factores de contaminación para todas las muestras de suelo, el Fe de metales pesados tiene un rango de valores de CF de 1.2861-2.3240, lo que indica que las muestras de suelo agrícola están moderadamente contaminadas con Fe. En contraste, el resto de los metales pesados exhiben baja contaminación en general. El valor de PLI varía de 0.2408 a 0.4935, lo que indica contaminación no contaminada a moderada, con el sitio de muestreo para Katsina mostrando el valor de PLI más alto, mientras que el sitio de muestreo de Ingawa tiene el PLI más bajo. Los valores de Eri para todas las muestras son <40, presentando bajo riesgo ecológico. Los resultados sugieren que las muestras de suelos agrícolas del estado de Katsina tienen baja contaminación por los metales pesados evaluados